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E. May and Monbiot to debate Lomborg on the eve of Copenhagen summit
Comments
December 4, 2009 - 2:59pm
#113
It's pretty sad to see that some people think the best way to make the NDP look better is to tear down the Green Party at every opportunity. It's even sadder that people would place their party's fortunes higher on the priority list than honest discussion on an important issue like climate change
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there was an 8% change in public opinion belief from the beginning to the end of the debate, that is a pretty damn quick % drop, eh...
There was no win by May and Monbiot...that is for sure....
this compounds their having the debate
Edited (Whoops...wrong forum!)
I don't a thing about Lawson, but in the case of Lomborg I am sure that May and Monibot were aware that in addition to Lomborg's two better known books "The Skeptical Environmentalist" and "Cool It" there are these three (far less known, but in my opinion better and more thought provoking) books bearing Lomborg's name which deal with that very question:
Global Crises, Global Solutions (2004, new edition 2009)
How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place (2006)
Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems: Costs and Benefits (2007)
I haven't read any of these books but from the summaries I've seen on the net, they appear to be more of the same crap he was arguing tonight. That we should spend our money on x instead of y (y being climate change) to get the biggest effect.
What I'm trying to ascertain is does he really care about fixing the problems or is this just a misdirection?
Unlike you, I'm no expert on the holocaust but I understand it's an historical fact based on some pretty solid physical evidence. So, if you want to debate against it, go for it but you might look pretty silly.
The work on AGW, however, is still very much a work in progress. AFAIK, nobody has yet come up with a model that accurately maps to reality as we see it. That's why there is a big range between the "best case" and "worst case" scenarios.
And this debate wasn't even on anthropogenic global warming; it was on the question of whether AGW should be our highest priority, which is a bit of an abstraction. So, you can equate it to a debate on the holocaust if you want; I don't see it that way.
You claim this debate was only a "political debate for entertainment" and then further claim "the issue has been set back for years"
How are both of those possible? As "support", you offer the audience poll. Which of your claims does the poll support and how?
RM, you ignore the degree to which the "audiences" everywhere want (need) to believe that all will be well. The LomMunk folks are of the vaiety that will use this psychological fact, play it to the limit, to gain their ends. Anyone not a water walker would have gotten damned cold and wet this summer in attempting to walk large areas of what a year ago was thick old ice in the polar regions. If you can find respect for a position in which corporate defenders argue in favour of a crap shoot, there's not point in arguing against your position. Faith is...well, faith. But a great many in the "audiences" have taken hope from Lomborg, because he is, well, an authority.
Speaking of holocaust, I'm sure you've read accounts of the "Eichmann experiment", aimed at determining the degree of faith attached to the wearing of white lab coats in a laboratory, the prevalence of the authoritarian personality? ANd the number of people ready to turn up the voltage?
george it is mind boggling to me, that some are so short sighted that they do not see the implications of May's and Monbiot's actions in validating Lomborg and Lawson's positions, and how their loss makes it even worse...
as you are exactly correct about the psychological fact in play here...people will "move along, nothing to see here" and Copenhagen will be a bust....because of this, the UEA debacle and the global economic recession.
Copenhagen was a bust long before the Munk debate, and regardless of my esteem for May and Monbiot, I cannot hold them personally responsible for its failure. I think it unlikely that people will move along and continue to ignore global warming for much longer; it isn't going away, quite the opposite, and the deniers must inevitably wither and die, like old nazis, anti-women's suffrage and pro-slavery types in the face of reality.
More interesting for me are the lengths to which Canadians are willing to go to deny this reality and the debate provides a peerless illustration of the power of this collective fantasy. With each passing year reality grows ever more clamorous and it seems the general public responds by rejecting it ever more strenuously. Witness the increasingly psychotic narratives being floated to provide alternatives to that reality, with arguments about communist world governments and global conspiracies of climate scientists - these evidence the increasing desperation of a population riven by internal contradiction. On the one hand, an established, habituated, high consumption culture that assures some material comfort - for the time being at least - on the other, a looming reality which threatens to replace this known quantity with possible hardship, at the very least a change from established ways, possibly involving lower consumption levels. I think it is entirely human that this latter engenders deep, psychologically rooted resistance, particularly in a culture that in global terms has little conception of real hardship. When was the last time famine or crop failure stalked this mighty land of ours? The entire western industrial concept is rotting from the material base up and the public perception of this is expressed in the embrace of increasingly authoritarian regimes, an orgy of last-minute easy consumption - the credit crisis - brazen, last kick at the can profit-taking from the economic elite and a growing generalized FEAR.
