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More nonsense. Both statements. and what is your source of what goes on in the NS NDP? the inner circles no less?
The fabrications by Marritimarr just keep on getting bigger, and I suppose others will soon come here and manufacture more too the closer to election time it gets.
"I wouldn't say a leader "deserves credit" for wins but maybe a federal NDP leader does have potential to alienate people from a combined federal/provincial party."
Well since the latest polls are pointingt to a big NDP landslide win in Nova Scotia - i guess by your logic Jack layton deserves all the credit!
Who is Nova Insights anyway?
Presumably someone trying to raise their profile by doing this. But beyond that...
I see they use an ongoing panel that is smalish, and leaves them with a margin of error of 5%.
It is a small firm in Kentville - good people runnning it and they are not NDP which makes the result interesting to me. And also curious about their motives, if any - other than promotion if that. I just hope they are right - I do not believe the seat projections, I have taught stats and cannot see any reliable seat projection based on 8 voters per seat. I will listen to the canvessers and that lookslike an NDP govt alright but a maj, don't know? Too many undeicideds or won't say or I always voted Tory but don't want to now, etc.
Re the Liberal- they are getting way too much publicity (and POSITIVE publicity, sigh!) given their seats in the house but then again, many media ppl are Liberal soooo..........
"I do not believe the seat projections, I have taught stats and cannot see any reliable seat projection based on 8 voters per seat."
I don't think that they're seat projection has anything to do with the results of interviewing 8 people per riding. That would be nuts. They probably simply set up a spreadsheet with the results in each riding from 2006 when the popular vote was PCs 40%, NDP 35% and then they simply added 10% across the board to the NDP assuming 45% province wide and substracted 15% from the PCs and then you look at how the seats change hands. Any two year old can do that! Its pretty obvious to me that if the NDP actually took 45% of the vote, they would almost certainly get about 33-35 seats.
The "Musical Chairs' Party (A.K.A. The Greens) are keeping the bodies moving around, according to today's Chronicle Herald.
They had 5 of their previously nominated candidates drop out, then somehow came up with 5 more breathing bodies to take their places before the nominations closed on Tuesday.
As for the poll showing the NDP that far ahead at this point, I'll wait and see if another poll from a more familiar polling firm gives any similar results.
Stay tuned!
http://www.novainsights.ca/Company_Info.php
The founder and President of Nova Insights is Paul DesBarres. He brings 14 years of experience to clients in the market research industry. Paul built his experience working in the U.S. for a diverse client list including major universities, lobbyists, international music companies, major newspapers, entertainment companies, and professional and amateur sports organizations. In Canada, he has worked for various government departments, political parties, ad agencies, public relations firms, social marketing organizations, educational institutions, and the gaming industry.
Paul DesBarres has a passion for market research rooted in his drive and ability to be a voice for the public. He sees his role as ensuring the voice is representative of the target market, and providing a language of interpretation that the client finds actionable. Being an independent third-party, Paul can provide the unbiased opinions of customers, employees, voters, or the general public that clients need to hear.
Paul grew up in Sheffield Mills, Nova Scotia (the eagle capital of North America) and received his education at Acadia University.
Paul began his career with the Becker Institute of Boston. Becker has a long history as New England’s first name in survey research, and provided a vital foundation where Paul specialized in higher education and public policy research.
I wonder whether after being so accurate in the BC election, Angus Reid will do an online poll in Nova Scotia?
I don't believe the Nova Insights poll. That's too much of a shift too fast. As of the debates most polls had the PCs a firm third, and McNeil having shot up, and then shooting up more after the debate in which he generally avoided mudslinging and stuck to substance. That may well have tailed off or been a misimpression, but it certainly was the impression lots of folks had here last week.
The NDP began running more substantive ads, that certainly helped. They responded to the rural ER question. Maybe they could get smart and do as I suggest and leave the HST on coal power and use the money to pay for conservation programs or help for the poor. But if the Nova Insights poll is right, then the NDP rise is a result of directly responding to rural concerns such as ER closures.
Charles, the vote of any third party in the legislature is inefficient by any definition. That Cape Breton vote was pared back quite a bit (to the bone, really) in recent years so it's probably not as inefficient as it used ot be. But consider the last twenty or so years, which demonstrates an ability to bounce back very fast when a Liberal can win. So maybe we can agree that there's a "shallow" vote that easily shifts to whoever can beat the Tory, and by that measure the NDP vote is presently more efficient. But there's also a "deep" vote that will be "parked" with someone else but wants to vote Liberal when the Liberals present a decent program or leader.
Stockholm, you have not answered with any more credible scenario. The shift from "no deals, ever, and they're unethical and unprincipled" when Dion and May dealt, to the "sure, we'll deal" in the coalition (with the Bloc, yet) has yet to be fully explained. We have never heard the NDP leadership explain when dealing or seat swapping or vote swapping is ethical and when it is not, leaving us to the (correct) conclusion that it's ok when the NDP fulltime staff decide their own interests are aligned with it, and it's not when the NDP fulltime staff decide it isn't. That is, the NDP responds only to the interests of its fulltime staff or public sector unions, not to citizens.
