There is one other thing that could make the seat relatively safe for Mulcair. Cauchon sees the writing on the wall and decides that maybe running again isn't such a great idea afterall and the Liberals are left with a door stopper replacement candidate.

Its actually not that far-fetched. Cauchon wanted to run when it seemed almost certain that there would be an election this Fall. Now its clear we won't vote until Spring and maybe not until Fall 2010 or maybe even not until 2011. He may not want to put his life on hold for that long.