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Vanstardam: Ghoris claimed Davies won by roughly 2000 votes. It was actually roughly 3000 votes.
Ghoris said that the Libs won in 2004 by about 5000 votes. It was actually 1350 votes.
That's not "quibbling" - that's correcting some seriously incorrect numbers.
Ghoris did, however, have the EXACT NDP numbers in 2004, 2006 and 2008 - suggesting that his "roughening" of the numbers was deliberately deceptive. Funny how his sloppy errors were consistently to the slant that Kingsway is actually closer than it is.
Similarly, Greg Morrow above puts Kingsway in a "Leaning" category and uses the metric of being <5%. When Kingsway was won in 2008 with GREATER than 5% (6.1%, to be precise) - and with the benefit of incumbency and great representation by Davies likley INCREASING this even more above 5%, how can that be justified?
My point is simply this: all seats are in play, and have various degress of vulnerability. To the extent that numbers are quoted, however, no valid prognostications can be made that are based on incorrect numbers.
Worse, it is dangerous and misleading to others to make predictive statements when the numbers used as "support" are wrong.
That's not "quibbling" - that's being accurate.
Ghoris, you are playing pure sophistry.
I never said that Kingsway is "safe as houses". Your attempt to strawman my argument is further evidence of your attempt to manipulate.
Your pro- forma attempt to apologize and to minimize your gross error in the 2004 numbers is also revealing.
Here's where I agree with you.
Kingsway will be a hard-fought battle. The Con-Lib spiit will play an important role. Like all NDP seats, Davies will have to work hard.
I predict Davies will increase his vote from 16,000 to the 18,000 range. I predict the Liberal vote will decrease from 2008 to around 11,000 (from 13,000). I predict the Cons will increase from 12,000 to the 14,000 range.
But in the end, it will be a solid and increased hold for the NDP in vancouver Kingsway.
ps I also believe the HST will play a large role in this. Kingsway is a riding almost entirely of small businesses, many of which are restaurants that have been hammered by the HST. The federal Cons and Libs started the HST and they will pay a price. It is naive beyond belief to believe they won't...
Well, I think you and I actually agree, then.
I'm curious as to why you think the Cons will leapfrog the Libs. I see it as a possibility, but what do you think would be the deciding factor to prompt such a shift?
Good point, but do you think that people necessarily associate the Conservatives with the HST? Isn't it more associated with the provincial Libs (and thus more likely to reflect badly on their federal cousins)?
How can Kingsway be in the < 5 pt category when they won by 6.1% last time? Because as of *right now* (and this will change as the polls change), adjusting for ballot box shifts, the NDP is running 3.5 pts down in BC (22.6% vs 26.1% in 2008). That's based on a running average of all the regional data. The Liberals are actually up 1.3 pts as of right now. That's a shift of 4.8 points. If Kingsway follows the pattern in BC (and it may or may not), this suggests that the 6.1 pt advantage last time may only be 1.3 pts right now, hence why it is in the 'leaning' (< 5 pt) category. Davies incumbency might give him a bump of a couple pts, so it probably "leans" NDP... but it is by no means a safe NDP seat.
Ghoris: The Cons will pass the Libs becasue they have a stronger national leader, a better campaign and a socially conservative message tailored to the ethic communities, which dominate Kingsway.
The HST will hurt the Cons and the Libs - they both voted for it federally. I cannot predict who will be hurt more, although you are probably right it will be the Libs, as they share the same name as the provincial party who is more closely maligned.
Greg Morrow: the last Nanos poll had the numbers in BC at Cons (40), NDP (30) and Libs (24). The number you are using is based on the Ipsos Reid poll that has been universally panned....
The Libs core support in BC is within the City of Vancouver and neigbouring environs of Richmond and the North Shore. Prior to 2008, over the previous 5 elections the Libs garnered 26% - 27% on avg. in BC. The 2008 dynamic changed with Dion, who no one could understand, and his "Green Shift", which was the carbon tax on steriods when the anti-carbon tax campaign was all the rage in BC.
The Libs suffered as a result and garnered a record 25-year low of 19% in BC in 2008. Previous Lib voters switched to the Cons and the blue Con wave rolled into the City of Vancouver almost knocking off Dosanjh in Vancouver South in 2008.
I suspect that the Lib vote will inch back up this time in BC to at least the low 20's and if that's the case it will impact Vancouver Kingsway. Whether the Libs will win V-K is another matter.... the Chinese Canadian vote and Yuan also comes into play - again late campaign polling in BC should give us a definitive clue. Davies has the incumbency advantage however.
Look, you do realize that I hope you're right on both accounts, don't you? The fact of the matter is though, despite me cheering for the Orange team in my heart, I'm not going to actually let my head get clouded by hopes and wishes. If I was going to do that I'd predict the NDP wins something in the order of 160 seats and I'd use sophistry to convince everyone how it's likely to happen.
Fun quote, "Shit happens." The technical description of this quote is that unpleasant and surprising events can occur. This is especially true during election time.
It looks like Saint John will be the dark horse riding after all as the Liberals have nominated a strong candidate there. This makes a three-way race not just possible, but likely. The NDP hasn't nominated all its candidates in NB so far, but its "historically" second best riding is still open (Madawaska-Restigouche) as is the riding (Miramichi) where former provincial leader Roger Duguay lives. link
More good news for the NDP, Liberal Raymonde Folco has quit as MP in Laval-Les-Îles, Thomas Mulcair's old provincial riding, so this seat could morph to a four-way race (especially given how abysmal the Liberal polling numbers are in Québec right now). Anyone know anything interesting about François Pilon? Furthermore, Derek Lee has quit in Scarborough-Rouge River...Canada's most diverse riding, where the Tamil community has not been happy with the Liberals.
York South — Weston has some decent prospects. I'm now an irredeemable cheerleader for my adopted riding.
I live in Vancouver Kingsway and my instinct says that Don Davies is going nowhere. I haven't seen a single Liberal sign, pamplet or doorknocker yet, and my neighbourhood is decked out in orange.
Also, closing for length. Start a new one if you like!