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Toronto after the election, continued
October 26, 2010 - 2:31pm
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
- George Orwell
Congratulations, Rob Ford! (continued from here.)
I think with Ford the image is more of an armpit rubbing in your face-forever
Thanks Mick.
Does anyone know how long it takes for mayoral results by ward to be released? I'm assuming Ford won big in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough and got crushed in the Old City of Toronto.
In that case, Ford and the Council may have serious difficulties with each other.
"Parliamentary mayors" chosen by Council are normal in the UK, where only London directly elects its mayor (plus a small handful of small cities). No cities in France directly elect mayors. Germany's two largest cities, Berlin and Hamburg, also have their Councils choose their mayors.
This would solve one main problem. Fair Vote Toronto says it's time for a municipal democratic reform program.
Here's how I see the composition of council:
Ward 1 - Vincent Cristani, the only "Rob Ford Party" candidate (Gus Cusimano in Ward 9 just fell short of taking out Maria Augimeri) to succeed, over Suzan Hall - rightward shift
Ward 13 - Sarah Doucette over Bill Saundercook - leftward shift
Ward 15 - Josh Colle beats Rob Davis - while endorsed by Moscoe, he won't be as left, so rightward shift
Ward 18 - Ana Bailao over Kevin Beaulieu - rightward shift, though it's unlikely she'll be in Ford territory
Ward 25 - Jaye Robinson seems Kathleen Wynne-ish politically - a leftward shift from the Tory Cliff Jenkins
Ward 27 - Kristyn Wong-Tam over Ken Chan - leftward shift, KWT is to the left of Kyle Rae (and while Rae was increasingly compromised and opportunistic towards the Libs, I think Ken Chan would have been to the right of Rae).
Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis over Jane Pitfield and Jennifer Wood (thanks for running!) - significant leftward shift from Case Ootes
Ward 32 - Mary Margaret McMahon crushes Sandra Bussin - rightward shift, but like Ana Bailao it's unlikely she'll be in Ford territory
Ward 35 - Michelle Berardinetti over Adrian Heaps - rightward shift
Ward 36 - Gary Crawford ovr Bob Spencer - rightward shift from Brian Ashton (but Spencer would have been to the left of Ashton).
Josh Matlow in Ward 22 is a bit of a mystery. Most people I've talked to think he'd be to the left of Michael Walker, but it's hard to say.
Ford will be able to get some measures through with the cooperation of the center votes on council. Many of these will almost certainly trade their support for committee appointments and such. Anything highly controversial will have trouble.
Royson James at the Star, articulates a precise analysis of why Rob Ford's reign will be less bad than people think, here: What happens now? Four turbulent years.
James comes up short of coming to the inevitable conclusion that a Ford Toronto would not be that much different from a Smitherman Toronto, when the chips are down.
The truth is that Ford will not be able to do too much on his agenda without the co-operation from the province. Strategically, Ford has two options; one, play his cards close to the chest and be conciliatory until after the Provincial elections, in the hope of helping Hudak win the province; two, bellyache about how his reform program being hamstrung by the province, against the will of the people of Toronto as exhibited by his mandate won through a crushing defeat of George Smitherman, in the hope of motivating his base to "throw bums out" in the provincial election.
Once Hudak is in, then the real slash and burn will begin.
That said the campaign indicated clearly that anyone looking for salvation from the Liberals is sadly mistaken. The left must make its case in the court of public opinion and build for the future.
This is dead on, I think:
Rob Ford summed his attitude up with the slogan “Respect for Taxpayers,” a phrase that spoke directly to many voters’ concerns. But substitute the word “citizens” for “taxpayers” and you have a message any city-building progressive would also do well to embrace.
Those in drive-through country at the northern edges of Scarborough and Etobicoke are Torontonians just as much as those who live at Queen and Beaconsfield. As we see, their votes count every bit as much, but they’re also wrestling with real concerns about diversity and sprawl and transportation and poverty. Too often, the approach of urbane downtowners has been to consider the inner suburbs to be forgettable or second-rate, and to see primarily suburban concerns as unworthy of serious debate.
I'd add to this that the two other main candidates had quite bad campaigns that either weren't about anything in particular (Smitherman) or were totally deaf to public opinion and insisted that nothing was wrong (Pantalone). There's a lot to be reconsidered about campaign messaging and organization too.
You could actually take that same message and transfer it to provincial and federal politics and subsitute in different parts of the province for Scarborough and Etobicoke.
Seems to me the success of Ford had much to do with tapping into the same economic concerns that progressives want to, but Ford did a much better job and provided easier to understand answers to those concerns. Not suggesting for a moment he is right, but the campaign was much clearer and frankly cleaner in terms of message.
I was amazed at the number of people I know in Toronto who would never vote Conservative, but were voting for Ford. Some of that had to do with how much people disliked Smitherman though.
Right.
It's unfortunate how anti-Smitherman sentiment added up to more support for Ford. (I've talked to a few of these folks - they just couldn't abide Smitherman, and thought Ford would do less damage.)
That too is a result of the way the mainstreem media play the game of setting the election up as a two way race where Pantalone was a long shot.
They made it become a two sides of the same coin "pot calling the kettle black" fearmongering coin toss.
I knew Ford was going to win its because the voters are unhappy with slick talking politicians and feel Ford is a regular guy who they can trust. He knew the buttons to push, and didn't care if it was unpopular with some Ford speaks his mind. I agree with you Ford is going to pit society against the poor and cause much harm. The city is overcrowded and has many new residents and cuts will cut like a knife and will do no good but the rich will continue to get richer and the former middle class are willing to play it all out to the bitter end. As they bridge the gap between the rich and poor as most are working for the man for a lifetime and a half and gaining time.
