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There was an official NDP nomination process in a number of council seats, including Daniel Mac and Elmwood - where both nominees lost - and in Mynarski, where the nominee won.
In any event, whether "official" or "unofficial", NDP-backed candidates came up short tonight across the city and Tory-backed candidates were successful. Ross Eadie was the only NDP-backed non-incumbent to win a seat. I agree that it's hard to see how this will have implications for Layton and the federal party, to airily claim that this result does not have implications for the provincial NDP is simply to ignore reality. Sam Katz did a masterful job of painting this election as a quasi-referendum on the provincial NDP government. More time was spent on provincial issues (and in Katz's case, attacking the province) than just about any other issue.
I have been saying for a while that this election would be a 'dress rehearsal' for the 2011 provincial election, much in the same way that 1998 was a 'dress rehearsal' for 1999 and the victory of Glen Murray and election of several new left-leaning councillors (which prompted a Tory wag to comment "Welcome to the People's Republic of Winnipeg") foreshadowed the collapse of support for the Filmon Tories in the 1999 provincial election. As I said, if I were Greg Selinger these results would be making me very nervous.
I agree 100% that Layton and his people should pay close attention and take lessons from campaigns that were successful like Nenshi's and those that were not like Judy W-L. I agree that the Manitoba NDP may view this as "cautionary", but for the federal NDP - its just another electoral episode with teachable moments.
My own suspicion is that its easier to sell change and novelty with a neophyte like Nenshi than with someone like Judy (who I like very much) who has been in politics for about 30 years and has been a provincial cabinet minister, a federal MP etc...
Final results with 100% of polls reporting:
Katz 116,308 - 55%
Wasylicia-Leis - 90,913 - 43%
Council races (party affiliations noted do not appear on the ballot):
Charleswood-Tuxedo: Paula Havixbeck (Tory) defeats Jarret Hannah (Ind.) by 56 votes.
Daniel MacIntyre: Harvey Smith (incumbent) defeats Cindy Gilroy-Price (WCC/Liberal) by 108 votes and Keith Bellamy (NDP) by 352 votes.
Elmwood-East Kildonan: Thomas Steen (Tory) defeats Shaneen Robinson (NDP) by 216 votes. Former NDP nomination candidate Rod Giesbrecht finishes 204 votes behind Robinson.
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi (NDP incumbent) defeats Ian Rabb (Tory) by 5,109 votes.
Mynarski: Ross Eadie (NDP) defeats Jenny Motkaluk by 1,273 votes.
North Kildonan: Jeff Browaty (Tory incumbent) defeats Bryan Olynik (NDP) by 4,403 votes.
Old Kildonan: Devi Sharma (Lib?) defeats Casey Jones by 1,463 votes.
Point Douglas: Mike Pagtakhan (Lib incumbent) defeats Dean Koshelanyk by 5,510 votes.
River Heights: John Orlikow (WCC incumbent) defeats Michael Kowalson (Tory) by 2,036 votes.
St. Boniface: Dan Vandal (NDP incumbent) defeats Chris Watt by 11,951 (!) votes.
St. Charles: Grant Nordman (Tory incumbent) defeats Shawn Dobson (Ind.) by 2,103 votes. NDPer Lloyd Finlay a distant third.
St. James-Brooklands: Scott Fielding (Tory incumbent) defeats Deanne Crothers by 3,034 votes.
St. Norbert: Justin Swandel (Liberal incumbent) defeats Louise May (NDP) by 1,853 votes.
St. Vital: Gord Steeves (Liberal incumbent) defeats Harry Wolbert (Liberal) by 11,753 (!) votes.
Transcona: Russ Wyatt (incumbent) defeats Vlad Kowalyk by 7,618 votes.
Ready for some good news?
Brandon elected its first ever left-of-cetnre mayor, and several councillors have gone down to defeat (one in third place).
I'm far more nervous about the fact that Greg Selinger is the man who will be leading the NDP into the next campaign.
