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Hopefully come 2013 the NDP will have a better leader, be more organised so they can win. I am shocked Oppal won by so much as well.
Well, BC is lost, Green Party has fulfilled their function, and thus bear culpability for what will now happen.
Knew they would get less than what polls showed, and indeed they got well less than 10%, though they got just enough to play the spoiler, well done at returning Gordo to power and destroying the province environmentally. Congratulations on your win, that will be a loss for us all.
STV is going down to a resounding defeat along with the Green Party. Says much actually.
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Conservative party leader finishes in 3rd place in his riding
Why would the NDP replace a leader who got more votes than Harcourt, Barrett or Clark and who increased her popular vote every time out?
How about all those babblers who declared Carole's stance on the carbon tax would ruin her? She got more votes.
Who's to say those green voters would have all voted NDP. Liberals had the carbon tax, Greens are in favor of that type of thing. Even if the green vote was split 50/50, Gordo wins still. It appears a larger portion of the BC population likes Libs more than Dippers and the voter is always right, whether we like it or not.
They wouldn't
Nice to see places like Prince George-Mackenzie voted Liberal. Geez, is there something in the water up there?
CBC Projects that STV Fails
Come on the people in PrinceGeorge-Mackenzie exercised their right to vote as the saw fit. Ya have to live with the results and not insult those that voted differently than you. It's not the water, it's the message that they heard that had them elect the person they did.
Oh grow up, no one was questioning their right to vote. But if half your town has either moved away or is packing and you vote for "4 more years!" then I hope they won't mind if I don't shed a tear for them.
No one is asking you to shed a tear, these people will live with their vote. It is obvious that 55% of them like the Libs, live with it. It has no impact on your life how that community voted just as your vote has no impact on their community.
Actually, as long as Mackenzie is part of BC their vote does have an effect on me and vice versa. I didn't see it but I hear Joy Macphail was pretty shocked at Mackenzie too.
I thought the NDP's axe the tax campaign was going to deliver the vote outside Vancouver?
Carole's speech about working together with Gordon Cambell was a pretty good example of why the NDP has been such an ineffectual opposition.
Electoral reform got defeated so we are guaranteed to an eternity of more whining about splitting the vote from whichever party is in second place in the polls.
Just a few observations:
- The NDP failed to make gains in the Interior, and may even have a loss or two. It appears those voters reacted with fear to the economic collapse. I didn't expect this to this extent, but it shows what a city dweller I am.
- Suburban Vancouver was better for the NDP than expected. I don't think there are any loses, although no more than one or two gains.
- We must throw out the notion that there are more wasted Liberal votes. Look at the huge majorities many NDP MLAs received. At the same time, look at places like Chilliwack or some Okanagan seats to see smaller Liberal pluralities. The NDP vote is no longer efficient.
- The Greens are fading away. As I mentioned earlier, it was an abysmal campaign. There is nothing good for them here. If they elect another ineffective leader they will get thrown out of the debates.
The winner is Angus Reid and online election polling. It looks like the popular vote will end up being quite close about 45.7 to 42.2 - and they projected 44-42. All the telephone polls were projecting a big Liberal lead of 8-10 points.
[sarcasm]But...but...anybody can vote multiple times in these "push polls" [sarcasm]
I'm delighted to see the so-called Green party crushed like a bug on the sidewalk.
Correction: the NDP won Stikine, so did gain an interior seat.
Considering how close a lot of ridings were its pretty clear the Greens had an impact. Too bad the BC NDP did such an awful job of crafting a message capable of winning over swing Green voters.
It'll be interesting to see what direction the two parties go. Hopefully, this is the end of Sterk, with a charismatic young left leaning leader the Greens could become a factor especially if the NDP continues its bland rightwing drift.
The pundits in BC claim the NDP has moved to the Left under James and needs to move to the centre in order to gain power. Babblers say the party has moved to the Right and needs to move Left to gain power.
Strangely, I disagree with both.
