Nope, I don't see it - I think narrow Lib or Tory majority; what is the matter with people?
Ok, so latest poll is out in the Free Press.
Quoting partially from the story:
"Meanwhile, the Liberals are making a comeback, jumping into second place with 26 per cent of decided voters compared with 19 per cent for the NDP.
The Green party is a distant fourth, with five per cent of decided voters. Twelve per cent of voters are undecided and five per cent refused to disclose their preference.
The Conservatives, with 48 per cent, have barely budged from the last federal election when the party earned 49 per cent of the vote in Manitoba.
The Conservatives are the preferred party of both men and women, across all age groups, education and income levels. They lead the Liberals in Winnipeg by 11 points and outside of Winnipeg have nearly three in five votes.
Probe vice-president Chris Adams said the Conservatives benefit from a strong rural base and the small-C conservative culture in Manitoba.
The NDP bumped the Liberals to third from second place in 2008, and a year ago, were slightly ahead at 22 points compared with the Liberals' 21.
The NDP gained mid-year while the Liberals flatlined. But in the last six months the NDP has dropped into third, and the Liberals are now in a clear second place, with a six-point lead over the NDP.
The Liberals appear to have regained some of the base they lost in 2008 under the unpopular leadership of Stéphane Dion. They had their worst showing in Manitoba in recent history in that election. The Liberals finished third in the popular vote and lost
But with the recent bump in the provincial polls and Kevin Lamoureux's win in the byelection in Winnipeg North last month, Manitoba has become a silver lining for the Liberals in 2010.
In particular, the Liberals have regained support in Winnipeg. A year ago, the Tories had a 17-point lead in Winnipeg with 43 per cent, versus the NDP's 26 per cent. The Liberals languished in third with 24 per cent.
The latest poll has the Conservatives maintaining their 43 per cent, but the Liberals are up 12 points to 32 per cent, and the NDP is down three points to 21 per cent.
The NDP did not have a good year.Longtime NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis resigned and mounted an unsuccessful campaign for Winnipeg mayor. The NDP lost her seat and has dropped behind the Liberals in Manitoba.
Adams said the NDP was hurt by the gun registry vote, which divided the party. He believes that while most people know the federal and provincial parties are different, the decline of the provincial NDP may also be affecting federal support as well."
So, how it about folks? I am convinced the NDP is about to take a real beating in this next election and think they will end up with at the best 12 - 15 seats after this election. I don't think people give a damn about whether there is justice when it comes to how a party's policies affect people. I also think most people have completely forgotten about the history of the way the Libs always goven. I think this election is going to ultimately revolve around how successful the Libs are scaring people into voting them in and the Tories out. And as for Quebec, forget it. It'll NEVER happen. They will vote Lib, Tory or Bloc untill the cows come home. The NDP is NEVER going to make inwards in Quebec, EVER! Quebec is the best example of how people "cut off their nose to spite their faces". In the best case scenario, the pattern of the Quebec voter simply proves they really aren't all that progressive, and more inward focused. I can't say I blame them, but for better or worse, this is how I feel.
I apologize for being such a pessimist, but I just don't see this going any other way. So I will ask the question. How wrong am I? If I am out to lunch, truly, I wish someone could convince me otherwise. I am very depressed about this, especially given it means we will be stuck with guys like Lamourueux for a while.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Canadian politics have always been depressing. I am used to it.
I agree, acramer. I think narrow to comfortable Tory majority, with the Liberals gaining as well. NDP support maybe increasing in its own strongholds, but not widely elsewhere.
Of course I hope I'm wrong. I hope for a Liberal first, or, at worst, a Tory minority.
I think I will wait till the 3rd week of the election before I write an epitaph again for the NDP. As FAr as I am concerned if they start low its fine, it means when their numbers return it will look like a good news story. Momentum is your friend in an election.
Learn from 1988: don't read too much nationally through the prism of Manitoba numbers.
Good advice from adma, Arthur! Of course you're the one living in Winnipeg, so no wonder you're feeling a little bit blue. So, I say, don't get mad - get even!
By the way, what was your take on Chris Adams' assertion that the Winnipeg North loss was due to the long-gun registry. I thought I followed that campaign pretty closely, but it didn't seem to come up that much in the coverage. Was it a big issue on the doorstep there?
