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And just in case somebody is looking for definitions: a shellacking is not just dropping a couple seats overall. That would be in the range of 'stand still.' Which I do not expect, but would not go saying there is only an outside chance of it.
I was an NDP pessimist until I saw the Liberals running around like chickens with their heads chopped off. Now I believe the NDP actually stands a chance at being competitive with the Liberals.
Ok, I will try hard, honeslty. I am still really down about Winnipeg North; I absolutely can't undestand how anyone could vote for the Lib who won. It absolutely made no sense to me
I apologize to everyone; this really took the wind out of my sails. It was a really bitter loss to take.
artur Cramer, winnipeg
Ok, I will try hard, honeslty. I am still really down about Winnipeg North; I absolutely can't undestand how anyone could vote for the Lib who won. It absolutely made no sense to me
I apologize to everyone; this really took the wind out of my sails. It was a really bitter loss to take.
artur Cramer, winnipeg
I don't see anything at the moment that would precipitate the sort of political tectonic shift that anyone need write home about. Everyone appears to be sticking with the devil they know, because the sad truth of the matter is that the voters are indeed being led around by headless chickens, and they've elected to stay put as a result.
I suspect after the next election the Liberals will be known as "the gang that couldn't shoot straight".
OK lets be honest, even if we lose 5 seats which I doubt, I don't see it as cataclysmic. And the NDP alwasy goes up in elections. Like I mentioned I would rather start lower in the polls and make up the ground in the last 3 weeks. momentum is optics, optics is more important than reality in politics. People think conservatives are fiscally responsible. they aren't but that is the optics.
As long as their isn't a majority in the house, the next session will be a turning point. Either we introduce progressive measures with the libs, or they show their true colours and get wiped off the map. Which is harpers endgame anyway. To me its a win win. Finally start pulling the frame back to the left, or we eliminate the libs and have a head to head battle of canadians vs conservatives.
Remember losing a battle doesn't mean losing the war. I would like to start winning a few, but if the libs implode and we get enough people to shift things left that is much better in the long run. That is why the cons have been so successful, they have taken the long game of teaching people to vote against their own interest
And when they have the opportunity to grab power(and without accountabiliity like a minority government) the raze the foundation we laid so many years ago and start wrecking things with abbandon. Knowing it will take years more till they are allowed at the levers of power. Sadly the libs are complicite in this. Enabling the cons to destroy the fabric and then doing so themselves with a smiling face playing good con bad con. Its weird that cons hate liberals so much because they are a lot closer to each other than we are to either.
Just to be clear Arthur I am not suggesting major gains. I just don't see anything that suggests major losses - which is what I take to be a 'schellacking'. While the potential is there for some big gains when voters finally look at Ignatieff and turn down their thumbs, my real expectation is that the NDP will lose some heartbreaking seats and pick up some real surprises. I am expecting to see some real uptick in Southwestern Ontario - maybe not wins, but the stage set for them in the near future. The NDP might lose some seats in Manitoba on the back of a long in the tooth provincial government, but may just finally see Nettie Weibe in the House as a balancer. So the House will likely look a lot like it currently does, although with a changed seating arrangement. Having once been an adversary of the NDP I have to honestly say they look in better shape to mount and more importantly sustain a campaign than I have ever seen them before. So the potentiality is there for a wide range of results as campaigns take on a life of their own- and rarely do they turn out as expected, but the NDP is simply not sitting at some pre-determined schellacking level.
I am sure that your career did not teach you to turn tail, run, and give up at the first set back by the way -so again - buck up.
I think it's important not to confuse the NDP's unpopularity in Manitoba with the NDP's popularity in the rest of Canada. After 11 years in power provincially, it should come as no surprise that the NDP's popularity, both provincially and federally, is ebbing in Manitoba.
But it makes no sense to extrapolate the NDP's relatively poor showing in Manitoba and transpose it onto the rest of Canada. Outside of Manitoba, and to a lesser extent Nova Scotia, the federal NDP does not have provincial NDP governments holding down its popularity.
For awhile now polls have shown that the NDP is in trouble in Manitoba, and events on the ground seem to be bearing the poll predictions out. Over the years polls have proven to have a good track record predicting election results. It's fair to say that after well over a decade in power the NDP's reign in Manitoba is in jeaporady.
But the federal scene is much different then Manitoba's. Manitoba makes up less then 4% of Canada's population. So it's important to remember that federal polls show the NDP is holding its own. It's also important to remember that once a federal election is called, the NDP's record under Layton shows that the party will likely gain some ground during the campaign.
That's a rather amazing statement. If true, what exactly does that say about the Manitoba NDP?
that it is typical of almost every governing party in the history of Canada with the exception of the single party state of Alberta and post-war Ontario to the 80s.
There is nothing "the matter with people". Life evolves as it always does and individuals determine their political alliegiance according to personal needs and entitlements not the sweeping adolescent ideologies of those who have not yet taken up the full responsibilities involved in life.
