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BCNDP Leadership Crisis IV (Dec 5)
December 5, 2010 - 9:28pm
?
So, a (positive) step back from the brink today. The NDP has postponed their emergency leadership meeting. This probably (probably) means we won't see the Bakers Dozen kicked out of caucus en masse.
What happens from here is still uncertain, but the momentum has moved towards seeing Carole James either resign or fight in a leadership convention.
Here is my guess at what might be going on: I wonder if they are trying to find some sort of face saving compromise where everyone puts some water in their wine. I can think of only one move that would do that - given that Carole James resigning right away would be something that might upset her own followers and might seem like the tail wagging the dog - since there are still more MLAs supporting her than opposing her and there is also a majority on provincial council who back her.
I wonder if they will move towards the solution that Baill Tieleman suggested a few weeks ago - move the convention and leadership review up from next November to this coming March. I think that this would have a number of virtues. Carole James can have an honest shot at trying to sell herself to her party over the next three months. If she somehow succeeds in doing so - then all the better and she will have withstood the challenge and as the saying goes - whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger. If she fails and the party votes to get a new leader - it will be just weeks after the BC Liberals will have chosen their new leader and the NDP will then have time to have a wide open leadership race in the spring with an eye to picking the person who can best stack up against whoever the new premier will be by then.
That's a thought.
I think the drama will slow down from this point, we might see negotiations draw out a couple weeks. Hopefully that at least takes this whole thing off the front pages of the newspaper.
I think they need a leadership contest (with James in if she wants) ASAP. Get it over before the end of JANUARY.
Elect your new leader BEFORE the bc libs elect theirs!
I know that sounds fast to people of process but really, what use is a party that cannot move fast in a crisis?
Otherwise, I bet the minute the bc lib leader is elected, they will call an election and the essentially leaderless (and without policies) NDP will be destroyed.
Getting it done that quick would even impress me. It would be the type of quick turnaround that would impress the rest of BC too.
I think you mean platform not policy. There is plenty of policy, but it's a little hard to access for the average Party member.
I think that would be ridiculous. Its already Dec. 5 and the holidays are coming up - you can't have an entire OMOV leadership race in two weeks and expect candidates to have a serious chance of campaigning among the membership and being vetted etc...
Even if Carol James was hit by a truck today - there might be an interim leader appointed and then you would need AT LEAST three months to have a full fledged leadership race. People need time to sign up members and campaign etc...This isn't Australia where the caucus can pick a new leader on a days notice just like that. After all the agony the NDP is going through right now - the last thing they need is to pick a new leader hastily with no vetting. That sort of thinking is what got the federal Liberals stuck with Igantieff!
Of course Ignatieff was vetted by a Leadership Convention and found wanting. The Party can and would pick an interim Leader on a few days notice if required.
Surely the NDP has enough members already to elect a new leader? Signing up members and campaining seems like a lot of effing around to me. And worse, it reminds me of how Paul Martin "Won" Bought? the leadership racefor the liberals a few years ago.
Enough of that, a clean race with no cheating.
The current ndp members have been looking at this (In horror presumably) for the last year or 2. And they also interact with the general public in a way that the elites on both sides do not. (For real!) You and I give people higher on the social ladder curtesy if we meet them. And this applys to just about everyone.
So often I would give the polite response even if I think the person is an asshole. But the person up the ladder takes the curtesy as deference.
But the ordinary members hear the real deal from the general public.
Who better to make an informed decision? With your proposed instant members, you have to hire them, you got to bus them around, and you got to politically inform them "Vote for James". I do not see that process as having any advantage of fairness over a quick 1 week campaign.
This is not the bluddy US of A. Leave their bullshit south of the border.
A one week leadership campaign would be a FARCE. The NDP needs to give some serious thought to picking someone who has a solid progressive vision and who can reunite factions and who will apeal to the general public - you make it sound like the party President should flip a coin to decide who should lead the party into the next election and probably become Premier!
If the NDP picks a new leader my flipping a coin - then we are better off sticking with a known quantity like Carole James. Its not as if their is a clear alternative to James - the way Martin was waiting in the wings after Chretien - or for that matter the way that Harcourt was unopposed for the NDP leadership after Skelly stepped down.
"Surely the NDP has enough members already to elect a new leader? Signing up members and campaining seems like a lot of effing around to me."
Sorry is elections and due process seem like such an inconvenient waste of time to you.
I think we're probably looking at a March, 2011, one member-one vote leadership convention, that is if cooler heads prevail. The issue is strictly about electibility, and forming the government, and on that basis the candidate who demonstrates the best potential in that area will win the contest.
Don't believe everything you read in the mainstream press
NDP emergency caucus meeting postponed
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/12/05/bc-ndp-meeting-james-kwan.html
because
www.theleftcoast.ca
BC NDP working on reconciliation
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-ndp-wor...
--
BC NDP working on reconciliation
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-ndp-wor...
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/BC-Politics/2010/12/05/MeetingMovement/
Broad labels don't seem to apply to diverse group of MLAs revolting against leader Carole James.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/12/04/13NDPDissidents/
Big leadership contest coming to BC in May of 2013. And the Liberals will be running on their record in power. Needless to say it sucks to be them.
I think Stockholm's scenario is a lot more likely, with Convention and its regular leadership review moved up to the same time.
Calling for a new leadership race would be Carole James completely throwing in the towel. And there is no indication she is in that weak a position. And I rather doubt that all of the 13 would even want that.
