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Looks like Adam Giambrone is gaining momentum!!! I hope Jack and Olivia endorse him early!
National Post
I wonder if Adam Vaughan will run?
Adam Vaughan is a first term councillor from Trinity Spadina. He doesn't stand a snowball's chance. Although he would beat Mammoliti, maybe.
Then again, I am an urban bigot. I don't trust suburban voters.
Adam Vaughan has repeatedly said he won't run...not that that's stopped people before. Vaughan has himself admitted he wouldn't fly in the suburbs.
With Smitherman's eHealth problems it looks increasingly likely that he won't run for Mayor and Glen Murray looking like an also ran I see a lot of movement towards Giambrone as the progressive alternative to Tory's right wing demagoguery.
I don't like John Tory and I won't vote for him - but I wouldn't call him a "demagogue". He's just a right of centre mainstream upper class twit. Tory is about as exciting as a mashed potato sandwich - hardly "demagogic"
I find his compassion on a budget to be the worst type of demagoguery. His rationale is that it is okay to let people suffer because we can't afford to help them and we can't afford to help them because we are already paying too much in taxes and we need to pay less.
He is the snake oil salesman that makes it palatable for people to justify placing their Mercedes lease payment over the needs of working Torontonians
You make John Tory sound just like Paul Martin or Michael Ignatieff. If you think that being against tax increases and being against higher welfare rates ipso-facto makes someone a "demagogue" then I guess that you just labelled about 90% of Canadian politicians including 100% of Tories and Liberals as well as some New Democrats as "demogogues". So if EVERYONE is a demagogue - then no one is a demogogue.
Im tired of havin a liberal mp esp now that we got rich white woman who has no business even coming to the hood in the 1st place.
NDP son nuff said.
Roy cullen was ok but I dont think he ever really did anything but sit on the bench n make his money.
Not all demagogues sound like Rush or Palin. Those are the easy ones to spot. My objection to Tory is that he comes off as "harmless" yet his message is lock step with any uber-corporatist. Privatisation, anti union and demolishing public housing under the guise of "redevelopment"
"Privatisation, anti union and demolishing public housing under the guise of "redevelopment""
You better put on your seat belt because I can assure you that if Smitherman runs for mayor - that will be his platform as well.
If you look in any dictionary, a "demagogue" is usually described as someone very charismatic and populist who is able to whip up crowds into a frenzy. They can be from anywhere on the political spectrum. I'll be John Tory only wishes he was a demagogue - if he had any of the those qualities he wouldn't have been such a total flop as a politician as he has been.
If the elction is between Tory and Smirtherman - then you will get identical policies from both - the only difference is that Smitherman would govern as a viciously partisan big "L" Liberal on a vendetta against anyone with any NDP or PC ties and he he would have a lot of temper tantrums and meltdowns in public and would have huge staff turnover because he's know to be so personally abusive to people who have the misfortune of working with him
Tory is exactly the same as Smitherman in terms of ideology, but he is less personally offensive and probably wants to be "liked" enough that he'll try to get along with everyone and will just be kind of ineffectual and end up compromising with everyone.
That's why I'm so happy that Giambrone is running
I would be happy he was running, except that I think his chances of winning are ZILCH and will be less than zilch after the TTC bringings in a massive fare increase and he as TTC chair has to take all the flak for it.
But George, I think, isn't going to run. As I said above.
With that in mind and Glen nowhere on the radar things look good for Giambrone. I also think Torontonians understand that fares are going up after being frozen for a year because Harper would rather spend money on self publicity than actually help Canadians.
I think the mayor should better reflect Toz Diversity.
I want a sista for mayor nuff said.
I think that's a very weak case. The TTC has had structural funding problems for many many years and this is something that is more the fault of the Ontario government than anything the feds do. When you think its fair or not, right now the municipal government in Toronto is very unpopular and right now people tend to think the TTC is getting more and more expensive for worse and worse service. I agree that its not Giambrone's fault - but if there is a big TTC fare increase, he will have great big bull's eye planted on his back if he runs for mayor. Also as a sitting city councillor who was seen as being in Miller's inner circle, he will be forced to defend every single unpopular thng that people will associate with Miller etc...while Tory would get off scot-free since he has nothing to defend.
The TTC is picking up the fed's share of the streetcar contract. Looks like Harper not doing his job to me. Stock it seams to me that you have a bit of a thing against Giambrone. Is that true?