I hate to be blunt Arthur, but it seems to me you are not really paying much attention, or filtering through a local lens the national scene. And I truly say that with the upmost respect. Recent Quebec polls have shown significant gains for the NDP in Quebec. In seat rich Southwestern Ontario the Ontario Liberals are in a steep decline meaning a number of seats are opening up for NDP gains in the 'rust belt' with spill over to the federal scene. More importantly Jack Layton is outpolling the NDP by miles which means the growth potential is large with the NDP starting at or around where it was on election night in 2008. Meanwhile the Conservatives are stuck in a bubble they can't break out of so there are very, very few seats they can increase their count to majority in. Iggy is polling well behind his party which means the more people see of him, the less they like.
The simple reality is that hardly anyone is paying any attention to politics. Polls right now are very meaningless, even more so than usual. In an election campaign people will really see Iggy for the first time and the potential for NDP growth is at a better place than I have mostly seen in my life-time. (I'm in my 60s). The Liberals are having a hard time recruiting high profile candidates and are demoralized like nothing I have seen before. The Cons are likley to lose seats in Quebec and BC.
The next election has huge potential, but if the idiot strategic vote crowd is given room through such pollyannish pesimissim we can virtually assure ourselves of a Conservative majority.
In other words buck up.
Good point Life. The NDP may pick up a few percent from the greens as well. Jack does well in the debates and I think it will be easy to now paint harper into any corner the opposition want to put him into. Harpers base won't leave but come Eday he may very well be sitting on only 30% of the vote. In 10 years the demographics could change significantly. The environment is going to hell in a handbasket and the young people don't view things like their parents do.
If I was Harper I think I would be more worried than anyone other than iggy but he is only there to push the Harper agenda anyway. I don't see Harper as being in the party for too long after losing seast which they will. That is why they are laying the groundwork by saying they don't want an election while riding around announcing spending.
I didn't think the NDP would have another chance to go into an election against someone as weak as Dion. This time its even better for the NDP. The libs have a very rightwing leader that isn't very liked. So cons can move to the libs if they choose, or can sit out. Meanwhile Lib-NDP swing voters can vote how they like because the NDP has a good chance of being in government when the dust settles. No need to vote lib, esp under the Iggy pro war banner. You can have your cake and eat it.
The high exposure of election time will thrust the NDP policy platfrom into everyones living room. Most don't hear about the NDP because we are a lot less relevant outside of elections in the medias mind. Sure you will knee jerk anti union voters staying away, but when you have someone as useless as Iggy at the helm of the libs, you have to be feeling good about Laytons odd on this one. Plus the NDP may pick up 2 or 3 seats in quebec and THAT would be very worrysome for the other parties.
Now I'm not saying we are going to be opposition. But if we get say 44-52 seats or so, even if we don't have the levers of power we start to look a lot more relevant. It will no longer be the horse race its always portrayed as. Give the voters something to vote for. I just hope the NDP stiffins its spine and takes some stands. Don't back down when the media tries to punish you for going against corporate interests-like with the whole death tax fiasco.
Perhaps in an election people will start to wake up to the damage that Harper's party has done to this country and start to pay attention, and to look for alternatives. They may even be in a forgiving mood, and look again to the Liberals, but that's pretty iffy, because the Libs look weaker that they have in a long, long time. The next election might be an exceptionally good one for the NDP and maybe the Greens... but then again, maybe not. Politics is a bit of a crap shoot. People may decide we're doing relatively well and keep Harper at the helm.
Mr. Cramer, with all due respect for your Federal loss in Winnipeg North- What city were in living in during the Winnipeg Municipal Election?? For some of us ,it was brutal!... and spilled into the Federal Election. ...Anyway, Happy New Year ! Winnipeg,MB.
P.S. Have a healthy disrespect for that FreeP Rag.
Hi to all and thanks for your comments. I would say it is far to say I am looking at things affected by what happened here in Winnipeg; I still can't believe it, and I really have no use at all for Lamoureux. That people would acutally vote for that guy is simply mystifying.
