The Liberal leadership race is close, and thanks to Stephen Harper, the candidates just got more divided among themselves, which could change the likely outcome.

By embracing the Québécois-forming-a-nation idea in the House of Commons, Harper was going back to 1968, when Marcel Faribeault, a high profile advocate of the “two founding nations” theory of confederation, was recruited by the old Progressive Conservatives to run alongside leader Robert Stanfield. Pierre Trudeau won that year, Fairibeault lost, Stanfield never did become Prime Minister, and the Conservatives had to wait for a Quebecer, Brian Mulroney, to sweep Quebec, after the departure of Trudeau.

Harper wants to make up lost ground in Quebec. He needs the old line Quebec nationalists known as les bleus in order to survive politically. To do that he was prepared to risk his support elsewhere in the country. But he bet, correctly, that the Liberals would back him in the House of Commons, giving those opposed to his motion no party to support instead of the Conservatives.

The Liberal Party would rather not debate their own motion recognizing Quebec (unlike Harper’s motion, the province itself, and not just its French-speaking residents) as a nation, but Gerard Kennedy seized on being the only one of the top four Liberal candidates willing to oppose the Harper gambit, and sought refuge from an early exit at the convention in product differentiation. In marketing language: “Choose me, I am the only one who supports what you want, one Canada.”

The sub-text is that Trudeau’s ghost will be in attendance in Montreal, thanks to Harper, and not just because Justin Trudeau and prominent Trudeauite Tom Axworthy will be there to support Kennedy.Second tier candidates Ken Dryden and Joe Volpe voted against the resolution in the House. This diminished the novelty of Kennedy’s stance; however, it did not affect the ability of the one Canada phantom to polarize delegate support at the leadership convention.

Going into the convention speeches this coming Friday in Montreal (followed immediately by the first ballot), frontrunner Michael Ignatieff is still first, and first is still the best place to be. Two polling firms, Ekos and the Strategic Counsel, report Stéphane Dion topping the others as the second choice of delegates in voting intentions. That makes him a player: either as king-maker or compromise candidate.

Prime Minister Harper’s support for Québécois forming a nation (within a united Canada) helps Ignatieff who seemed to be losing his lustre, and was having trouble securing second ballot support, trailing the other three top tier candidates in this category.

With 31-33 per cent on the first ballot, Ignatieff only needs just more than one in four other delegates (26-28 per cent of the remaining 67 per cent) to win a majority. To do this he will need third choice, and even fourth choice votes, as he is only showing eight per cent second ballot support.

Dion looks best on the second ballot, pulling over 20 per cent to add to his likely 17 per cent on the first ballot. Though those undecided about their second ballot choice represent nearly half the delegates, maintaining his lead would put him second, ahead of Bob Rae, and in a position to be the ABI (anyone but Ignatieff) candidate, which is the only way he can win.

With the Quebec nation issue on the table, Dion inspires more confidence in undecided delegates outside Quebec than Ignatieff does, and only Dion can appeal to the alternating principle (a French- speaking leader follows an English-speaking leader) that has served the Liberals so well.

Bob Rae wins if he can be in the last two on a final ballot. If Dion ends up third, his support will go to Rae, with or without an endorsement from the candidate. If Ignatieff ends up third, his Quebec support would likely go to Rae, not Dion who represents the hard line on Quebec, costing him support in his own province.

Dion looks good on the environment which is the weakest issue for the Conservatives, and the Liberals will be greening themselves at this convention. A 70 page policy paper will be pushed by task force chair, noted environmentalist, and leading party insider Desiree McGraw, who says it is greener than that which the Green Party offers.

Thanks to Harper, Ignatieff lives to win from the front, and though Kennedy cannot win (his French rules him out) he gets to play the spoiler, de-railing Rae, Dion or both of them by invoking the spirit of Trudeau. Rae has offered the least in substantive policy ideas, but could position himself as the healer the party needs.

Either Dion or Ignatieff can remind delegates why they are liberals, and why most Canadians are as well. Dion can impress on delegates why Quebecers are also Canadians, and talk about restoring trust in Canada in the world, from his experience chairing the UN climate change conference in Montreal. He could win from the podium with a strong speech.

Calling Quebec a nation was an attempt by Ignatieff to diffuse the stress on Canadian unity arising from the co-existence of two linguistic communities.

Following his lead, Harper may have succeeded in reminding Liberals of their divisions over Quebec, a party not yet recovered from years of internal struggle between warring factions, notably in Quebec, where the provincial party is led by a Harper ally.

Duncan Cameron

Duncan Cameron

Born in Victoria B.C. in 1944, Duncan now lives in Vancouver. Following graduation from the University of Alberta he joined the Department of Finance (Ottawa) in 1966 and was financial advisor to the...