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I can't easily get to the Herald article where Mills talked about those CRA poll results.
But he expanded on them on a speech to the Chamber of Commerce. He said an NDP minority governemnt was expected. That they had done seat projection totals and it came out 22 NDP, 17 Libs, 13 PCs [with caveat my memory mat have fudged the PC/Lib seats].
He said the polling has been very stable for over a year- that the seat projections would have been essentially the same any time had they run them.... that they chose to do them and announce now because an election seems imminent.
.....And it looks like either the Tories have testing that tells them the 'Risky NDP' theme will work, or just that they don't have anything else to do.
More on the way: New Tory Ads. Campaign similar to one party launched last month that put price tag on NDP promises
http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotia/1111828.html
I can think of one way the ads would work. The NS Lib vote has collapsed back from polling for a few elections now, the strength of the brand doesn't make into the polling booth. Mill's seat projections would have taken some account of that. But at bottom- those are soft votes.
So polarizing the vote has potential benefits for the PCs even if it does little or no good in bringing the NDP down. The ads have been extended to include the Libs, and I bet testing has told them that votes that do shake loose mostly go to them rather than the Libs.
But none of that- if it is and/or becomes true in the first place- changes the unmistakable aura of desperation. I'm not in NS now, but I expect broadcast and print media commentary will view this skeptically or worse.
They may have enough money to run the ads a lot... andeven if the vast majority it has no or negative effect on.... it can still help decide a slice of the electorate... good enough for an outfit looking to save the furniture.
If I were the Tories, I would focus partly on Liberal voters. If they can keep the Liberal vote low, they can hold their current seat total and force the NDP to run hard in less than competitive ridings. It looks like they are going for a "stop the NDP" strategy, which depends on the Liberal vote getting squeezed as people fear for the election of an NDP government.
The NDP on the other hand has to directly undermine the Tory vote in many ridings. They are going to need to hit on a lot of old Tory themes about responsibility and such.
I doubt those ads have had any traction! None, other than with the converted. I almost wish the NDP's mottos was Take a Risk, Vote NDP, lol (Kidding) Seriously, the real risk IS either of the other two!