The Ontario experience was a series of reinventions by the Tories, all of which worked. They would freak out every decade that they were going to lose and modified the party to avoid that. Like rolling higher than 7 8 straight times. Unlikely, but no freakishly so. Note that particularly in the early years of this the provincial Liberals were substantially to the right of the Tories.
Alberta is something else. Perhaps an Albertan could explain that.
Have faith and patience, Arthur!
For every riding that the NDP might have problems holding onto (Edmonton-Strathcona, Sudbury, Burnaby-Douglas), I can name you four ridings that the NDP will have an excellent chance at winning next election:
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl, South Shore-St. Margaret's, Gatineau, Essex, Kenora, Winnipeg North, Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Edmonton East, Surrey North, Vancouver Island North, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.
And these don't include ridings where the NDP has done well in the past, or have great candidates that are running high-level campaigns:
Central Nova, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Beaches-East York, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Oshawa, Brant, Huron-Bruce, Regina-Qu'appelle, Edmonton Centre, Kamloops, Nunavut.
And given the NDP's steady gain in support around Montreal, it's always possible that ridings like Westmount-Ville Marie, or Jeanne Le Ber could surprise on election night.
Remember, it took Ed Broadbent 10 years to fight his fourth election as NDP leader, and the results in 1988 showed that Canadians needed time to get to know Ed better before they'd vote NDP in record numbers, which is exactly what I see happening with Jack Layton as he prepares to lead the NDP into his fourth election as leader, with a larger caucus going into the election than the NDP had under Broadbent in 1988.
Don't write them off just yet!
Hi LTU:
Well, I guess you are right, I know I have to buck-up, but it is tough to face the idea of no New Dem Winnipeg North MP. I know I have said this so many times I must sound just so immature, but I really can't stand the Lib elected. I think the guy is an opportunist, and when he voted in support of Bruinooge's bill, it made me feel even worse. I think this says a lot about the guy, and I really resent his masquerading as a "progressive". That is so laughable. And on top of everything else, the local media here is being the narrative he is trying to create about who he is; it is nauseating.
There have been a lot of observations about the fact the NDP is long in the tooth here in Manitoba. I think that is really having an effect federally, but I am not sure to what degree this will acually affect the outcome of things at the next Fed election. On the other hand, I am not convinced the New Dems are going to lose provincially. It is just too early to say. A lot will depend on how well the New Dems can expose McFaydan for what he is on the one hand, and frankly, how much people really care, on the other.
Roscoe, ouch! "Not the sweeping adolescent ideologies of those who have not yet taken up the full responsibilities involved in life". I don't know what you mean honestly. I don't feel the need to regret having an ideological bias that drives my view. As a matter of fact I would argue it shows at least a willingness to accept responsiblity for what you think and backing with action your views. I wouldn't mind knowing a little more about what you are trying to say. I truly don't get what you mean.
As for the rest above, I have to admit, it all makes me feel a little better. It sounds that outside of my own province, there is some real potential this time for New Dem breakthroughs. That would be very satisfying after watching the New Dems fortunes ebb and flow. I always thought Ed Broadbent deserved a better fate then being so popular and not becoming at least the leader of opposition. It would be great to see the New Dems do better under Jack. I voted for Blakie for leader; but Jack has done well. I am still very biased towards Blakie; he worked with my dad when my dad was the Superintendent of the Transcona-Springfield School Division many, many years ago. They got along well, and my dad thought very highly of him.
You know, I wish a lot of the old time CCFers/New Dems could be around now to see how things stand. I know, keep working and stay at it.
Ok, enough rambling. Cheers eveyone!
Arthur Cramer, Winniipeg
Hi David!
Saw you comment after posting above. Thanks above. Guess I have been having trouble seeing the big picture.
Thanks for the encouragement.
Again, my apologies everyone.
Cheers!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Well Arthur we had a Liberal here in Huron-Bruce that was to the right of the Coonservatives, but who convinced progressive voters to continue to strategically vote for him so I know how that feels.
LTU:
You do; it shows you really do "put your money where you mouth is". I guess I should stop whining. Sorry about that.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Hey my parents got Jeff Watson a conservative running in the county who lives in the city working at Chrysler and a member of the CAW...I will believe a lot more than I use to. He couldn't run in windsor because he wasn't well liked by most people in the city or form his work, but was good enough for some of the rednecks in the county. They wanted change...good job A Holes. I would take Sue Whelan again over this useless cow dropping. I like the boot campaign they ran. they dropped a couple of hundred pairs of boots from all the people laid off in our region while he has done NOTHING in his 6 years in government...unless you consider mailing 10 percenters as doing something.
But, thorin, now they can get Taras Natyshak!