Regarding the long gun registry ottawa observer, that struck as "huh?". I never heard that at all over the course of the election. Maybe the polling guys know something I didn't but I don't think that was an issue at all. The Tories ran the lousiest candidate, the weather was cold and the "north end bobas" stayed home, and the local media became the "Kevin Lamoureux: fan club. It was a perfect storm. I was thinking for while it was partially an anti prov govt vote, but I don't know about that. The last prov poll shows the Tories with only a 4 point lead; it was higher at one point then that, my point being that I am not really convinced provicial politics really mattered a lot in Winnipeg North (as an aside, I wouldn't be measuring the curtains yet if I were Hugh McFaydan jus yet). I think the last election in Winnipeg North was about turn-out and a poor Tory candidate. It was a pefect storm, and Lamoureux got lucky.
I will admit, I don't really see the national trends outside of Manitoba all that clearly, and I don't really get Ontario politics much at all. I would welcome any help people might want to offer that would help me get a better view then things east of the Man-Ontario border. I think Boom Boom is right about things being a "crap shoot". And heaven help us if we get that really, really stupid, and I mean stupid, strategic voting thing going again. I will try harder to not freak out so much, but I have to tell you, when a guy like Lamoureux can dupe enough people to win an election to the House, I trully doubt the common sense and wisdom of my fellow citizens.
You folks are great, and I really apppreicate the fact you always seem to be there when the support is needed. Thanks a lot all, and all the best for 2011!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
The thing about why the gun registry looked important to the reporter is simple, even if it has no basis in reality.
The media narrative is that Iggnatieff cleverly drove a wedge into the NDP. Didnt happen. But why let facts get in the way.
According the narraitive this wedge is going to appear in urban areas. So when the Liberals unexpectedly beat the NDP in Winnepeg North, this is obviously a manifestation of that wedge working.
As to the likelihood of Iggy's siren call of so called 'strategic voting' having a serious effect: it has had less and less traction in each election. That wont stop the Liberals from trying. But it is no reason to take it so seriously.
@KenS:
You really hit it on one thing about the last electin; the feeble coverage by the local media. Particularily, the Free Press. Both Lett and Rabson were useless, and obviously spout "common wisdon" analysis. They both frustrate the hell out of me and make me wonder how anyone could possibly think the get something usefull from following the local media.
Rabson did it again by the way when she buried Lamouruex's vote in favor of Bruinooge's "anti-coercion" within a broader article about aboriginal Chief pay. She is pathetic. You are right about the wedge issue aspect of the long gun registry having no effect in Winnipeg North; after reading what you wrote, I got better the pollster's comments. Man those people are stupid!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
The Liberals beat us at our own game of organization in Winnipeg North. Dippers disagree on how excusable [or not] that is- but it happened. And neither for the first or last time.
but it has nothing at all to do with national trends.
Hey Arthur, how are you?
I would repeat the cautions others made about translating polling in particular areas to the national scene. I agree with you that the prospects for the NDP in Manitoba are not good after both the recent civic election and the by-election. I've noticed since I moved here that Winnipeg is not even a real "city," that it has attitudes that, for the most part, are consistent with what you would find in small towns or suburban communities. You tend to either agree with that value set, or you leave Winnipeg. Right now in Winnipeg the Conservatives are obviously the top political party, and I believe we will see the ground shift to reflect that in the next provincial election.
But it is not all doom and gloom in Manitoba. For one, Nikki Ashton is quite solid in her northern Manitoba seat. The area covered by the federal constituency of Selkirk-Interlake is owned provincially by the NDP. And in my hometown of Brandon, the ground is shifting, and the NDP is now becoming the top party of choice in this Tory bastion. It won't be enough to take the seat for the NDP as the party's support is still concentrated in the city, but if that support stays consistent in Brandon, it will probably rub off into the surrounding areas. Even though the local scene is not that good, the general picture is much brighter.
Hi:
Happy New Year! Boy it ha been awhile since I even thought about this thread. I am doing ok, but still feeling down about Winnipeg North.
Thanks for the positive info regarding the Brandon and Interlake area. Do you think there is any chance at all we could pick one of those seats? That would sure make me feel a little better. How does Pat Marting look in Winnipeg Centre? I am thinking it may be close but am hoping he will be ok. What are your thoughts on that? Have insomina, so am up and just saw your post. Thanks for your comments; would be glad to hear what you think.