In any case, I think the best outcome of the next provincial election would be a McFadyen minority: It satisfies the "desire for change," McFadyen has enough rope to hang himself, a minority would limit the damage, as the Liberals wouldn't want to lose votes to the NDP, and it would provide some breathing room to replace the out-of-touch clique that has a grip on the Manitoba NDP.
Is Shari Decter Hirst any relation to Michael Decter?
Generally good news out of Brandon, although it appears NDP stalwart, former federal NDP candidate and longtime council mainstay Errol Black lost re-election by a single vote.
I think you're thinking of Dr. Derry Decter, who challenged Jim McCrae in the 1995 provincial election.
As for Brandon, the unfortunate thing is that several right-wing incumbents were not challenged, which I think they could have been bounced off, considering that there was an obvious desire for change in the Wheat City. Too bad about Errol, I know.
BTW, I forgot to qualify my last post by saying that if McFadyen gets a majority, all bets are off.
Anyways ghoris, how do you figure the NDP is doomed in Manitoba? You said the same thing during the last civic election yet they pulled through.
In terms of specific candidates, I think Harvey Smith deserves congratulations for being elected back to council, and I would also like to give a shout out to Louise May who ran one hell of a campaign and unfortunately failed to knock off Swandel.
I think the main issue with the campaign (and this is probably where the communication gaps come into play) is that she tried to win the city the same way she was able to win a safe north-end NDP seat. I don’t think she was equipped to run for a position like the mayor where you have to clearly communicate your ideas, defend them to the media and against opponents, and get at your opponent’s weaknesses.
If you look at the results in Brandon specifically, I know someone else who should be very, very worried:
Drew Caldwell.
Isn't Brandon East considered a pretty super-safe NDP seat (unlike Brandon West)?
I was somewhat puzzled by the generic platform she presented, except for the property tax issue, which was a brave and, imo, successful move. But I didn't feel there was much else to go on, and a "crime" thing just seems like such a non-issue to me, and merely shadows a fabricated conservative agenda. Of course, I don't even know what Sam was campaigning on, and it was probably much much less and that much more insipid than what Judy had to offer, so I'm not sure that's saying too much.
But even comparing the Brandon candidate's platform, which mentions specific Brandon issues and specific, unambiguous policy stances--and she won on that--frankly, I think this is what voters are looking for. They want to know what and who they're voting for, and I think they like to see a candidate take a risk and take a stance, even if it's not one they necessarily agree with. Like the tax issue. I think this is the more near future in politics. People are tired of hearing generic buzzwords. They want to know your plan.
And yes, I think she could have played up Sam's weaknesses much more.
Well the post for Mayor of Brandon used to be a safe post, and the Elmwood area of Winnipeg also used to be safe for the NDP municipally. Not anymore.
Results in Calgary, Toronto, Winnpeg and Brandon clearly show that people are frustrated, ready for change, and ready to break old habits. "Super-safe" and "safe" seats are a thing of the past. If an incumbent is actively advocating on the concerns of the voters who elected him/her, (s)he will be rewarded. If not, (s)he will be defeated. That simple.
I do remember Derry Decter now that you mention his name, but I was thinking of Michael Decter, who was Pawley's cabinet secretary and then Bob Rae's DM of Health, where he ended up being one of the key architects of the Social Contract. He wrote a book about health care called "Four Strong Winds".
Did I? I don't recall saying that but I stand to be corrected. I suppose I have a tendency to read too much into these things, but unlike 2006/07 I think there is more of a risk of the Tories riding in on a "time for a chance" mantra. Not to mention Katz basically ran this time, and won, on a "The NDP is Evil" platform. I guess we'll see where things stand in a year and maybe I'll tone down the doom and gloom for now. ;)
Traditionally, yes, but the Tories have been steadily chipping away at it the last few elections. Last time they got a very respectable 40% of the vote. Caldwell getting passed over for cabinet again won't help him.
