I do not take it as a given that Harper will be out if he does not win a majority because coalitions and arrangements are hard to predict.

That said I do not think that it is certain that the Cons will even win a minority plurality of seats in the next election. Possible but not more likely than the Liberals.

I suspect the Liberals are ging to gain in Quebec substantially (they have recorded several near misses and I beleive a lot of BQ voters are getting fed up with Harper and may even hold their noses and give the Liberals a chance to a have a party with more seats in the House than Harper. I also think the Liberals may gain in Ontario many of the seats they lost previously to the Cons and that they along with the NDP will also gain in both NB and BC directly off the Cons column. I don't think the NDP will lose much if anything and may in fact make some gains including sliding up the middle to retake a seat in Sask.