Hey, all the very best to you and yours as we start this new year. I hope 2011 is full of good health, success and happiness. Cheers!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
In the interm, we could pick up Interlake, although the incumbent won half the vote when the NDP ran Ed Schreyer against him. Perhaps if it was an open seat? Brandon is more a long-term project. It always outpolls the party nationally, so if you have 30% for the NDP combined with a Conservative collapse, it's in play.
As for Pat Martin and Jim Malloway? I'd consider both of them to be vulnerable. Martin has alienated many with some of his more bone-headed remarks. If there is a strong challenge from both the left and the Liberals, it's quite possible that enough disgruntled NDPers would vote left and Martin could come up the middle. Malloway nearly lost to Thomas Steen in the last federal election, and Steen was a terrible candidate. Malloway strikes me as a lightweight, he hasn't really seemed to come up with anything to catch imagination, and is vulnerable to a strong Conservative challenge.
As for the rest of the city? St. Boniface might be another long-term prospect, but it's currently a Liberal-Conservative marginal, and Glover should easily beat former MP Ray Simard. Winnipeg South Centre is Anita Neville's riding. This contains Liberal River Heights, and Osborne Village. Osborne Village will vote to keep the Conservatives from winning, which means Liberal. Kildonan-St. Paul might go NDP eventually. The NDP barely eked out the Liberals here to finish a distant second last go around. Charleswood and Winnpeg South are Conservative-Liberal marginals, and the NDP will not be a factor especially with a push to oust Harper. (There's almost no organization in Winnipeg South, and I'd be surprised if the NDP candidate makes back the deposit.) In the last 30 years, Dauphin only ever went non-Conservative twice. In 1980, the backlash against the provincial government of Sterling Lyon propelled the NDP to a one-term victory, and in 1993 the Reform-PC split propelled the Liberals to a one-term victory. Portage and Provencher are deep in the Manitoba Bible Belt and will not vote NDP any time soon. I really think the next election in Manitoba will be about holding the seats the NDP currently has, even if it wins back Winnipeg North.
Hi:
Well, that sounds extremely gloomy. I thought Martin might be in trouble. He didn't do as well as I thought he should have the last time around, so I am not surprised. Do you think the Libs might run Northcott again? Could he win, and why would a foodbank guy ever run Lib? Have you ever talked to him to get an understanding of where he is coming from? As for East Kildonan-Trancona, well that sounds bad. I really can't imagine the NDP losing the old Railway man vote. Has Winnipeg really changed that much?
How about Winnipeg North. I guess I am asking if you think the NDP may be slipping in Winnipeg? If so, is it long term or short term? What is going on? I don't get how the Libs could possibly come back other then people forget how the Libs screw working people once they get power. What are your thoughts.
This all sounds pretty bad? Do you have feel on likely outcomes right now?
Arthur Cramer,Winnipeg
Portage, Provencher, Brandon, Dauphin: Conservative
Winnipeg South Centre: Liberal
Churchill: NDP
The rest? Ask me closer to the election.
Long term or short term? I don't know. I do know the provincial NDP has alienated many progressive people (genstrike can speak to this topic) and that has implications federally. In Saskatchewan, Link is failing to inspire people four years after the NDP was handed its worst ever showing in the popular vote, and where the NDP used to be a significant player rural Saskatchewan is now firmly in the grip of the Saskatchewan Party. That has no doubt impacted the federal party's chances.
Has Winnipeg changed? All over the place, people are frustrated with established politicians. As party memberships decline, this no doubt affects all parties in all their safe seats, and someone who can inspire people can make an impact. (Ask a Muslim business prof who's name is "Naheed Nenshi" about that.)
Pat Martin, vulnerable? You must be kidding.
Maybe if he had to win an election on Babble.
But he wins by 2 to 1 margins, with the second place party changing from election to election. And I have heard he takes nothing for granted, both as constituency politician and with campaign organization.
Yes, there are no safe seats. But Martin vulnerable enough to say 'wait and see what it looks like'. I think thats just wishful thinking.
And on top of that, re
He didn't do as well as I thought he should have the last time around, so I am not surprised.
If "didn't do as well" means only a plurality rather than a majority, maybe you're getting somewhere; but sheesh, Pat Martin's 49% was more than twice that of his nearest (CPC) opponent, so that'd be splitting hairs.