I think katz won this because he told people what they wanted to hear: more cops, "open for business", no property tax hike, etc. And after the three people getting shot apparently at random a few days ago, i'm sure plenty of people went for the supposed "law and order" vote.
ugh. more of the same.
At the risk of sounding too mean, to me, Sam epitomizes everything that is wrong with Winnipeg. And the fact that Winnipeggers voted him back in bodes very ill for this city, again.
Like someone said to me tonight, "I'm disappointed with Winnipeg tonight."
Good point about Shari's platform, I hadn't paid much attention.
Anyways, as much as the press is going to spin it, in the end, I don't think this is exactly a ringing endorsement for Sam. People just don't like him, they feel like there's something sleazy. When you polled the public, with the exception of crime, they lined up behind Judy's position on every issue, so clearly the desire for progressive change was there. I think the message got lost, and as you said, after people became engaged, they didn't know what to expect under mayor Judy, so they reluctantly went with the devil they knew.
I totally agree, I'm transplanted to Winnipeg and it never ceases to amaze me how little vision there is here for making the city something to be proud of. I had hopes for some transformation with Glenn Murray as Mayor but change didn't come nearly fast enough.
That might have had something to do with the fact that Murray bailed as soon as the Liberals dangled the prospect of a federal political career in front of him.
This thread
The other problem is that those who live outside of Winnipeg generally feel that all attention is paid to Winnipeg and the outlying areas get nothing. Not having a Cabinet representative in southwestern Manitoba will really alienate that portion of the province, and basically ensures that Brandon-West stays Tory. The 2 constituencies were created in 1969, and generally tended to elect members of opposite parties. There was generally a balance in Brandon: one of the MLAs was in Cabinet, and one was an Oppositon Critic, depending on who governed. I don't know what Gary Doer and Greg Sellinger were thinking. It's now becoming really apparent that not electing Ashton as leader was a mistake, because Ashton clearly understands the power of the grassroots.
Since we're pontificating on the provincial election, I'll also point out that in each election the Manitoba NDP has been running against Gary Filmon since 1990. I think the brain rust in the party is stupid enough to try that again.
That's the other elephant in the room is the fact that we seriously mishandled the succession from Glen Murray. What went wrong? Ironically enough, had he not bailed, tonight might even have marked the start of his fourth term in office.
Related to that, the left has been trying to "take back City Hall" for a long time, starting with the Civic Reform Coalition in the 70s, Winnipeg Into The Nineties, and most recently the Winnipeg Citizen's Coalition. It absolutely boggles my mind that these groupings, by and large, have been completely ineffective at mustering any momentum for progressive change, and those in charge of the Citizen's Coalition talk as if the Winnipeg left is charting new ground. We're not, we're basically making the same mistakes over and over and getting the same results.
OK, I stand corrected. ;)
Re: WIN - they did quite well in 1989, IIRC. I think they even won a majority of council. They didn't do quite as well in 1992 but that was largely because the Tories had chopped the number of wards in half which forced many WIN councillors to run against other incumbents.
I had never heard of the Civic Reform Coalition. I was always under the impression that prior to WIN, the left ran under the banner of the Civic NDP (or municipal NDP) while the pro-business right ran under the ICEC banner. Guys like Lawrie Cherniak and Magnus Eliason were elected as explicitly NDP candidates in the 1970s, unfortunately they were always distinctly in the minority. IIRC the NDP only managed 7/50 council seats in the first Unicity election, which admittedly was probably the result of a suburban backlash against Unicity itself. The ICEC evolved sometime in the 1980s into the more loosely-organized "Gang of 18", which WIN was formed to oppose. Brian Corrin ran as an explictly NDP candidate for mayor in 1983 (and got thrashed by Norrie) and there was an organized NDP slate of council candidates in 1983 and 1986 (which also fared pretty poorly). The ICEC (and its successor the Gang of 18) succeeded as a broad-based coalition of Tories, Liberals, business and development interests pushing a right-leaning, pro-business, pro-development agenda. I would argue that the 'left' has only matched that success when it organizes itself into a similar broad-based coalition. The problem with the WCC, as I see it, was really one of a lack of organization and direction, as opposed to being a doomed experiment from the start.