- In fact, the Greens were the key factor in the NDP loss of what was clearly a winnable election. Just look at the NDP-Lib gap in - incumbent losses like Vancouver-Fairview and possibly Cariboo-Chilcoltin and incredibly close NDP 2nd place finishes in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Comox Valley, Vancouver Fraserview, Burnaby North and you'll see the Green vote is equal or less to that gap. Combine the Green vote-split with an abysmal voter turnout (50% province wide, a record low) and it's clear the NDP had a path to victory if they could have inspired more young people to vote and unified the anti-Campbell vote by siphoning Green support. Yes, I do claim that "axe the tax" lost this election for the NDP and Carole James.
- The NDP vote went down 2% in the Interior, was flat in the Lower Mainland and went up 3-4% on the Island (the NDP is leading Murray Coell in Saanich Gulf-Islands, which is absolutely incredible!). The axe-the-tax campaign did absolutely no good for the NDP in the North and Interior - we couldn't even win Kootenay East against the loony redneck Bill Bennett, even with the Conservative leader running in the riding. Angus Reid said on CTV that the "axe the tax" campaign was the worst political blunder the NDP ever made, and he's correct.
- This was the last campaign for both James and Campbell - Gordo will stay for the Olympics and then step down within a year. Carole's speech and body language tonight signalled to me that she won't be running again and she said she would "reflect on her future" in scrums. Yes, she did increase her vote in 2005 and 2008, and she is a very strong communicator and campaigner, but she has violently alienated a key part of the base and we won't get the small-g green voters back until James is replaced.
- The carbon tax is here to stay - by 2013, it will be at $30/tonne and just like the GST, it will be impossible to find a politically acceptable alternative to raise that much revenue. Carole didn't mention ax the tax in her concession speech tonight and I don't think you'll hear those 3 words from NDP reps in the future.
- STV and electoral reform are dead for the next 10 years at least.
"Considering how close a lot of ridings were its pretty clear the Greens had an impact. Too bad the BC NDP did such an awful job of crafting a message capable of winning over swing Green voters. "
That's not true at all, the Green vote got driven down to less than 8% of the vote even less than in 2005. That is the core "none of the abive" vote - there is virtually nothing left to squeeze from that.
Stockholm, if you think the Greens didn't have an impact then you aren't looking at the results by riding. West Coast Lefty has provided a good list in the post above, educate yourself. The NDP fucked up, they alienated voters who they needed and it cost them.
There is a lot of good news for the NDP in this election - they are deeply rooted in many parts of BC, the incumbents did a great job in holding their seats, and they can form a vigorous oppostion to the Campbell government. Strong new MLAs like Lana Popham in Saanich South and Michelle Mungal in Nelson Creston will help renew the party and build bridges to the environmental movement. It will be harder for Gordo to get away with more draconian cuts to programs with 37 NDP MLAs on his back. With a strong new leader in 2013 who has a positive message of hope and environmental sustainability, the NDP will have a very good chance of forming government next time. What won't work is more "Gordon Campbell is evil" "ax the carbon tax' negative messaging- people are sick of that approach to politics, and that is what drives vote-splitting with the Greens and record low voter turnout.
So, as I said, if James had conceded on axe the tax and if she had supported stv if it got 50%, stv would still have lost, she would have got a tonne of extra green votes and the votes of liberals who believe in one person one vote in referenda and might well have won.
Good old Carole. When the left has friends like Carole James, it is easy for sleaseballs to win.
You can agree to disagree with Sazukki but you know what, he will still have a job in 6 months.
And the people of bc chose the carbon tax.
No matter what the NDP says or does in a two party system, 8% voting none of the above/so-called Green is as low as it will ever go. If the Green vote was 15%, ou MIGHT have a case, but at 8% NO.
"but she has violently alienated a key part of the base"
People who were upset that the NDP didn't support Campbell's policies may be a lot of things but they are certainly not the NDP's "base".
"The NDP fucked up, they alienated voters who they needed and it cost them. "
They didn't gain the support of voters who wouldn't vote for them anyway but did gain votes overall. More votes than Clark, Harcourt and Barrett. The NDP did a great job and I hope Carole stays on for another 4 years. Maybe the best leader the NDPO has ever had.
Negative ads work. The Liberals have been very negative going right back to 1996. Every election the airwaves are full of Liberal attack ads. They do it because its successful in framing the NDP.