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NDP campaign in Toronto
April 14, 2011 - 4:00pm
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It seems that Olivia Chow is in a battle with Christine Innes (though I think Olivia should prevail), and "Nash and Cash" are also campaigns to watch.
Cash has an uphill battle against the Liberal (Mario Silva). Cash is pretty white hipster urbanista but he's been campaigning for like 2 years now. He has oddly decided to engage the provincial Liberals (as if they are the same party as the feds) around the electric train debate in his campaign literature.
Cash is a good candidate, but I would give the edge to Silva as well. One thing that should help Cash though is that the Green vote is likely to shrink significantly, but Peter Ferreira might have had more appeal among Portuguese voters than Cash will.
I'd love it if he did given that Silva is a member of the anti-Palestine committee.
So who do you think will win in the Bob Rae versus Susan Wallace contest?
lmao, until I cry.
I think the revitalization of the NDP riding association under Cathy Crowe, and a likely drop in the Green vote could bring the NDP back to...20% or so!
I think it's a measure of how confident Rae is that he can go poking his nose into ridings where the Liberals tanked in 2008 (e.g. Saskatoon–Rosetown–Biggar) purely to stir up trouble for the NDP. The last Bob Rae Fan Club chapter is still alive and well in Toronto Centre. He's got the seat as long as he wants it, sadly.
The bigger the likely win, the more likely it is that candidates will swan off to distant horizons. The closer the race, the suddenly more interested they get in going to debates, talking to local media, and so forth. Murray got his back scratched in 2010; he'll return the favour here.
It always amazes me the popularity of the Liberals in Ontario and also the way in which Ontarians don't seem to know or even remotely care about the politics of Canadians in other regions of the country (except for maybe ocassionally Québec).
You're right Lord P.
I need a drink.
I would be remiss if I didn't toot my horn for Mike Sullivan in York South–Weston. While it's not as close as Nash's race, the 28% Sullivan got last time made it one of the better-performing non-incumbent ridings. Tonks has been phoning it in for years, and votes down anything approaching progressive. He broke with most of his party on Bill C-389 (which continues his dislike for any kind of queer rights), and voted against Gerard Kennedy's war resisters bill. Given that Kennedy is a constituent of Tonks's, that act may explain this:
mdsullivan Mike Sullivan
Something's missing at Gerard Kennedy's house...he does live in York South Weston, doesn't he? http://yfrog.com/h0qswcaj
(A sign popped up afterwards).
I am hoping that a very active Sullivan campaign will punish Tonks's taking the riding for granted. We'll need the Tories to play the useful idiot role, though, for Mike to prevail.
Weighing the Condo Factor in Trinity-Spadina
That's a great case for a PR system, LP. It just shows that the feudal riding system and talk of regional interests is less important in a time when people move around and are well connected to trans-territorial communities.
It's also a great example of Toronto's fucked up development that is focused solely on building homes for rich people.
LP - "I think the revitalization of the NDP riding association under Cathy Crowe, and a likely drop in the Green vote could bring the NDP back to...20% or so!"
Cathy Crowe was a terrific candidate in the provincial by-election and deserved the support she received. The provincial Greens had abandoned the local provincial riding but the federal riding association hasn't. Ellen Michelson is a good candidate and has been working regularly in the riding. A drop in the Green vote (should that happen) is more likely to shift to the liberals rather than the ndp. I don't see the vote for Ellen dropping below 10%. The green vote pretty well doubled in the general election from the 2008 by-election as did the ndp vote. The green support has been pretty solid mainly due to the respect many had for Chris Tindal and then for Ellen Michelson as individual candidates.
Not to mention one can feel absolutely free to vote one's conscience, as Rae is a shoo-in.
While I plan to vote for Olivia, I just looked into the Green candidate in Trinity-Spadina, U of T philosophy professor Rachel Barney. She sounds like a good candidate.
