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I think what the NDP would gain on the swings(Quebec) with Quebec issues they would lose on the roundabouts(the west).
Better for the NDP to focus on Harper's mediocre economic recovery compared to 17 other rich countries, broken promises for transparency and accountability in government, and now the Tories' contempt of Canadian Parliament. Perhaps it's Harper's rope-a-dope, but that is effective opposition's decision to make. Personally I think it's just political conservatives being conservatives in Ottawa. They really do think they are above having to abide by colonial administrative law.
Constitutional wrangling is what the old line parties do in years in between elections when they have no real Canadian economic agenda, or when they are not conspiring to sell us down the Mississippi River to rich Americans. They know how to put Canadians to sleep and make some true majority of Canadians forget that we even have a federal government in Ottawa. They are very good at that game.
Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.
Actually, Jean Landry was the Conservative candidate, not PC. And he received 1% as an Independent candidate in the same riding in 2008, which doesn't indicate that he has a large personal following.
The last provincial election was the first time that the PQ was able to advance its seat counts without discussing the twin issues of sovereignty/referendums. Unlike the 2 prior elections (3 if you recall that in 1998 the Liberals had more popular support than the PQ) where the PQ shouted about sovereignty from the roof tops and lost seats both times.
Segma poll in Gatineau & Hull-Aylmer:
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-droit/actualites/gatineau-outaouais/201103/21/01-4381722-le-bloc-passe-devant-a-gatineau.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_en-manchette_572_section_POS1
Landry is a PC. He ran as one in 2000 and says in the interview @ the link above that he has always been a PC not a Conservative, and that there is a big difference between the two.
The NPD continues to get irregular but positive coverage in the Québec press. Here is Mulcair pushing hard on the issue of economic development of Northern Québec. It seems like the NPD candidate in Manicouagan is proposing something similar to the Columbia Basin Trust (created by the BC NDP) to spur economic development in his region.
ETA: Mulcair raises expectations in Jonquiere-Alma: "I'm sure he [the NDP candidate, a long time unionist] will win." "He knows everyone"
OK, but surely there's a bigger difference between NDP and PC than there is between PC and CPC.
Not very promising. I had heard the Lib candidate was quite weak - too bad to hear he is well ahead of Francoise Boivin.
More bullsh*t from the statistically-ignorant media: there's a 6.5% margin of error for f*ck sake!
They should not even be allowed to say the BQ is in the lead - the BQ is statistically tied with the Liberals!
THat Segma poll was done two weeks ago before the election was even called and before all parties had candidates. They did not recite the names of the local candidates either - just party names.
Any word on how Jack did on Tout Le Monde En Parle last night?
I heard he did really well - but here a youtube of him on the show - judge for yourself.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvY8804AKv0
Thanks Stockholm. I found Layton kind of boring and he struggled with the back & forth in French. His French talking points appeared less rehearsed and as a result, at times, his responses lacked the well-roundedness and punch that they often have in English. That being said, his French is much better than Harper and Ignatieff's. His French has also improved since 2008 and for that he deserves some credit. Even so, he's now challenging Duceppe so I couldn't help thinking (while watching him) who a francophone Quebecker would prefer representing them, an anglophone former Quebecker with passable French and a better-than-average accent, or a person from chez eux that can really speak and keep up with francophones in their native language. Canadian francophones tend to be much more forgiving of anglophone leaders' French than anglophones are of francophone leader's English, but I still have that doubt.
I think what Layton can claim coming out of that appearance is that he did well for a Québec anglophone of his generation, particularly one that has made his career in Toronto. He also came across as serious, not funny, which is a good thing in a political leader. He also got some air time for some of his points and ideas, and generally speaking the hosts were quite kind to him. If Mulcair ever became leader, it would be interesting to see how he would perform in one of these settings. His French is certainly up to the task, but does he have the same warmth or sympathetic character as Layton?
I think Jack has a good line to use in Quebec. The BQ is just there to OPPOSE Harper. The NDP wants to REPLACE him.
