We need to remember that the NDP took the seat partly because of a great candidate, partly because the Liberals melted down and partly because of a HUGE ground effort. The Liberals are going to pour resources into the riding in the next election. Their candidate is a signal of that. If the Liberals want to and get their crap together they can outdo the NDP on the ground-- assuming they make the riding a priority. The Liberals also have a good candidate this time. So on those three factors that won the seat for the NDP it is now almost a wash.

In Mulcair's favour there is a huge recognition in the riding that this is a priority seat for the NDP and the NDP candidate is a senior New Dem that could at some point be tapped for the leadership. The influence gained from keeping this one NDP seat is greater than adding one more Liberal who-- at least for now is no more likely to sit on the government side of the house than Mulcair.

There are only two conditions that would make this seat safe for the NDP: the NDP come in to government or at least replace the Liberals as the main opposition party or Mulcair become the party leader. Neither is about to happen before the next election.