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Toronto 2010 Council races
February 9, 2010 - 6:29pm
Post 0
I understand that some non-Torontonians have expressed objection to individual ward races getting a thread. But I think a fair compromise is to split the "Big One" from the various Council races.
Since Txt Message-gate seems to now be dominating our discussion of municipal politics, I wonder if Giambrone can even get re-elected in his own ward.
Who knows? Its a long time from now until next Fall and the public often likes the idea of people making mistakes and being contrite and redeeming themselves. I don't get the sense that anyone particularly formidable is running in Giambrone's ward - so while its never a slam dunk - at least by not running for mayor he'll have more time to be a city councillor.
It's not yet clear if he's even going to be running for council. However, Ana Bailão, Mario Silva's aide when he was a councillor, is running again. She was the runnerup to Giambrone in 2003 garnering 40% of the vote to Giambrone's 51%. One can assume that Silva, who is now the MP for the riding, will put his resources behind her as will MPP Tony Ruprecht.
Hema Vyas is a progressive candidate and one of Dave Meslin's "5 candidates to watch" but it's unclear if she'd remain in the race if Giambrone is in.
There is a lot of animosity in the ward to Giambrone from businesses mad about the removal of parking spots ond Dundas West and the narrowing of Lansdowne but it's not clear if that's just noise from small business owners (reminiscent of the anti-Mihevc sentiment in 2006) that won't actually translate into votes by residents. Still, if nothing else, they will pour funds into Bailao's campaign if Giambrone decides to run again.
The irony of all this is if Giambrone had waited a few more years and grown up he probably would have become mayor or at least an MPP or MP with a shot at becoming NDP leader as well. Now, it's almost certain he'll never be either mayor or party leader and there's a strong possibility he won't even be a councillor after October. Hubris strikes again.
Giambrone's best hope is if, smelling blood and opportunity, several two or more centre-right candidates enter the race and split the vote allowing Giambrone to come up the middle. A one on one race against Bailão would be a dogfight and if Vyas stays in the race that will bleed a proportion of whatever support Giambrone has left.
As I recall, Ana Bailao actually went from being Giambrone's opponent in 2003 to actually endorsing him for re-election in 2006! She may or may not want to run if she feel like she has to go head to head against an incumbent after assuming it was going to be a wide open race. The southern half of Davenport is the far more NDP-friendly half.
Let's not forget that there is probably about a 50% chance that we will end up in a federal election campaign in the Fall meaning that we would have overlapping federal and municipal election campaigns going on. I wonder what impact that would have.
Though interestingly, the Dundas West complainants seem to be more "diverse" than the usual angry-ratepayer types, i.e. they might rather go for an "independent progressive" a la Adam Vaughan than Ana Bailao...
Here's a question. Do people think Hema Vyas has an obligation to step aside for Giambrone if he wants to run again "for the good of the city" and all that? I don't think so, though I'm not particularly sympathetic for him. He was willing to give up his Council seat to run for mayor, so that's his problem. It's Ward 18 - not Adam Giambrone's feifdom.
I read that article in the Globe and I don't see the connection between the headline and the content. The only thing I read in the article is that "he has not made a decision about whether to run in Ward 18". Well no kidding, it's a big decision and its probably the least of his concerns in the last couple of days. I would be shocked if he had made a decision either way.
...and who said anything about "forcing" anyone else out of the race. He is the city councillor for Ward 18 - if he wants to run for re-election, that's his right. The election is seven months way and its not as if anyone else has started to actively campaign or spend any money etc...If he decides to run and so do others - then let the voters decide.
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Stockholm, Giambrone had sex, with people that he wasn't pretending to be married to. There is no greater crime that a politician can commit. Adam should feel lucky that a mob of angry Torontonians hasn't burned down his condo and thrown him in the lake. He's probably a witch.
Chris Tindal is running in Ward 27- wherever that is. Hes the Green who ran against Bob Rae in the by-election. Seems to have at least a fairly high profile... and while the Green 'machine' may be small, I would guess they'll be highly concentrated in his campaign, plus the usual assortment of people from other parties progressives get in municipal politics.
According to today's G & M, Giambrone isn't even planning to run for re-election in Ward 18. That leaves Ana Bailao the shoo-in, despite Mez's endorsement of Hema Vyas as the progressive candidate to watch. Bailao came relatively close behind Giambrone the first time he ran, if you can call 1,300 votes close. She's the former assistant to Mario Silva when he was city councillor in the ward so I assume she'll have his support, not to mention that of the Liberal machine, and her ties to the ward run deep. And, most importantly, she's Portugese, the dominant ethnic group in the ward. The only serious candidate who would have a chance to beat her would be Rui Pires, also Portugese, who ran federally in the riding a few years ago. I think he works for the AIDS Committee of Toronto. He would likely get the NDP/union machine behind him, probably even Giambrone's old, limited machine. There's no way they'll devote any serious resources to Hema Vyas, who stands no chance whatsoever of beating Bailao. Oh well, I assume she's fairly progressive and won't ally with the right-wingers on Council. It was only a matter of time before the Portugese elected one of their own in Davenport, which has been dominated by Italian pols for decades.
