Okay, re Ontario, using the "incumbent/target/no hope" formula delineated in another thread (and bearing in mind "no hopers" are still to be taken seriously in a 308-seat strategy)...here's something quick + haphazard

AJAX-PIC: no hope unless the 905 votes in more of a Greater Vancouver fashion; then someone like Kevin Modeste could be competitive

ALG-MAN: incumbent; maybe safer than it looks

ADFW: possible target, depending on how much Liberal/Green and "Reform populist" vote can be tacked onto the Dundas/Westdale base

BARRIE: no hope--but second place possibility

BEACHES-EY: still a supertarget, even if Minna's remained invincible

BRAM-GORE-MAL: no hope

BRAMP-SPR: probably no hope, though NDP overachieved in '04 due to the Dhalla appointment schism

BRAMP W: no hope

BRANT: medium target--20%+ in '04 + '06; Derek Blackburn past

BRUCE-GREY-OS: any hope's been snuffed by the Greens

BURLINGTON: no hope

CAMBRIDGE: close 3rd means there's still hope in this baby yet

CARLETON-MM: no hope even in Doogie Munterland

C-K-ESSEX: targetable, thanks to 20%+ in '06 + economic factors

DAVENPORT: target

DVE: no hope

DVW: no hope, though David Sparrow proved you can make the most of a no-hoper

DUFF-CAL: no hope, except maybe for second

DURHAM: maybe targetable if on a roll--proximity to Oshawa helps, and McKeever did well for a withdrawn candidate; second place within reach

EG-LAW: no hope

ELGIN-MID-LON: possible hope, at least for second place; close third in '08 + geography and economic factors help

ESSEX: target, esp. w/o Susan Whelan

ETOB C: no hope

ETOB-LS: probably no hope given representation; but riding history justifies making the most of it

ETOB N: hitherto underrated; '08 proves worth targeting

GLEN P+R: no hope

GUELPH: still target against the Green grain; Green + NDP outpolled either Lib or Con in '08

HALD-NOR: no hope

HALIB-KL-BR: hope for 2nd

HALTON: no hope

HAM C: incumbent; safe

HAM E-SC: incumbent; vulnerable to repatriated Liberal vote

HAM MTN: incumbent; maybe similarly vulnerable, unless Liberal + Tory cancel each other out

HUR-BRU: no hope on paper; but they work hard against the stigma

KENORA: target

KINGSTON + I: targetable, esp. if Milliken retires

KITCH CEN: urban core = targetable

KITCH CON: likely no hope, though a surprising base in S Kitchener and '08's last-minute candidate overachieved

KITCH WAT: less targetable than Cen; more targetable than Con

LAMBTON-K-M: no hope, but Wallaceburg a NDP pocket flailing to get out

LAN-FRON-L+A: no hope, except maybe for 2nd

LEEDS-GREN: no hope but for 2nd

LON-FAN: incumbent, survived surprisingly well but still threatened at both ends

LON-NC: targetable, but Glen Pearson's incumbency and left-compatibility may cancel things out

LON W: judging from 20%+ in '06, even this is targetable

MARKHAM--no hope, but 10%+ in '08 a shocker

MISSISSAUGA x 5--no hope for any of them unless an NDP "ethnic strategy" is in place

NEPEAN-C: no hope

NEWM-AUR: no hope

NIAGARA FALLS: plausible target, esp. w/an NDP MP now next door

NIAGARA W-GB: no hope, through ripples from Hamilton felt

NICKEL BELT: incumbent

NIPISSING: underrated but targetable

NORTHUMBERLAND: historically no hope, but lately tried hard to be viable

OAK R-MAR: no hope

OAKVILLE: no hope

OSHAWA: supertarget

OTTAWA CEN: incumbent; *maybe* watch those Liberals

OTTAWA-ORL: no hope

OTTAWA S: no hope, Mazigh in '04 notwithstanding

OTTAWA-VAN: slight hope--well, if any other seat besides OC jumps...

OTTAWA W-NEP: no hope

OXFORD: probably no hope, but surprisingly close 3rd in '08

PARKDALE-HP: GK probably knocks it down the target list, but there's no harm in still trying

PS-MUSKOKA: no hope--but maybe second; who knows

PERTH-WEL: targetable if Stratford had more clout

PETERBORO: targetable according to '06 (*not* '08) results

PICK-SCAR E: no hope

PE-HASTINGS: likely no hope, unless a Jodie Jenkins runs

RENFREW-N-P: no hope as long as C Gallant's there

RICHM HILL: no hope

ST CAT: targetable a la NF; even "strategic voting" couldn't bring NDP % significantly down

ST P: targetable w/a "Paul Summerville" strategy *ahem*

SARNIA-L: surprisingly targetable; rare case of NDP ahead of Lib for 2nd

SSM: incumbent, but never one with a strong lead

SCARB-AG: weakest NDP in Scarberia; but ethnicity = "potential"

SCARB CEN: surprisingly good '08 result (15%+) means, should be targetable according to "Scarborough strategy"

SCARB-GW: targetable through parameters set provincially in '07

SCARB-RR: another '08 surprise; worth pursuing a la Etob N

SCARB-SW: strongest NDP history in Scarb; therefore targetable

SIMC-GREY: no hope; maybe second

SIMC N: no hope; maybe second if Penetang makes a big shift

SDG: no hope

SUDBURY: incumbent; most vulnerable

THORNHILL: no hope

TBA/TBN: incumbents

TJB: incumbent

TOR CEN: took step from targetability back to no-hopedom last time--unnecessarily so

TOR-DAN: incumbent; but even Jack should warch his back

TRIN-SPA: incumbent; but vulnerable w/changing demos

VAUGHAN: no hope

WELLAND: vulnerable incumbent

WEL-HH: no hope

WHITBY-OSH: who knows; hope for 2nd

WILLOWD: no hope

WIND-TEC: incumbent

WIND W: incumbent

YORK CEN: no hope

YORK-SIMC: most hope of any Simcoe-York Region seats--but that's on the grade

YORK S-W: target

YORK W: a targetable sleeper