BC NDP: Who should be the next leader? III

I'm not so sure about that. The "baker's dozen" seem to be all over the map politically - they all wanted to James to quit - but a couple of them were very lukewarm about it and said that they were just going along with what their riding association members wanted. Others just wanted someone who would be more popular than James - but who wanted to take the party in the same direction. Others just had some personal grudge against her. I would be surprised if anyone from the 13 bothers to make a serious run for the leadership - most of them are considered be to very mediocre and/or inexperienced. I think I read that Harry Lali was considering running - but I think he widely regarded as a bit of a joke and as being very abrasive.

To get better government, you need a competent Premier who knows what he or she is doing - and for that you need some relvant experience

The other risk in calling an election while the NDP leadership race is in progress is that the NDP leadership race generates interest in the NDP.  As discussed, the NDP leadership is no more than six weeks after the Libs and no more than five weeks after the new Liberal premier can get installed and get over to the Lieutenant Governor (who could, arguably, tell the new premier to get stuffed). 

Even if the NDP leadership were scheduled for (no more than) one week after eday, the Party Council in an emergency meeting would have the capacity to enact some contingency (which they should probably have in place anyway).  So, you actually end up with the election being focussed on the NDP and the excitement of a leadership race, criticism of the Liberal leader for an apparent dirty trick, and the new NDP leader (by original plan or by contingency) being chosen in the last 7 - 10 days of the campaign.  The NDP leader's post-convention bump trumps the Liberal leader's post-convention bump . . .

The more I think this through, the more moronic it is for the new Liberal premier to pull this kind of crap.

Interesting...

As for Liberal Christmas wishes, they wouldn't mind seeing Adrian Dix emerge as the NDP leader. He still has skeletons rattling around his closet from his days as Glen Clark's chief of staff. A left-wing blowhard such as John Horgan would be good for the Libs, while an old-school union boss such as Jim Sinclair would be a dream target.

The Liberals would be nervous about Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson returning to provincial politics. He has some flair and makes the ladies weak in the knees with that movie-star face. On the other hand, his image as an urban, tree-hugging, bicycle-riding flake could turn off rural voters.

But several Liberals privately confide that NDP house leader Mike Farnworth is the guy they least want to face. He's tough. He's suburban -- not a downtown "champagne socialist" like Robertson. And he's one of the few New Democrats to ever take a tough-on-crime stand and make it sound convincing.

I love that Stockholm is just an echo chamber for the most rightwing pundits in the BC media.

Of course Mike Smyth would love to see the BC NDP led by the most rightwing BC NDP MLA.  The less real debate and progressive framing, the better for The Province and it's agenda setters.  However, just as the MSM loved Paul Martin and Michael Ignatieff before they became leader, there's no guarantee that the 'insightful' pundits Stockholm keeps quoting, will continue their support once an election breaks out.  Much more likely, would be that they would revert to boosting the BC Liberals and using whatever they can to attack the BC NDP as soon as the BC NDP had successfully alienated it's progressive base.

This is spot on and the choice the BC NDP faces. 

Curious... what makes Farnworth so right-wing?

Sometimes other parties fear certain candidates from the other side because they have the gravitas to be Premier... and voters will see that.

Interesting to note as well... he seems spot on regarding who BC New Democrats would like to face in the next election.

I did not express my own opinion about what Smyth wrote - i simply posted it to stimulate some discussion about the pros and cons of the various people who are likely to run for the BC NDP leadership. If people want to argue against what Smyth wrote - then good - that is what I want to see. I don't see why SOME PEOPLE are trying to personally attack me as if I must agree with the Smyth column...I just thought it was interesting and I was curious to see if people would take issue with what he wrote.

First of all, once again - if I had my choice - the BC NDP would still be led by a Metis woman named Carole James. But thanks to the dissidents - she was destroyed and there is about a 99% chance that her successor will be a white male - since that describes all the leading candidxates to succeed her. If you wanted an NDP leader who symbolized diversity - maybe you should have thought twice before supporting the with-hunt against Carole James.