No, I actually like Adam Giambrone a lot. In fact I like him so much that i don't want to see him humiliated and see his political career snuffed out at such a young age. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that at this point in time - he is unelectable. He may not be unelectable in 2014 or 2018 - but in 2010 - i just don't think that Torontonians are prepared to elect a second downtown New Democrat in a row - not when Miller is very unpopular and Giambrone will be stuck being cast as the status quo defender of Miller, and not when he still looks like he's 16 years old. Being chair of the TTC when it brings in hueg fare increases is another nail in his coffin. He can try to blame Harper or blame McGuinty - but most people don't have the sophistocation to connect all those dots - their reaction will be "my Metropass now costs 20% more, you run the TTC, I blame you!"
My fear is that he will lose the race for mayor AND lose his seat on council and siphon off millions of dollars that could otherwise go to many council races all for a doomed campaign.
I'm being pragmatic here. I think he is a great guy who would make a great mayor - but now is just not the time.
That being said, if he does run then i hope to God that I'm wrong and that he surprises me and wins and if he runs I will donate money, campaign for him and vote for him etc...But at this stage, if he asked me whether i thought he shoudl run, my answer would be NO.
I think any candidate on the centre-left will take a pass on the mayor's race. They can probably see the writing on the wall an realize that if John Tory runs a safe campaign, he will become the next mayor. The only person who I think may run against Tory will be former Winnipeg mayor, Glenn Murray. He has nothing to lose if he loses the race. The current left-wing councillors will stand a better chance securing their council seats than run for mayor.
George Smitherman will likely back out once he realizes that he won't be able to raise enough money to run an effective campaign against Tory.
Any left-wing mayoral candidate would have a better chance in becoming mayor in 2015 by running against Tory than running on supporting Miller's record.
Except for the fringe candidates, this will probably be a race with one or two serious candidates.
If Smitherman doesn't run, then maybe Shelley Carroll can run, she would be the perfect combination, a card-carryring Liberal who has a voting record that is 100% in lockstep with the NDP and who is from the suburbs. She could actually win because if Smitherman wasn't running, she would probably get the Liberal organization behind her because they'd have no where else to go - plus people in the NDP would all support because she is a de facto NDPer.
Why is Tory seen as a likely shoo-in in the Mayor's race? From afar, it seems like his political career to date has been a complete disaster. First, he lost the mayoral election to Miller in 2003. Then he basically imploded as PC leader in the 2007 election and handed McGuinty a win by default. He failed to win his own seat (in Toronto), and then he proceeded to lose an ultra-safe Tory seat in a by-election. Why is this guy the odds-on favourite to win the mayoralty of a city that has already rejected him twice (and resoundingly so in the last outing)?
That's a very concise and accurate description of Michael Walker. He's the closest thing to a 'non-partisan' politician that I've ever seen. Walker is very loyal to his constituents, and works very hard to defend their interests. He has opposed many bad development proposals in the riding, always siding with the local communities being affected.
Josh Matlow, on the other hand, is very much the typical capital L Liberal, with his hands deep in the pockets of private interests and developers. He is currently leading the charge to see schools closed in Toronto so that local playgrounds and community centres can be sold off.
Losing Michael Walker to the likes of Josh Matlow would be a disaster. But the Liberal machine is going to do their best to foist Matlow upon us.
I wouldn't say that John Tory is the "odds on favourite" to win. I think that polls right now show him way ahead because he's the best known candidate - its just a measure of name recognition.
So Giambrone will probably jump in the race early, try to lock up early endorsers and thwart any possible attempt for someone else on the centre-left who might have a chance to take on Smitherman (and possibly Tory). Is it all about Adam? Am I supposed to be impressed?
You might want to wait until Adam actually does something before you complain about what he does.
Good point jr. Time will tell. I hope I'm wrong and that there is a space for a credible left-centre candidate to make a good run of it.
I'm doing what everyone loves to do - speculate - on actions and on motives.
Do people here really think that John and George would both take votes from the same area of the citizen spectrum and that there is room for someone not announcing budget cuts for 2011? A water walker from the centre-left?
It's hard to say what such a person's constituency would be. Smitherman is going to tend to do better downtown and Tory in the suburbs. You'd need someone with strong appeal in both areas to compete and I can't think of any likely suspects from the left with that.
Anybody see the puff piece on George in the Globe over the wkend?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/a-tamer-gentler-george-smitherman/article1362942/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGlobeAndMail-National+(The+Globe+and+Mail+-+National+News)
Maybe "Furious George" is what we need. David Miller is too nice. When Denzel Minnen-Wong starts rabbiting on about some stupid shit, George can just heave an ashtray at him, q.e.d.
(I agree with Doug's post above; hopefully some more progressive people will come forward in the coming months.)
Much of the bloat that now occurs in the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care began while George Smitherman was Minister. Only about 1/3 of the $40B MOHLTC budget goes toward actual patient care.
Smitherman should face some tough questions, not run for mayor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Smitherman
http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/reports_en.htm