All the smart bets are against the Liberals at this point. They are the only party sagging in the polls and the last set of byelections showed their support is soft. As such, these are the NDP's best bets for pickups if an election were held today:

Gatineau

St. John's-Mount Pearl

South Shore - St Margaret's

Palliser

Parkdale-High Park

Surrey North

----

Other ridings where I would drop some change in on the chance that things could go well:

Nunavut

Oshawa

Edmonton East

Beaches East York

Newton North Delta (assuming a nominated candidate)

----

The NDP will be in a fight to the death in:

Vancouver Island North

Edmonton-Strathcona

Welland

Sudbury

Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar

Burnaby - Douglas (perennial close shaves for the NDP here, the riding association deserves the Victoria Cross )

---

The NDP will need to carefully watch its back in:

Sault Ste. Marie

Outremont

Western Artic

---

If Jack didn't make a carefully planned stop in each of these ridings over the course of a campaign held today, I would be shocked. In fact, I think these ridings are likely to see a lot more of Jack Layton and other Dippers in the next little while. Some of them have already received a fair number of visits.

And the NDP now has an economic issue to hang the Conservatives in Saskatchewan on too. The NDP MUST develop a policy on the federal deficit (btw, the provincial ones are looking much more serious) or they are going to get road pizza-ed!