At this point I am personally at a loss as to how to proceed and incline to the view that only further, harder shocks to the system will eventually push the masses past the denial stage into constructive engagement with these terrifying issues. For me the debate illustrates that providing people with the necessary information is insufficient. Looking for a metaphor I consider the case of the boatload of Jewish refugees denied safe harbour in Canada at the outset of the second world war. There MUST have been sufficient information available, even then, for Canadians to intuit the nature of the Nazi regime, Krystalnacht etc yet STILL we responded in a sociopathic fashion.
But I cannot see how continuing to stress the importance of reality as the final arbiter of our course can ever be a false option. Perhaps we just have to write off the majority and direct our efforts to the next generation in the hope that they are less contaminated by the death trip the rest of our culture is on.
But as I say, I really don't know. As far as I'm concerned the debate that I watched hit all the right buttons, and the response just deepens my low opinion of our so-called educated public. Perhaps M and M committed the unforgivable sin of sailing a little too close to the truth, and were punished accordingly. An almost worthless culture, I am tempted to conclude; petulant, increasingly selfish and stupefied by material abundance. I was just in Toronto for a visit and had forgotten how harshly it impacts the senses, the anarchic urban planning, near total subservience to the automobile, the brutal ugliness of most public space; and all floated on honeyed corporate feel-good messages, plastered all over the physical and media environment. My educated middle class friends bought local organic produce, collecting it in freshly acquired SUVs, made donations to Oxfam while their tax dollars build a rash of superjails and the new security state. Confusion abounds.
It seems clear that because of our current privileged position we are doomed to bring up the rear, dragged kicking and screaming back into the real world long after the rest of the planet has caught the wind. Look at the holdouts in Copenhagen, an Anglo-American axis of reaction: Australia, Canada, the United States and England. For me, this must be determined by the material circumstances of these cultures, and the ingrained sense of entitlement that attends them.
I see little cause for optomism. Actually, none. But I applaud Monbiot and May for fighting the good fight, to the best of their abilities and think it bad form to stand their efforts on their head and accuse them of feeding the forces of reaction they so strenuously resist.
I belong to no party but think a red green coalition might be the way forward.
That might be a good thing: Copenhagen climate change talks must fail, says top scientist
hsf - check your link.
George, this comes down to principles. I think that the better educated people are, the better the quality of democracy. You can't improve the world by suppressing dissenting opinion. I think that public airing of dissenting views is the best way to the truth.
It's interesting that FM brought up the case of the holocaust deniers. Here's a case where some countries have criminalized the practise of arguing with the accepted version of history. I like what Noam Chomsky said about that: It would be a poor tribute to the victims of the holocaust to adopt the practises of their persecutors (loosely quoted).
I am familiar with the Eichmann experiment but I'd say you and I learned different lessons from it. I think the solution is to educate the people and get them to think for themselves. You seem to think the solution is to have people you agree with wearing the white coats.
Finally, I'd like to address the issue of faith. We all like to think we work from knowledge and logic but the fact is if people tried to work only from first-hand knowledge, they would never cross the street. So, faith is a necessary part of life. I have faith that if people are treated as citizens and are given information, most of them will do the right thing. That is the foundation of democracy.
What's the basis of your faith?
remind, you've already admitted to having a bias against the Green Party. It's pretty obvious that if someone from the NDP had said exactly the same things as May, you'd be spinning this in the opposite direction.
Give it up.
Good post, Merowe.
"I am familiar with the Eichmann experiment but I'd say you and I learned different lessons from it. I think the solution is to educate the people and get them to think for themselves. You seem to think the solution is to have people you agree with wearing the white coats."
That is a cockeyed interpretation of an experiment aimed at demonstratinvg the presence of the authoritarian personality. I am no authoritarian. The only bloody reason I brought it up was to suggest that a huge number of people would flock to Lomborg, the "scientist and authority".