The past premiers of BC are almost all people I would describe as "qualified". Yes, Vander Zalm owned a flower shop once uppon a time. But he was also mayor of Surrey and he had several senior cabinet posts in the Bennett governments of the 70s and 80s. Harcourt and Campbell had both been mayor of Vancouver - I would consider that a good qualification fo the job of Premier. Glen Clark had been Finance Minister under Harcourt. One person who was clearly UNqualified was trailer park owner Rita Johnston - but look at what a total flop she was!

I'm sorry, but the facts are the facts. Whoever the NDP picks as leader is very likely to be leading the party in an election campign very soon after taking over the leadership and they may be premier after that. This means that the NDP better pick someone with little or no learning curve for the job. Someone who knows the relevant files inside out.

The strategy of trying to motivate non-voters fails 100% of the time. I think James Carville said it best "There is a word for someone who claims they are going to win by getting people who never vote to suddenly turn out at the polls and put them over the top - a LOSER".

For all the talk about Obama bringing in new voters - the turnout among people under 30 only went up 1% from 2004 to 2008.

I think its interesting to hear about who the BC Liberals fear the most among BC NDP potential leaders. It doesn't mean that they are correct in terms of who they think they should fear - note that the guy I hear the most good things about John Horgan - is apparently dismissed by the BC Libs as a "leftwing blow-hard". Its just a point of information. But more often than not when other parties start trying to choose who they want their opponents to pick - they get it wrong.

Its also a myth that leftwing parties necessarily benefit from a higher turnout. In the recent New Brunswick election, the turnout in Tracadie-Sheila - where the NDP leader was trying to get elected was - was 87 PERCENT - and he lost by a wide margin to a Tory. Australia has compulsory voting and 95% turnout rates - and the rightwing Liberal party wins there more often than not.

I have no time for this condescending attitude that to get the votes of younger people you need to have a leader who has body piercings, and uses the word "like" four times in every sentence and wants to legalize all drugs.

OMOV is in the Party Constitution, which only Convention can change. There do need to be rules established for the Leadership race. That won't happen until sometime early in the new year, perhaps at the same time the interim Leader is confirmed by Provincial Council, based on the Caucus recommendation. I don't think the cutoff for new memberships is in the constitution, and if it isn't then it will be in the rules established for the leadership race. My guess would be two or three months after the Liberals choose their new leader, with a contingency for a snap election.

Perhaps resonate with is a better choice of words than understand.

I think Dix is in his late 30s and looks younger. But there is no evidence that younger voters necessarily vote for younger leaders. Harper is actually quite a bit younger than both Layton and Ignatieff and I don't see this causing the Tories to lead among people under 30 - in fact that is their weakest demographic.

Rob Fleming is pretty uncharismatic, I happen to think he'd be a younger male version of Carole James. Not really an improvement. Some people have mentioned Bruce Ralston, because he's the NDP finance critic. I've never been particularly impressed by him, but I haven't been particularly unimpressed either. He isn't young though, neither is MacDonald. Not that being young is the be all and end all of running.

Some say that Trevana and MacDonald can't possibly run because they were a part of the bakers dozen. I think that's irrelevant, especially since the more right-wing pundits in the province have been trumpting that as if its some sort of test the NDP should live by. In any case MacDonald said he wasn't interested and didn't think he'd be able to build a credible organization in time. I haven't heard much about Trevana declaring any interest. As for other young-ish MLA's like Lana Popam, Spencer Chandra Herbert or Michelle Mungall, I haven't heard much indication that any of them are seriously interested.

I think when it's all said and done, there will be a draft movement to choose Jenny Kwan as the next leader. Now that Carole is gone as leader people who have been sitting on their hands for the past few years are now renewing their BC NDP membership.