Moving the vote up to March would get enough of what they want. A delegated vote would probably be more stacked against them. But that fact will just be rolled into the consensus thought on how much of a victory Carole James needs to put the battles behind her. The threshold is not going to be the technical 50% plus 1 that stamps her right to stay. She talks like all she needs is her right to stay, period. They all do. But if that is all she needed she wouldnt betalking a compromise with the 13.
At least that would be more honest than several of you Jane Sterk supporters pretending you are a concerned NDP supporter
LEADERSHIP REVIEW CONSTITUTIONAL RESOLUTION !
The coming Convention is your chance to bring in the kind of leadership review that gives an adult process, rather than being left with only the option of all this nasty warring.
Have a stand alone OMOV leadership review X months after an election. [Unless the NDP has won government, or the Leader has served less than 2 years.]
If Convention does get moved up to March, then all the attention is going to be on the battle royale around Carole James. Very few people will be paying attention to long term remedies. And besides, the air will be poisoned.
None of that matters as long as the resolution would come after the vote on leadership. And the latter will be early on.
The Nova Scotia NDP brought in OMOV leadership voting first- when there was still a great deal of generalized skepticism whether it was a good idea. On top of that, our Convention was in the aftermath of a bloodbath over leadership. Over, but with scores to be settled. Not to mention that we had less discussion than other sections and the feds about OMOV.
We put in a resolution for OMOV anyway. It wasnt even well written. And I didnt give it much chance. But after the battles, people were ready for it. After some discussion showed that the concept had a possibility of passing with the required 2/3 support, we got it tabled and a group worked up a version that would satisfy the various concerns.
So get a resolution developed. And worry how you are going to do it when you get there.
In the previous thread I argued why leadership reviews have to be stand alone and why the timing of them has to be set out in the Constitution. [Automatic, and with very narrow discretion allowed on the exact timing chosen].
I'm not up on who out there has good models of stand alone leadership reviews. The Nova Scotia Liberals have something that is stand alone and OMOV. But I dont know when and how it is triggered. They had one during the tenure in the 90's of their government. That isnt generally necessary, or even something you want to lock into. But it served them well enough. Premeir Savage moved decisively for the first time any NS government had against the most outrageous bannana republic patronage. Which earned him a lot of respect and popularity- except in large parts of his own party. His decisive win in the leadership review- which didnt look guaranteed- took the wind out of the dinosaur's sails. [They did take down Savage in the end, but thats another story. And it was his slash and burn through the government that gave them their chance.]
You are both probably correct. Both sides may have just averted a public confrontation that neither are probably eager for. I think they are talking now, behind the scenes. Carole wil probably try to isolate each dissident and pressure them that way but I'm quite sure they too are talking among themselves.
Hot off the press:
Brian Topp: Reconciling the irreconcilable in British ColumbiaGood column, as usual.
And mostly it is pitched at "what gets us into this sort of problem in the first place". [Parties in general, not just the NDP.]
But the closing is a good point for people to keep in mind here and now: "But maybe it is time for us to better understand that political parties are composed of a number of empowered stakeholders, and that they are all going to have their say, one way or another."
I don't think an accelerated leadership process (with limited opportunity for candidates to campaign) would solve any problem. One of the dissidents' complaint was the lack of credibility of the council vote. Clearly only a properly conducted leadership review where every member got to participate would resolve this conflict.
I agree that a leadership race right now would not be much of a compromise. I think even the dissidents would acknowledged that she is a duly elected leader and the only proper way to get rid of her is through a duly conducted review.
There have been lots of good suggestions here within the past 24 hours, even from people who don't live in BC, imagine that,
so thanks to all of you who give a shit and actually think it's important for the BC NDP, obviously with a good progressive platform, to win the next election. Speed is of essence but not unnecessary speed.
The review should just be skipped and a leadership race started. The idea that the NDP would have a leadership race with only the existing membership is a dead duck suggestion. The problem the BC NDP is having is it is getting no traction with the public. Its memberships and donations are way down from historic levels. It needs renewal and new energy. It needs progressives out convincing their neighbours to join the party to back their preferred candidate. It needs the energy of a leadership campaign not another stack the meetings leadership race to give us the "Son of Ujjhal" to carry the "progressive" flag into battle.
A leadership campaign ending in late April would work. If it is close enough in time to when the Liberals are done then they will pay a price for trying a snap election but if it is anything approaching 6 months the Liberals will go to the polls and not pay a price for a snap election.
The Liberals have a HUGE problem with calling a snap election and not waiting a few months - namely the HST referendum. In any scenario where they turn things around they need to first of all have a throne speech where the new Premier lays out some policies and then they need to get the HST referendum behind them so that they don't have it hanging over them like a sword of Damocles during the campaign!
Stock they don't play by the rules and never have so why would you expect them to do it now? If the BC Liberals think there is a way they can jam the NDP with an early election then their past tells me they will do it in a heart beat. The new Fiberal leader will bring in a revised HST Act that covers the concerns of most people and once passed the other Act is repealed, then they are good to go. The BC Liberals are masters of changing the rules to suit their purposes. Just ask the HEU or BCFMWU. Rules are made to be changed to gain an advantage is all I've seen from this Howe Street crowd in the last decade.
Nothing is set in stone if the Liberals have an option of changing it. These are the people who ripped up collective agreements and changed labour laws to make a legal strike illegal, long before they pissed the rest of the voters off with their HST crap. To expect them to follow any process in their control if it helps the NDP is IMO naive. They play politics for keeps and don't care about morality or the rule of law. In this Province they have media cheerleaders like Baldrey to help them in their propaganda wars so going to the polls if it looks like they can win will be cheered on as "true democracy" by every news outlet in BC.