Thanks for those 2 updates, OO - Ménard is being very vague and ambigious in that article- saying he has nothing to announce "yet" and that he is still reflecting on how best to serve his constituents.  It's the kind of thing you say when you know you are going to run but you want to keep your cushy MP job for a few more months without being criticized.  I like Ménard a lot, though, and he's toyed with running provinicially before and then declined, so it's still up in the air.  I know Rocheleau and the NDP organization in the riding are working to prepare for a possible by-election.

Dion will be gone by the end of the year, I predict.  Either there will be an election this fall and he won't run again, or he'll resign his seat to accept a university post or international position as per the speculation in the article. 

I predict May will not run in any of the by-elections.  She is nowhere in Quebec, her French is shaky, and New West-Coquitlam is not a good fit for the Green message. She'll run in the next general election and then resign unless she wins a seat, which is less likely than ever, IMHO.