OTOH, re
Kildonan-St. Paul might go NDP eventually. The NDP barely eked out the Liberals here to finish a distant second last go around.
It wasn't just "barely eked out"; the Liberal candidate withdrew, and their vestigial vote was but a quarter of the NDP's.
Maloway's private member's bill advocating an airline passengers' bill of rights has been a really big deal and story up in Ottawa. The airlines all retained lobbyists to work on it, because if there is one industry MPs are very familiar with (and ALL have opinions on), it's the airline industry (since they are some of its biggest users).
Also, he has distinguished himself as being the single most prolific participant in House of Commons debates. I've heard him at some length on a variety of topics, and he's always well informed.
My guess is that the margin in Transcona last time was less than Bill Blaikie's the times before, because Maloway was a new candidate. Incumbency will have an effect, and his people are known as very good organizers.
I live in Winnipeg. Winnipeg Centre is more an NDP seat than a Pat Martin seat, and I'm confident enough to stand by my assessment. Judy Wasylicia-Leis used to win her seat by about that margin as well, and the NDP failed to hold it.
Malloway served in the provincial NDP for over 20 years without being posted to Cabinet. That says something to me. He has always come across to me as a lightweight and I don't see that he commands nearly the amount of personal respect that Blaikie did.
In a by-election. With no NDP incumbent. With a Liberal candidate that had a well honed and succesful against odds organization tied to him personally.
Not something to generalize from to a general election and an NDP incumbent who is very well organized and has never taken anything for granted.
If you had said something like "things have shifted and Pat Martin cannot take anything for granted" I wouldnt quibble. Pat Martin is iff and vulnerable is another story, even if the two statements draw on the same phenomena.
Mallowat and the riding I know very little about. But the criteria you mentioned in themselves do not amount to much. He strikes you as a lightweight says nothing at all about what the constituents think. Few strong constituency politicians get that way for the national stage reasosns Blaikie did. There are a lot of so called "lightweights" who are pretty unbeatable.
Continually breaking news on the cabinet shuffle. possibly the last before an election.
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2011/01/04/harper-shuffles-cabinet.html
I live in Winnipeg, and I've heard people tell me that he does take the constituency for granted.
You may be right. But I've heard otherwise [granted, it wasnt a source I'd call totally balanced], and I've heard that said elsewhere when it really means more a case of "he doesnt pay enough attention to my pet issues."
Pat Martin is so disliked by the left that I need to know something about the people offering opinions to assess whether they are actually observing something about what constituents think of him, or more expressing that they dont like him.
I have worked for Pat in elections fast. I would say he hasn't exactly ever really been all that friendly to me or give me much time when I have talked with him, but I know you can't really judge MPs like that. It has been my experience, at least for myself, that they don't really give you the time of day when you talk to them. That has been my experience every time; either the problem is me, or that is par for the course. I don't know; I have never had a counter experience so I don't really know.
Is there anyone who actually has enough first hand experience to comment on the observations above? Also, why is Pat hated by the left? I guess I miss a lot of this you know. I don't have "an in" with anyone, so I would't know otherwise.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
Hope this isn't a stupid post.
He is a staunch Zionist, to the point of criticizing members of his own party who showed sympathy for the Palestinians as "loony left."
After the NDP voted in favour of a policy resolution calling for Canadian troops to be home from Afghanistan, he went on to voice support for the mission.
Those are 2 examples I can think of off the top of my head. I'm sure others can come up with more.
Pat Martin and I communicated on the fight against asbestos several times - I enoyed hearing from him, and he was clearly committed to the battle against asbestos (maybe he still is - it's been a year since my last contact with him).
You know, as a Jew, I am a little uncomfortable with this "anti-Zionist" stuff. I am no fan of Israel, don't buy Isreal bonds, etc., and think Israel is close to becoming another South Africa. Still, I get the distinct feeling that there is little tolerance for the Israeli concern over security. I think this is a legitimate one, but certainly there has to be some balance. Especially when it comes to the pro-Israeli side, they really need to come into the 21st century. Still, I do find it really hard to ignore the fact that there is a small underling current of ant-semitism in a lot of the "anti-Zonist", anti-Israeli rhetoric I see on left wing boards.
I can tell you as a Jew, this makes feel a little uncomfortable. I am not trying to point fingers in any way at all, I'm just saying.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg