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Winnipeg - Mayor Katz turns down Aboriginal/North End Forum Invite
October 15, 2010 - 12:54am
Not sure if this should be in the aboriginal forum or here, though it is a slight to all people in Winnipeg's north end.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=441957882694&id=868425553
I haven't seen this posted on the North End Votes facebook page yet, or in the MSM but I presume it will be.
I think this is a suitable place, given that it is election season in Winnipeg.
Anyways, it's not surprising that the soon-to-be former Winnipeg mayor Sam Katz would turn is back on the North End. The truth is, the North End has been where Winnipeg's "undesirables" have ended up since the beginning, since that part of the city is separated by the rail yards. This along with de-industrialization is responsible for causing many of the problems that area faces.
One of the problems I have with many of the "downtown renewal" plans that are on the books for Winnipeg is a feeling that the city is trying to essentially shove the "riff-raff" into the North End and then forget about it. Every city likes to boast about its downtown, but Winnipeg's downtown is quite challenged. Just make it nice and glitzy without panhandlers and the powers-that-be will be very satisfied. Of course, now that the City looks ready to elect someone from the North End, perhaps that area might get the proper attention it deserves.
Just found this:
http://www.samandjudy.com/home/2010/9/1/sam-judy-election-comix-15.html
Actually he is looking out for poor individuals in the North End. He's warning that low-income property owners could lose their homes if Judy raises property taxes
Teagan Goddard's Political Wire calls this best negative ad ever:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/14/best_negative_ad_ever.html
hahahaha! so hilarious, and of course, true!
poor kid, but i must admit, for so many reasons this was one of the funniest clips related to politics i've seen in a while. It's pretty much what every other attack ad WANTS to be saying but doesn't
The third version is pretty cool with its tag ending. I am wondering who the people are that really put this together? On tv last night Katz hinted that it was someone connected to JWL even though he faked-laugh about the ad itself. I wish environmental groups could put a video this well produced on oil. I went to the David Suzuki site to find something and all they had were tesitimonial videos about people's emotional connections to environmental issues. So many of those with the physcial/financial resources to put something together either have no will or intellect to put something out with impact.
Question for Winnipeggers. Do you think that the fact that this whimsical negative ad against Katz has gone VIRAL ( to say the least) will have any impact on the results of the election next week? it certainly can't exactly be good news for Katz if the image of him kicking a kid in the face gets replayed over and over and over and over again....along with a few other critical comments about him in the ad.
The last poll i saw a couple of weeks ago had Judy W-L leading by 3%. Any new word on who is winning?
Well it seems close... Grand Chief Ron Evans isn't doing the North End any favours by publicly endorsing Katz.
Of course the Chamber of Commerce released an official score card on business friendliness and Katz got 90% while Wasylycia-Leis scored 73%.
ETA: score correction
That's odd. I thought there was grumbling within the business community about Katz taking a "go-it-alone" approach.
I see that the latest poll by Leger in Winnipeg has Katz leading 38% to 32% but with Judy W-L's support apparently more committed and 18% undecided - so I guess all we can do is hang on for the roller coaster ride.
That poll is a poll of those who voted in the last election. By all accounts, turnout at the advance polls is well ahead. Now true, it could be that the turnout will be the same overall next Wednesday, but if the trend holds, turn-out will be higher than last go around. High voter trunouts generally do not favour incumbent politicians.
Time for change at City Hall:
And now, it's time to look into the crystal ball. My picks for the winners in the following races:
Mayor: Judy Wasylycia-Leis
Charleswood-Tuxedo: Paula Havexbick (has the PC machine and the police behind her)
St Charles: Grant Nordman
Daniel McIntyre: Keith Bellamy in a squeaker
St. James-Brookklands: Scott Fielding
Point Douglas: Mike Pagtakhan
Old Kildonan: Devi Sharma (former assistant to O'Shaugnhessy)
Mynarski: Ross Eadie
North Kildonan: Jeff Browaty
Elmwood-East Kildonan: Shaneen Robinson
Transcona: Russ Wyatt
St. Boniface: Dan Vandal
St. Vital: Gord Steeves
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi
St. Norbert: Justin Swandel (if any suburban ward gives an upset, it will be this one as challenger Louise May has run an impressive campaign)
River Heights-Fort Garry-Lindenwoods: John Orlikow
Aristotle, I don't know the players apart from JWL. How does your projected council split politically? Is this a hopeful projection for progressives?
Can't really disagree with those picks, except that I think that the Mayoralty, Daniel Mac, Mynarski, Elmwood-EK and River Heights will all be squeakers. Unfortunately, those are all seats where Aristotle is predicting left-leaning candidates to win.
Assuming Aristotle's prediction comes to pass, I would say council breaks down something along the following lines (remembering that it's often about pro- vs. anti-mayor rather than left vs. right). There would be five reasonably solid progressive / pro-Mayor Judy votes - Bellamy, Eadie, Robinson, Vandal and Gerbasi. Orlikow leans left but has wavered on some issues - if he survives the traffic circle backlash and there are a few more progressives on council, he might become a sixth 'solid' vote. Then there would be another three 'swing' votes that could be pushed left or cajoled to back Mayor Judy, at least on certain issues: Wyatt, Steeves (who will do whatever it takes to get in the sitting mayor's good graces) and Pagtakhan. Sharma is a question mark but if he's cut from the same cloth as O'Shaugnessy (being his former EA) he would likely tilt to the right-wing / anti-Judy camp. Swandel is kind of hard to pin down but I'd probably put him in the anti-Judy camp. Browaty, Havixbeck, Nordman and Fielding are all Tories and definitely anti-Judy.
As I see it, there are about five hardcore progressive votes, four or five right-wingers, and the rest can be pushed to vote either way depending on the issue.
Assuming Aristotle is right, I think the votes are there to support progressive initiatives but a Mayor Judy WL will have to use the bully pulpit to rally enough council votes to pass her agenda. The problem is we could very easily end up with a Mayor Judy WL but a clear right-wing majority on council (eg if Taruc wins in Daniel Mac, Motkaluk wins Mynarski, Kowalson wins River Heights and Giesbrecht or Steen win Elmwood-EK). Or, God forbid, we could end up with Mayor Katz *and* a right-wing majority on council.
I hope you're right. I really wouldn't know. It seems to me I am seeing more Ian Rabb signs than those for Gerbasi.
Sam got things through by forming an inner, "executive" circle that made decisions about a number of things. Judy could do the same. Boy, would we hear an outcry about that all of a sudden!
I would do it anyway, just to shove it back in their faces. But that's me. :)
I agree the mayor's race will be a squeaker. Here's why I'm willing to stand by my predictions for each seat:
Daniel Mac: Strong NDP ward. Smith has incumbency, Bellamy has organisation.
Mynarski: This is an open seat. Since it's in the North End, that gives the NDP an advantage, and with the number of people in the race it doesn't take a large number of votes, just organisation and getting your vote out.
Elmwood: If you wave the NDP flag in this ward, you've got it. In fact, opposite to ghoris, perhaps Giesbrecht and Steen may even split the right vote
River Hieghts: Some people are not happy with the tactics of the Kowalson camp. Speaking of Kowalson, he's been targeted over some lawsuits he was involved in. I really hope this wasn't orchestrated by the Orlikow camp, and I'm not a fan of dirty politics, but it's nice to finally see the gang backing Kowalson getting a taste of its own medicine.
Something I forgot to mention about St. Norbert is that the NDP shipped one of its organizers there to help Louise May. I wonder if that speaks not only to the NDP's thoughts on the mayoral race but how realistic they think they can defeat Swandel. Any other thoughts?
By the way, if we shift westard for a couple of hours, for those who are familiar with the Wheat City, what do you think of Brandon electing a centre-left mayor?
Most of the Rabb signs I've seen are in front of buildings he owns. I'm guessing most of the people inside those buildings will go for Gerbasi.
Mind you, she's taking some flak over a proposed development in Lord Roberts, so we may not know.