Yes Rachel is a good candidate and very capable of holding onto the 9% the campaign team achieved in 2008 and probably will crack the 10%. I'm not sure Christine Innis has what it takes to defeat Olivia yet but it will remain close. They both lost 5% of the vote share last time but even another drop in general support is unlikely to affect their campaigns in a serious manner. The interesting vote to watch will be the conservative vote and whether it maintains the 2008 increase. In the same manner you point out above LP, voters here can also vote their conscience because the conservatives are not a factor.
If one is concerned about stopping Harper in Trinity-Spadina, yes, people have no obligation to vote strategically. I would however take Olivia Chow over the Ianno-Innes machine, no question. Innes has tons of signs up (especially big signs) but it seems that the machine isn't once was - they did all they could for Sean McCormick in Ward 19 in the municipal election and he came a very poor third.
I agree that the machine is not what it used to be and I suppose that should be surprising since it is still Ianno's machine. Trinity-Spadina is a shifting community and I think there is more losses here for the liberals and ndp if they don't shift their focus and style of campaigning.
More talk of condo values and the latest iPad should do the trick.
Trinity-Spadina is likely to be broken up in the next redistribution.
The Conservatives seem to be doing better in Toronto than they have previously and that could be a good thing for New Democrats.
Doug - "The Conservatives seem to be doing better in Toronto than they have previously and that could be a good thing for New Democrats."
That depends on how much of that conservative vote is new voters who are conservative supporters or disenchanted liberals who aren't ready to go back to the liberals. I think Ignatieff has failed to convince many people that the liberals are able to return to their old power status. One thing my neighbours told me in the last election was that many of the older generation won't vote other than traditional liberal or ndp but that a large number of those older voters have left or will be leaving soon from the riding. Younger generation voters aren't adhering to their parents voting choice. Where that vote goes is uncertain. The question still remains as to which party can shift their focus in elections and between elections to influence the new voters and younger generation voters in the community.
My impression is that the Greens essentially have no campaign at all in Trinity-Spadina. I've seen literally two signs in the whole riding and have received nothing from them. I think they peaked in 2008 at 9% when they were getting a vast amount of publicity and when they seemed to be running an active campaign. This time, their national numbers are collapsing, environmental issues are off the radar screen and i expect that their vote will retreat to the 5% level they had in '04 and '06 - if not lower.
Not seeing nearly the Green presence in terms of signage either. I've seen more Tory signs.
If the next government has a two-year term (see 1985), the next election will be under the present boundaries.
Where the Cons are doing better in Toronto, it definitely does not assist the NDP, at least not directly in those ridings, one of which is mine.
One side of the riding has blue signs in force, in the other, red. That's Dryden's York Centre, and I guess in Volpe's Eglinton-Lawrence it is similar. Weakening Liberals in financially more comfortable central Toronto, it's hard to see even how that can contribute to NDP increase nationally, except that this accelerates the demise of the Liberals by maybe toppling some in their last bastion.
This is the sort of messaging that makes many of us so critical of "strategic voting"- Vote your conscience sees to be code for doing your god given duty- Liberals to vote for Liberals and-Greens to vote for Greens. freeing yourself from the sin of voting NDP, a sin that can only be forgiven if done to prevent the greater evil, a Conservative winning.
I now understand that if I think the most important issue in the election is that I think Elizabeth May deserves more publicity - I'm supposed to vote Green. So who do I vote for if I'm actually concerned about environmental issues?
DV: I'm pretty sure Eglinton-Lawrence will stay Liberal and the Tories will be shut of the 416 again. I don't see why Israel is supposed to be more of a successful wedge issue this year than it was in 2008.
Stockholm: I know electoral reform activists who are voting Green as a protest against her exclusion and the FPTP system. But i think their impact will be minimal.
And they are likely Greens anyway. We have some Greens and some Liberals in Fair Vote Canada, and even Hugh Segal and a few other democratic conservatives. Non-partisan electoral reformers would be more likely to vote NDP as a vote for proportional representation.
Unless they vote for Carolyn Bennett to reward her for being a pro-PR Liberal, or vote Liberal in Don Valley West, Eglinton—Lawrence or York Centre to stop a Conservative win (most electoral reformers don't like strategic voting but will do it if absolutely necessary).