What's with the recent buzz there's a private Conservative poll that shows NDP support surging in the Edmonton region?

Is this a real Orange Wave, or is it just hair dye?

Specifically, is it orange hair dye selectively applied by professional creators of new political realities? Or is it evidence of a verifiable trend finally reaching critical mass? Or a little of both?

Here's what is known and verifiable: At least eight political polls were conducted in Alberta in 2011, some of better quality than others. Together, they demonstrated the NDP to be on a gradual but steady upward trend in support province-wide. There are said to be a couple more private polls out there that show much the same thing.

Fuelled by the economic crisis and inspired by the Arab Spring, the Occupy Wall Street movement has spread around the world.

Today marks one week of the movement across Canada and Quebec. Like all movements, there are a series of debates emerging that will determine its direction and success. Is occupation a tactic or a principle? Should the focus be on the internal procedures of those actively occupying, or outreach to broader communities and struggles? How do we build a movement of the 99 per cent?

The movement of the 99 per cent

In my previous two posts I discussed how neither a rise in left-wing sentiment nor a surge in support for the federalist option caused the "orange wave" in Quebec during the last federal election.

I will now offer my analysis of what happened during the federal election with regard to the outcome of the vote and, more specifically, suggest a number of issues on which progressives from Quebec and Canada can collaborate in the context of a Conservative majority government.

May 2nd election in Quebec

So, if it was not for the sake of Canada or Tommy Douglas, why did Quebecers vote for Jack Layton?

In my previous post, I addressed how Québec was not reinventing itself as a socialist haven. I will now attempt to show that the NDP's impressive showing in Quebec does not indicate a rejection of sovereignty.

What does Quebec want?

If the NDP's Quebec surge corresponded with a loss of steam in sovereigntist support, we might expect to see dwindling numbers of Quebecers willing to vote in favor of Quebec's separation from Canada. But is that the case?

Chart 1: In favour of sovereignty from November 2008 to May 2011

Leadership matters, so there is no question that the loss of Opposition Leader Jack Layton, even for a short time, will hurt the New Democratic Party.

Layton, who was already being treated for prostate cancer, told reporters yesterday that he has a new form of cancer and must step away from politics until September. But for most Canadians his appearance was a profound shock. This was especially so to those of us who had seen him in the flesh during last May's federal election campaign. So speculation about his future is natural and inevitable.

Can the New Democrats win the next Alberta provincial election?

OK, crazy thought. I was only kidding… I think.

But let's consider another crazy question that, nevertheless, is not quite so crazy: Can the Alberta New Democrats form the Opposition in the next provincial election, and maybe a government an election or two after that.

Impossible, you say? Maybe not if New Democrats can crawl out of the irrelevant protest-party box they've been sleeping in these past few years. No more impossible, at any rate, than New Democrats forming the government of Nova Scotia, or winning the hearts of well over 40 per cent of federal voters in Quebec.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is right about one thing: The Liberal Party of Canada is done like disco balls and bellbottoms.

Well, maybe not bellbottoms, actually. Bellbottom trousers have been showing up among the fashionistas again, as a stroll through The Sartorialist makes clear. But disco balls for sure.

(Last of a four-part series)

The politics of fear helped define the 2011 federal election.

For all of its darkness, fear also drove a lot of voters to consider new possibilities, to make new choices, including jumping on the orange wave.

The challenge for progressives wanting to ensure Canada maintains the promise of social justice that we briefly coalesced around post-war is to begin work immediately on a reframe: Our challenge is to change the conversation, rather than get trapped in the conversation that has been set for us (economy in peril).