Hey Boom Boom, it sounds like not only is Randy Jones NOT the Liberal candidate in Manicouagan, but the Liberal candidate is an alleged racist that was a spokesperson for the Association for the Rights of Whites.
ETA: Maybe I should remove alleged. This sounds pretty serious.
Yuck...
The candidate's name no longer appears on the PLC's candidate list [in French].
Wow. The Liberals have gone two elections in a row now with seemingly racist anti-FN candidates.
I'm hoping Boom Boom is not answering you because he's too busy out working for Jonathan Genest-Jourdain up in Manicouagan! ;-)
We'll get your vote in your home riding, yet, Boom Boom !
Three QC non-incumbent seats where I expect the NDP to be more competitive in 2010 than 2008:
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval-les-Iles, Point-de-l'Île
I don't know if this is a typo (e.g. meant to write Abitibi-Baie James...), I suspect it is, but in this article in Le Soleil, it says Mulcair has high hopes for the NPD to win in Manicouagan. The NPD is running an FN candidate there and the Liberal candidate just got dropped (see above) for his view on FNs. Only 14% of the population is FN (h/t punditsguide.ca) so an "FN vote" is not going to make or break any one candidate.
According to the translation of the article, he's also "guaranteed" a win in Jonquiere.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-federales/201104/06/01-4387282-sondage-angus-reid-gesca-le-npd-bon-deuxieme-au-quebec.php
There are letters to the editor attacking the NPD candidate in Jonquiere-Alma, so at least some people must think he (Claude Patry) has a chance.
Beauport-Limoilou NDP candidate is all bravado link
"The aspiring NDP MP Raymond Côté is confident he can pull [the win] off"
and a much more modest Robin Aubin in Trois-Rivieres gives his spin on the poll results and says he hopes to see,
Mulcair in the Mauricie again before the end of the campaign link
Beauport-Limoilou is a potential 4-way race in a seat weakly held by Conservative MP Sylvie Boucher,
NDP received its provincial average score of 12%, it's best result for the Québec region, here
Trois-Rivieres is a potential 4-way race in a seat held by BQ MP Paule Brunelle
NDP scored well below its provincial average, with a score of 9% here, then again Mulcair is "guaranteeing" the NPD will win Jonquiere-Alma where it received less than 5% of the vote in 2008
Its hard to look at the results of the last election in a riding as any guide to what will happen this time if in the last election there was no campaign whatsoever.
I heard him on TV recently talking up Claude Patry. Remarkable.
"I've never seen such a natural," Mulcair said of Patry." "He is a pillar for us in the region."
Anyone know how real this is?
Claude Patry sounds like the next Yvon Godin. Anyone that can dredge up some video or audio of the purported giant-killer will have my gratitude.
ETA: Here is a teaser
From the comments:
«[...] moi je suis comme un pitbull, je mords le bas de culottes et
je ne lâche pas», déclare Claude Patry.
Très bon citation
Translation: "me, I'm like a pitbull, I bite the bottom the of pants and I don't let go" declares Claude Patry. Very good quote.
and
Une alternative tres intéressant étant donner que JP Blackburn--ne fait rien et croit que tout est gagné pour lui
Translation: "A very interesting alternative given that JP Blackburn -- does nothing and thinks that everthing's a done deal for him"
Is this it?
If google is any indication, Claude Patry's nomination has created a firestorm, particularly in the local papers. This could get exciting.
ETA: And here's the infamous list of target ridings,
Patry + Mulcair + Gatineau (l’ancienne libérale Françoise Boivin), Hull-Aylmer (Nycole Turmel, l’ancienne présidente de l’Alliance de la fonction publique), Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (le leader autochtone bien connu Roméo Saganash) et Rosemont-La Petite Patrie (Alexandre Boulerice)
Claude reigns!
i thought Anne-Legace Dowson was going to run again in Westmount-Ville Marie...she was quite active on FB in terms of recruiting "friends" a few months ago.