As has been said already, no matter what is attributed to Gambrione right now or even what he is definitely saying- its way too ealry to predict what he will do.
As to Tindal running in Ward 27 where Kyle Ray has retired, a Green blogger says Susan Gapka "looks to be the NDP candidate" and Smitherman is heavily behind his aide Ken Chan.
Huh?? Before Giambrone, the city councillor for Davenport was Mario Silva and before Mario Silva it was Martin Silva - Silva is about as quintessential a Portuguese name as you will ever get.
BTW: I think its a bit of an exagerration to describe Adam Giambrone as "Italian" at all. As far as I know his mother is WASP and his father is American with some Italian blood away back on the paternal side that resulted in an Italian last name.
I keep re-reading the Globe article and i still don't see where it saus that he isn't running again? Is the Globe trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy?
...and we have recently seen that formidable Toronto-Centre "Green machine" in action just last week! They got THREE PERCENT of the vote in the provincial byelection there. I'm sure everyone is just sitting on hot coals in terror waiting to see what the "great formidable green machine" will do next!!
Give it a break Stock. Tindal has his own personal credibility. I put Green "machine" is quote marks for the obvious reasons. That it isn't a machine does not make it insignificant if people choose to concentrate their efforts. The Greens will play small party politics on the ground the way the NDP had to once upon a time, and still has to in many places- including many cities.
There are a lot of Greens spread across the Toronto core, if a significant number of them concentrate in one ward race, while the NDP and Libs mostly work their own wards... that has a substantial impact.
Have anything of substance to contribute, like something about the NDP in Ward 27?
Maybe if all those people you mention who have "the machine" behind them would put it behind Hema Vyas, she could beat Bailao, Souviens.
Just sayin'. There's no rule that says that it has to be a guy representing the ward forever, is there? Or that only men are electable? That's just so last century, don't you think?
Those darn e-mails and text messages again! :D
Good point Ken. I tried getting something going about Ward 27 in the previous thread - but then it got buried by this Giambrone scandal.
Candidates currently running for Toronto City Councillor in ward 18 (Davenport) are:
If you want to keep up with who is actually registered to run anywhere, this is the official site: http://app.toronto.ca/vote2010/jsp/candidatesOfficeIndex.jsp
I believe some local groups are planning a first all candidates' meeting for sometime in March. Jack Fava is one person tryng to organize this, but I am sure there are and will be others. I hope everyone will keep an open mind on who is running and will bring issue to the table rather than personalities. I look forward to a stimulating and enlightening campaign.
Being a candidate myself, I hope it is acceptable for me to refer you to my initial website:
http://davenportdemocracy.blogspot.com/
No-one's yet challenging John Filion in Ward 23. Darn. Although reading his resume, you can see why. He's going to have be blasted out with the electoral equivalent of dynamite.
Martin Silva represented a neighbouring ward. Lest we forget, Mario Silva got into Council by defeating none other than Tony O'Donohue...
Re: Ward 27, I posed this question in the following thread:
"How about the non-NDP candidates in Ward 27? They include, among others, Ken Chan, Chris Tindal and Simon Wookey. Ken Chan is a big-L Liberal who was Smitherman's aide and also a former police officer. It's hard to say how strong he will be on the campaign trail, though but he probably will have Smitherman machine resources at his disposal and can appeal both north and south of Bloor. Simon Wookey, also a Liberal (who ran against Giambrone last time) seems more of a north of Bloor candidate. Chris Tindal did very well in the federal byelection for the Greens and almost certainly took a lot of the NDP vote."
The registered NDPers so far include Joel Dick and Susan Gapka; Kristyn Wong-Tam hasn't yet officially announced but she sounds the most formidable.
Wrong again. Silva was first elected in ward 18 in 1997 and then he was re-elected in ward 18 in 2000 defeating Adam Giambrone. Then Giambrone won the vacant seat in 2003 after Silva quit to run federally. If you don't believe - look here:
http://www.toronto.ca/vote2000/live_final/018.htm
Martin Silva was elected in Ward 4 (roughly today's ward 19) in 1988 and later filled in for Olivia Chow's vacancy in ward 20 Mario Silva was a councillor for Davenport and has been MP since 2004.
I love it when two election geeks lock horns - but my money's on the Lord.