The eye story is horseshit. I'm not about to join some pseudo-progressive hipster in putting on a hairshirt and engaging in mass public flagellation. It is not a matter of me not understanding Ford or the suburbs. It is the story of a media created narrative that has been running in the Toronto Sun for the past seven years and was more recently picked up by the Toronto star. The narrative was that spending was out of control and Toronto was on the virge of financial collapse. Miller wearing a $5000 bunny suit was playing violin at Kyle Rae's $12,000 retirement party catered by burger bribes from the Boardwalk cafe. This orgy of overspending needed to be stopped. These same examples were repeated in every conservative news organ, channel and station ad invintum.The Star only joined in the party later(except for Royson James who made a career of attacking Miller) more recently, hoping to set the stage for Smitherman riding triumphant to the rescue. This backfired for a number of reasons, perhaps the biggest giving greater legitimacy to Ford's gravy train theme.
Did the media ever compare these scandals with the real corruption and waste of Lastman? Subway to nowhere(to increase developers land values) the MFP leasing scandal. No of course not this involved significant money and genuine corruption.
Ford did not win the election by "respecting the voters" in general. He also does not have a massive mandate for anything, he didn't even win a majority of those who voted. Ford won the election because he stayed on target , had a theme created and endorsed by almost all the media, and he played to his base. People were shocked when he failed to show up at events highlighting women's issues, the arts, environment lgtb communities, etc. but his campaign knew this was not his base it was a waste of time. Instead he played to his base and managed to mobilize them to come out and vote. Ford one this election because he knew that speaking to, attracting and mobilizing just 25% of the electorate was enough to win. He didn't have to appeal to everyone and he didn't try. I think that was his success. I also doubt that the majority of Ford's base is working class(another error of the eye writer) they are probably for the most part older middle class and predominantly white. It is more classist of people assuming that just because his voters are inarticulate and easily swayed they are working class. A large number of middle, as well as upper middle or upper are inarticulate, raging and easily swayed by simplistic messages. Welcome to the heart of a collapsing empire.
dp
Except for the fact that his ward regularly gets 70-80% of the vote (as did his brother) and that means if every one that was white voted for him, half of the POC did too. And not for a minute do I think every 'white' person voted for him since I live in that Ward
And Im thinking 47% is pretty good as a mandate. How much did Miller get in his 2 elections when we celebrated him having a 'mandate'?
Optics matter people. It looks like a 'mandate', he will operate it as if it is so, and hoi polloi will believe it. Rob Ford got 379,755 votes and in 2006 David Miller got 332,969 votes.
And in 2003 David Miller got 43% of the vote and I remember celebrating his 'mandate'podcast: Robert Ford Interview on CBC radio's As It Happen. Must be heard to be believed.
Im sure after hearing it, it still cant be believed.
I dont think I have the stomach for it.
Yes, I find this phony guilt tripping about "not understanding the suburbs" from the hipster intelligentsia to be annoying as well, N.R.
While turnout was high for a municipal election, I'm sure the electorate is still weighted heavily towards homeowners. My guess is Ford enjoyed a lot of support from working class and middle class homeowners in the suburbs (largely "white ethnic" like the Italians and Poles, but also from many Asian groups as well).
I don't think Ford had all this support from people living in public housing, etc.
For instance, take Lawrence Heights, which is a big political issue in that area. I'm sure Ford got a lot more support from the Orthodox Jewish homeowners in the area than he did from the largely Black Canadian population living in Lawrence Heights.
On the whole, I'd say he did very well among the homeowning suburban working class, but also from the (mainly immigrant) small business class and from the affluent suburbanites as well.
This is my guess. We'll have to wait and see for results by ward.
I thought that was a great interview. He really tossed off the CBC there. He has a pretty good sense of humour I think.
Thanks for writing that NR Kissed. And Bacchus, there's plenty enough white folk in Ward 2 to provide all of those votes.
Sorry but no RP, check the stats. His ward is one of the poorest. And the most culturally diverse
In fact check out Maysie's blog for those stats
Not just that. On the issues he has a great mandate. All those downtown lNDP "progressives" who voted for Smitherman because he was "not as bad a Ford" signed them on to privitization of the TTC and sub-contracting out garbage collection as well.
On these issues 88% of the electorate is squarely behind him. Wonderful! Good "strategy".
My real view is that many people hid their support for these elements of Smitherman's union busting agenda behind the facade of strategic voting. At the end of the day, defense of collective bargaining rights were not enough of a principle for much of the "progressive" left.
Totally agreed with Cue
Lol. I hope he keeps those interviews up. Won't be long...
Well, there's almost 10,000 households over $50,000 and Doug got 12,000 votes. Check out these numbers here, you may have used a bit of hyperbole in claiming that if even all the white people voted for him. All I'm sayin.
http://www.toronto.ca/wards2000/pdf/2006/ward2_ethnocultural_page.pdf
If you strolled through the neighbourhood, the ONLY signs were for ford. And every 'immigrant' house in my naighbourhood had them (actually outnumbering the 'whites in my neighbourhood, they dont really do signs there).
They love him because he returns their calls and gets stuff done for them, regardless of what he may think or even say in public about them
If you think its only white smug suburban yuppies voting for him and his brother, your ignoring the stats and the reality. His brother got 71% of the vote which is lower than he usually got