You treat that "debate" as some sort of schoolboy exercise, taken from your experience in youth that hearing all sides is the democratic way. That is the height of naivete. I introduced the psychological factor because you fail to see that at work out there.
As for your belief that the better educated the populace, the more likely a reasonable outcome, and your "faith" that if they are given the correct interpretation, they will come through for you...I have found myself in deep dung for talking about the Great Unread, even while they read the tracts denying climate change and in preparation for a rapturous meeting with their maker.
What's the "basis of my faith"? Trying, since 1970, to get through the insularity, political activism. "Faith" is a deadly concept, mate.
Here's where we have positioned ourselves. As Merowe says:
"But I cannot see how continuing to stress the importance of reality as the final arbiter of our course can ever be a false option. Perhaps we just have to write off the majority and direct our efforts to the next generation in the hope that they are less contaminated by the death trip the rest of our culture is on."
That is the sad, sad position we are in now, having used up the inheritance of the following generations. Homo sapiens is really something else.
George, I never accused you of being an authoritarian. I was merely attempting to point out what I see as a flaw in your logic. On the one hand, you bring up an experiment that illustrates the dangers of uncritically deferring to authority. And you speak of Lomborg as being the authority in this case (although he is a statistician, not a climate scientist). On the other hand, you appear to want people to uncritically defer to the scientific authorities who endorse AGW. You can't have it both ways.
How are people to know which scientific authorities are not to be questioned? Are you going to tell them?
When I'm unsure of a position, I try to get different perspectives before I come to a personal conclusion. Which is why I find these debates interesting and helpful. What are you suggesting? That I make up my mind first and only listen to those viewpoints that reinforce my first intuition?
One last shot at it...think sociologically about the application of the psychological concept "authoritarian". It is the PEOPLE OUT THERE watching the debate, not blessed Lomborg or myself, or you, in question. Did many who watched the blessed "debate" get sucked in by the "scientific" chatter of the "authority" because of their tendency to accept ( make judgements on) authoritarian principles?
That's gotta be it in my attempts to bring you to focus on the AUDIENCE, not the participants, RF. That's why the sponsors of the debate (the cagey bastards) set it up in that fashion. That is the effect Lomborg has. This is an attempt at partially explaining why people get sucked in by such people.
Believing in the word of the vast majority of scientists on this question is not to completely defer to "authority", but it does indicate my "faith" in their position, their science. I have no "faith" in the Great Unread coming down on the side of rationality in this, the 11th hour.
Who didn't see this coming? Elizabeth May and Monbiot blew it. From the spinners in this thread you would think they won the debate. They LOST!!! First this is publicised as something good, then when lost, its blown off. I read the May link and it sounds bitter. People write things like that when the LOSE not when they win. I believe there were a significant number who suggested this was a bad road to go down and it was. The Environmentalists are taking a beating and this debate didn't help matters.
If you leave a room with less support then you walked in with, you are losing ground not gaining ground. Talk about going backwards. There is no excuse for this, there just isn't.
I have notice a slip in public support ever since Global Warming was relabelled into climate change. Climate Change opens the door to way too much speculation. People are getting confused. I would have thought that a pair of superior debators and gifted speakers would have won the damn debate even if it was the wrong thing to do in the first place.
Not only did they give legitimacy to their opponents they lost the debate too and there is no hiding that fact.
Unfortuneately there is no reward for those who said this was a bad idea. Canadas opinion of global warming is getting colder.
autoworker, when people start to make fun of my handle, I can tell they've run out of intelligent things to say. In your case, it seems to have happened sooner than most.
And what is it exactly that "makes people out there" intrinsically different from you or I? They're people, too. They're citizens. They have votes. Who are you to tell them who they should or shouldn't listen to? There are times when the "vast majority" is wrong.
And why do you insist that Lomborg is an "authority"? Authority of what? Statistics?
I don't believe in plutocracy. Or technocracy. I believe in democracy. And that means believing in people.
Apparently a few Green Party people...
No it doesn't, nor does the ignoring of the rammifications on the part of some.
Could not agree more....as well as with this below...
Not only is there no rewared, Elizabeth May has made things much much worse....as per usual, and now the ground lost has to be regained