IRRC, Brandon elects NDP MLAs from time to time, and Brandon itself is the best NDP polls in an otherwise unhopeful federal riding.
Of course, I could be wrong.
Brandon East is a safe NDP seat, and Brandon West is traditionally conservative (the Scott Smith era notwithstanding). As for federally, the party always polls higher in Brandon that it does federally. Normally safely Conservative, but if the NDP ever start polling in the 30s federally (especially if this rise corresponds with a collapse of the Conservative vote) then this riding is in play.
Gordon Sinclair's column this past Saturday about Ian Rabb using Taras Sokolyk, the principal culprit in the two previous Tory vote rigging scandals, did not
seem to get traction in any other media that I saw.
I have no use for Steeves, but this would be great if it works out, because he is currently the right faction's best spokesperson.
What would be really nice is if he runs for Mayor in 2014. That way we can be rid of him as Judy wins a second term, and maybe St. Vital will break its habit of imposing horrible councillors on the rest of the city.
Oh well, I can dream, can't I?
I think Steeves is a classic Liberal - wishy-washy, goes where the wind blows, latches onto whatever happens to be the flavour of the week and, most importantly, is all about holding power. Thus he was perfectly willing to get onboard with Glen Murray and serve on his EPC, and was equally happy to cozy up to Katz in order to keep his EPC seat after the change of the guard in 2004. Steeves' mayoral ambitions are the worst-kept secret at City Hall, but he is too cautious to take on a sitting incumbent. If Judy WL wins, I think Steeves is more likely to try and wait her out than challenge her in 2014, unless she makes a complete hash of her term and looks unlikely to be re-elected (a la Larry O'Brien in Ottawa). If, God forbid, Katz is re-elected and this is his last term, watch for Steeves to be one of the first in line to run in 2014.
That would be a good thing, because I really don't see any other heavy-hitters among the right flank of council.
Polls open soon. I implore every Winnipegger to please vote, if you haven't already.
Katz has been re-elected. With 71 percent of votes in, Katz has a 20,000 vote lead.
Some interesting council results. Many too close to call.
NDP-backed Shaneen Robinson lost a safe NDP seat in Elmwood-East Kildonan to Conservative Thomas Steen. The presence of crypto-NDP candidate Rod Giesbrecht (who lost the NDP nomination to Robinson but who I am certain is really a Tory) split the vote and let Steen come up the middle.
Daniel Mac councillor Harvey Smith, who lost the NDP nomination to Keith Belllamy, appears to have prevailed in a tight three-way race with Bellamy and WCC co-chair Cindy Gilroy-Price.
Justin Swandel beat back a challenge from NDP-backed Louise May.
NDP-backed Ross Eadie won in Mynarski over Lazarenko-endorsed Jenny Motkaluk and John Orlikow won fairly handily over Kowalson in River Heights - the only silver linings I can find in this election.
If I were Greg Selinger, I'd be very, very worried by these results.
Selinger should be worried as should be Layton.
The official involvement of the NDP did no favours in my view, But I guess that these municipal elections serve lots of review by party strategists because the NDP are failing to get a decent, cohesive message out.
What "official" involvement of the NDP was there? Of course Judy W-L is an NDP MP - so it goes without saying that almost all NDP brass in Winnipeg will be rooting for her - but she had Liberals Sharon Carstairs and Anita Neville backing her as well and when I was in Winnipeg a few weeks ago I didn't see any NDP logos on her election signs. I assume that there was at least as much "unofficial" Conservative involvement in the Katz campaign - if not more.
I'm sure Layton would have liked to see his friend and colleague win - but I'm not sure why he needs to "worry" about who wins that mayoralty of Winnipeg. If that's the case, maybe Stephen Harper needs to worry because non-Conservatives won the mayoralty in both Edmonton and Calgary last week!
The talk in this town, Winnipeg, was that a well-oiled NDP campaign team was helping Judy and a slew of NDP nominated counsellor nominees with this election. They were running on a slate.
As for Layton and his team, they should pay serious attention. I already compared Judy's campaign material to Naheed's campaign in Calagary. There is a stark difference in engaging the public.