Remember, too: the NDP's ebb in Manitoba is nowhere near 1988 Pawley-collapse levels. And re Winnipeg North, remember once again: "the Liberal candidate, stupid". I'm sorry, but the Babbleworld myopia t/w the "unlikeable" Lamoureux is a match for the Babbleworld myopia t/w the "unlikeable" Pat Martin.
Besides, when it comes to the national scene where it counts--members in Commons--the Manitoba NDP caucus is but 3, down from 4. Less than 10% of the national total. If only that's wiped out, the party still has well over 30 seats, more than at anytime other than 1988...
OO I have met Taras and he is a comely man, but I am not sure on him. My parents will vote NDP again, but it all depends on if Sue Whelan is going to run again or not. Unless we see a front runner the cons will split the non con vote to squeal up the middle AGAIN.
Thorin, unless you've heard something more recent, Susan Whelan ruled out running again federally, and has taken a job with the Ontario Cancer Society. The Liberals nominated Kingville Mayor Nelson Santos last year, but he still ran for reelection municipally this past November. Do you have anything more recent to go on?
No ouch intended, Arthur. There is nothing wrong with "sweeping adolescent ideologies". What I was trying to convey is that individuals who have been beaten up by life's experiences in general have a more self-centered and less altruistic attitude toward governance than those who have not yet experienced the full weight of life's burdens.
They don't want to hear about global warming, eradication of malaria, the fight against aids or the injustice of racism. They want to know how much the child tax credit, CPP, tax policy, infrastructure grants will benefit them personally.
In order to attract these individuals, the NDP needs to stop playing political games with the other parties and concentrate on a solid platform of responsible governance and affordable social benefits. The accepted ploy of holding back party positions until an election for fear of policy theft by others just doesn't cut it in attracting voters from outside the NDP core.
David refers to 1988. It is also worth remembering that in 1988 - when the NDP got its highest seat total ever - the party actually LOST seats in Manitoba - INCLUDING Winnipeg North.
Unionist, the fact that a government starts eroding support after a while is the inevitable fate of being the government. Allan Blakeney used to say that a new government is like a hiker at the bottom of a mountain holding an empty backpack. Every few hundred feet up the mountain, the hiker adds a stone to his pack. After a while, it starts to weigh him down.
Perhaps support for provincial governments in Quebec never erodes over time . . .
OO not much. I had heard about Santos. There are a lot Italians in the leamington area and I know he would have a lot of their support because they are more affluent than their windsor counterparts. That would be a threat because of name recognition. Then it comes down to a series of people who like to vote on single issues. Hate to say this but as useless as Jeff Watson is. I have a sneaky suspicion he will win, probably not much more than say 1000 votes and a lot closer than the 5,000 lead he has last time, but enough to retain his seat.
The county people I work with ( and most people who read the lousy extreme right windsor star) don't pay nearly enough attention to politics. They are busy with the farm when they get home and many don't bother with TV just pick up a few facts from our severly biased paper. Sure some know better, but the star makes it out that the NDP will come into their home and send their kid to commie brainwashing camp while stealing their guns and then taxing them into oblivion.
Most think I make stuff up about what harper does on a daily basis. They simply refuse to see him as anything other than some guy like them down at the timmies...this applies to some people in windsor as well, but the sentiment is much stronger in the county. We use to have a very good progressive counciller in lakeshore whos name escapes me. It might be a Tom(not bain) I remember him pulling a procedural motion on trying to get something through essex council that had to do with our fight against the destruction of marshfield woods. A woodlot they wanted to turn into a golf course. We have very little forest left in the area(less than 3 percent http://www.erca.org/downloads/natural_areas_map.pdf) ANd it was a significant wetlands. While the essex mayor a PC candidate(Joan Flood) a few times, was out of the room he called for a vote and won. It was a little sneaky but we were really up a creek against a developer breaking rules and enviro laws that the essex mayor said didn't matter....He would have been a very good candidate, but is a little long in the tooth these days.
I maintain that the problem isn't that Harper was elected, but that there has been enough support to make that vialbe in the first place. If people are really that ignorant about politics in this country, that in itself is a serious problem. That needs to be addressed, voting the Conservatives out in this context is simply not enough.
I don't think people are that ignorant about politics. Or: whatever they are, 'they' have been since long before we got this government, and before even the decades long slowly accumulating gains of the Right. So the point of complaining about what you call ignorance is what now?
But I have a question about meaning that comes before that beef. What does the last sentence mean? "Voting the Conservatives out is not enough?"
Though if it's of any compensation, Leamington proper is next door in Chatham-Kent Essex.
A spring election is looming and Canadians are anxious for change. Harper promises more of the same but wait deeper cuts and bigger tax breaks for the richest in the land. British Columbians are living the fairy tell, as little men work all day and never get ahead. What about Harper's HST to get things going in the right direction in two of the major cities where jobs are on the down and out. What could have went wrong? Its always nice to see someone who dosen't have much taking the last bit of change out of their pocket to help the filthy rich out.
How well informed are Canadians? Anyone got any polls on the subject?