It's not only Rodney MacDonald and Bob Rae that have concluded that.
One could also define inefficiency in a way that it counts as doubly inefficient (or some ratio) to elect someone who will undo all the policies you favour. That is, someone who votes NDP in Central Nova in a federal election, guaranteeing Peter MacKay's return, has done more damage than simply not electing their own candidate. By that measure, over the last few decades, NDP votes have been about as efficient as ... [fill in your favourite boondoggle here, me listing one will only get me accused of being in a party]. That line of reasoning doesn't fit Nova Scotia very well though as none of the three major parties seem to really have much of an ideology nor any huge policy differences. And in practice whoever wins will have to cut deals to pass budgets, unless we get the worst of all possible outcomes which would be a rookie NDP majority. Which would explode exactly the way Bob Rae's did in Ontario, for the same reasons.
An NDP government would hardly be any more neophyte than any other party except the one currently ousted, which was a neophyte in its own right at one time. The "Liberal" government would be too for that matter should they have ever had a chance at winning.
?!? She was a card-carrying NDP member in the Layton vs. Blaikie race, and explicitly endorsed Blaikie.
I guess they're so big you can't wrap them in words to point them out.
On planet Stockholm where "wouldn't" = "would" maybe. By my actual avowed logic (which you quoted but did not read?), Layton deserves blame if they blow it, but no credit if the NDP-NS win. This position is similar to that held by Audrey McLaughlin who argued in 2001 that the federal/provincial unified membership of the NDP was a liability and ought to end: that it simply subjected politicians at both levels of government to criticism that should have fallen to the other, and didn't let the parties follow diverse or even slightly variant strategies. So there's at least one NDPer that thinks provincial priorities can really screw up the federal party or its priorities (*Central Nova* cough cough).
Where do I bet heavily against this? Where does every household in rural NS bet against this? Oh, wait, at the polls, right...
FINALLY, a substantive seat by seat opinion. That's a start. So, what seats are the NDP going to gain and where are they at risk? Here's a start:
In Queens, Conrad is at risk of losing to Morash who has been shamelessly promoted by municipal politicians, and where she benefitted from no Liberal last time.
The Liberal in Lunenburg is so weak, due to his being associated with the destroyers-on-the-waterfront debacle, that Zwicker will likely retain this for the PCs against Birdsall. It doesn't help that her roots are in the smaller of the two communities (she's from Mahone Bay, he from Lunenburg where he was on Council).
Bolivar-Getson in Lunenburg West vs. Gary Ramey is hard to call, but it's clear her base is the rural areas and his in Bridgewater. The Liberal, Mark Furey, might do more harm to Ramey due to being perceived more as a from-town candidate, but this is unclear. Because he's a police officer he might draw more from the PCs, who knows? This is probably the hardest of the three seats to call.
Like I said, she may have once been a member in any or all of the parties for the purposes of supporting someone in a nomination race. That most definitely does not make her a 'member' or partisan or like-minded in the way you were using it.
[And for the record, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in whether or not it really happened if May did say she took out an NDP membership once. She makes stuff up all the time. I'm sure she really means it for the moment at least... But thats really beside the point. she has always been less then friendly to the NDP. And has been anything from basically disposed to very enthusiastic for the LPC. IE, given just about anything she can grab onto, the LPC is great. And barring some obvious things she has to concede in its favour, the NDP sucks.]
Come to think of it, it looks like the two of you may have a lot in common. Granted, its a bit difficult to penetrate all of your spiels... and I have a whole lot less to go on with you... but the preliminary looks familiar.
The Chronicle Herald has been really giving the Liberals an easy ride as of late. I think in their bizarre editorial minds, they think this a way to provide balance in a campaign where the Tories are moribund and the NDP has been cooly coasting to election day. No amount of blowing should prop up that limp balloon that is MacNeill's Liberal party, I hope. It'd seem terrifying to have such an inexperienced, flash-in-the-pan politician running the show in NS. The Liberal platform is a gaping target.
As much as I would like to see Hfx Clayton Park go NDP, I suspect - as I said in the last election - that Diana Whalen has too high of a profile for her to loose that seat to us. (sigh!). So I do not see a change there but it will be close and that is a transition kind of riding. It has even been Tory though Diana W has held it through two elections now.
As for Eliz. May I do have to say in her defense even if I do not vote for her that she is not nasty to the NDP. Possibly she has said things she should not have- she has a habit of opening her mouth and saying critical comments of certain policies but who among us is perfect. Certainly not me. Of course she is Green now but I know in Cape Breton we argue with her constantly about taking votes from the NDP and she takes it in good humour. So, I do not know why we have to tear someone down merely because we disagree with them.
It is not good debating skills. One only has to look at the nasty uncalled for comments on YouTube. I think we can debate without stopping to being critical of personal individuals.
The Liberals under MacNeil have more experience in government than the NDP... Dexter and his merry band have exactly 0 (zero) years experience running a government, whilst members of the Liberals that are re-offering I believe have a combined 23 years experience in cabinet.
I'm a Tory, however this time I'm supporting the Liberals because they are the only party that is being honest with the people while presenting a fully costed platform. I trust MacNeil with the economy, I do not trust Dexter... How can you seriously trust a man that doesn't dedicate more than 2 sentences in his party's 2 page platform pamplet to the economy, the most important issue in the campaign.
It's hard to ask this without insulting you, but, how, exactly, does someone who reads so little about the campaign that they cannot spell the simple name McNeil, become an expert in the Chronicle-Herald's coverage, or the Liberal platform, or anything whatsoever?
Just to avoid the accusation now of being anti-NDP (which you can get on babble simply for not drinking orange Kool-Aid I guess) it's time to trash someone else. Ecology Action Centre ran a fluff debate where they didn't ask any difficult questions. http://thechronicleherald.ca/Election/1124124.html
Some obvious questions that should have been asked:
- Why is Nova Scotia Power not upgrading its grid right now to an electronically monitored one like NB and NL have done? Why is it still sending out trucks and guys with ladders in winter storms to get power back online slower, with higher emissions and more long term waste (because they can't even see the power faults until something blows up). (Obama has also announced the US will do what Australia has done, smarten up the grid by deploying fibre everywhere - NS might be the last place in North America to do it).
- Speaking of smart grids, when can we charge electric cars in Nova Scotia? (this requires a smart grid to do the charging off peak)
- Why did the MacDonald Conservatives accept an inadequate universal broadband plan based on Motorola Canopy when it's slow, known not to work perfectly in heavy weather, through trees or at long distances? When using powerlines instead (BPL) delivers gigabit with no masts or wiring changes, and makes conservation programs in the home and peak levelling easy to run? (See this: http://blog.ds2.es/ds2blog/2009/04/ibec-and-ibm-bring-smart-grid-technol... - also there isn't going to be a lot of telework over 512kbps upload, and it's quite likely that Voice over IP and other basic broadband may not work at all - the US and AU plans rely on using power and maintenance savings in the home and grid to pay for real universal wired broadband).
(if you doubt broadband is an energy issue you need to read this http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8043397.stm )
- People come from all over the world to tour Nova Scotia by bicycle. When are they going to be able to take a bus that accomodates bicycles to and from the areas they want to tour? People come to Nova Scotia by ferry to Yarmouth, cruise ship to Halifax and possibly eventually to Shelburne. When are they going to be able to move between these cities conveniently without renting cars?
- Why is it impossible to insure a rarely-used car, or difficult to insure a shared car, in this province? How is bus use or active lifestyles supposed to increase if people who have a vehicle are forced to pay insurance for it even when it's in the driveway and doing nothing? Why is NS the most expensive province in Canada to move around in?
"I don't believe the Nova Insights poll. That's too much of a shift too fast. As of the debates most polls had the PCs a firm third, and McNeil having shot up, and then shooting up more after the debate in which he generally avoided mudslinging and stuck to substance."
Most polls......? Like which ones? There has only been one other poll since the election was called and that was the CRA one which had the NDP at 37% (up 1% since March) and the Liberals at 31% (unchanged) and the PCs at 28% (down two since March) - there have been no other polls - so this notion of that the Liberals ever "shot up" after the debate is pure fantasy. PREMIER Darrel Dexter - get used to it.
It was the commentators, rather than the polls, that reported a positive response to McNeil after the debates. Not sure if any numbers were attached to that. But if it's a "pure fantasy" it's one that was shared by most of the mass media in NS. Some sort of mass delusion?
Premier Dexter doesn't bother me much, but if he wins based on promises he can't keep, he's going to burn someone, and given he's most likely to burn his new rural constituents to placate his Halifax base, he probably won't hold on to the Premier's chair for very long.
Does anyone really doubt McNeil saying neither the NDP nor PCs can possibly balance the budget? Lying will only get one so far. Even in a province that has elected 'em often. So if that's how Dexter wins, it's not much to brag about. It could turn out very much like Ontario, a one-term majority which ends in all the talent leaving the party and the public distrusting it because it can't honestly set out a program and keep to it. Dexter may well be secretly hoping for a minority if only so the blame for not keeping these hefty promises can be spread around.
They don't have a forum on this NS election but you can see the electionprediction.org debates about the 2008 federal in NS. Some of the same dynamics apply. Including predictions that South Shore would go NDP when in fact it remained in Conservative (Keddy) claws. http://electionprediction.org/2007_fed/p_12ns.html
Barely. It was the closest seat in the region and the NDP came with a few hundred votes of winning it; it was a reasonable call to make as the results bore out. Like it not the NDP vote along the South Shore is stable and we've seen steady growth there for two federal and two provincial elections now...
"It was the commentators, rather than the polls, that reported a positive response to McNeil after the debates."
Oh EXCUSE ME! The COMMENTATORS - forgive me for not bowing and scraping before the wisdom of the pundits and commentators - which in Nova Scotia consists of what - two people? If there is one thing that has been clear for the past few years its that 90% of the time the pundits are dead wrong.
Up-date here in Lunenburg!
An additional 100 signs had to be ordered after the 500 signs that the NDP started the election with ran out in two weeks and the extra 100 they ordered at that time were gone as of yesterday!
To quote Bob Dylan...
'The times, they are a changin'!'
Stay tuned!