I wish Pagtakhan had been challenged. Who knows, a successful NDP challenge could have unseated him and provided more balance to council. The guy's useless. He's going to continue to suck up to Katz now.
So here are some ideas for where to go from here:
1 Increase the number of city wards in Winnipeg. At the very least, align ward boundaries among provincial constituencies. I'm not sure if there is any other city in Canada that elects fewer councillors than MLAs. This means that a city councillor has responsibility for more constituents than an MLA and without the attendant resources to respond appropriately. In my view, this should pave the way for a Metropolitan council, with each area electing its own mayor and council to deal with the little things (i.e. parks, snow removal) and the metropolitan government would take care of the bigger picture. Also, it would make it easier for challengers, as it would be less ground they had to cover. Speaking of challengers:
2 Introduce a party system for Winnipeg civic elections. Political parties are already up to their neck in municipal politics, let's be honest about that. It would also end the double-standard where Katz gets to criticize the NDP for taking over City Hall while being backed by Conservatives. It doesn't even have to be along the same lines as provincially, just get it out in the open.
3 CAN IT WITH ROBO-CALLS (sorry to shout but this is a pet-peeve of mine). It's basically telemarketing, and I don't know one person who likes receiving them. And telemarketers at least have the decency to make the effort to call you personally, it's so cheap to send a machine to talk to people. There's no dialogue, no engagement, just a machine telling you what to think. Additionally, if someone on the do-not-call list is picked up, that will just make them far more agitated and less likely to vote for you. It's far more effective to send a mass e-mail to your supporters saying, "tell 5 friends why you're voting for Judy and ask them to pass the message along," and the money saved could go to something else. I don't care who else does robo-calls, let them take the flack, while building up a grassroots network.
Maybe even more interesting (at least from this distance) is that Inky Mark was defeated for the Dauphin mayoralty...
It also needs to be said that the 2 fringe candidates, Rav Gill and Brad Gross, were horrible candidates. Some of the criticism of the media about how they were ignored is fair, but given how polarized the race between the 2 front runners was, that was to be expected. When you are a fringe candidate, the advantage is you can basically say what you want, and you have more room to take on something big that really excites people. They offered the same gimmicks as the other 2 front runners, and were not up to the challenge.
Vancouver only has 10 councillors. Has always been thus. In fact, I thought it was the norm across cities.
What would city councillors be doing specific to their wards that MLAs wouldn't do? I guess I mean what kinds of specific civic duties do councillors have now that would be overly burdensome?
Vancouver is a bit different because councillors there are elected at large, not by ward.
As for what city councillors would do, smaller wards would free up resources for them to focus on specific matters, especially given their limited budgets and resources. And it would be easier to challenge them at election time, since there isn't a formal party apparatus that can do that.
Given the comments on the Winnipeg mayors race, it sounds like many think that the voters were stupid voting for the eventual winner. If that is the belief then I'm truly saddenned by those who feel they are superior to the wishes of the average voter. No matter what the result the electorate is always right.
The machine behind JWL was far from well-oiled and it had both NDP and Liberal party elements. The campaign was a clunker; she made the announcement in spring and then did nothing until the middle of September. Some basic groundwork should have been done in May and June and then a solid re-start at the Labor day weekend. Further to that, you need a larger base of work done well before any candidacy to clearly outline what are the real issues that face Winnipeg and to do that you have to by-pass the media (use the Internet, more work on the street etc). The Winnipeg Sun is a constant hammer job on the issue of crime as is the CTV affiliate and without confronting that problem you go nowhere.
The Winnipeg Citizen Coalition and their plan of blandness came to nothing as anyone relatively aware would have predicted. What was the name of that PR firm from Toronto in which that they put so much faith? I wish I knew so that other could have some memory of who to avoid/ignore in the future. There is no learning without a learning curve.
Hence why I never formally singed up even though I was around for the initial discussions.