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NDP's Quebec strategy getting noticed in the media II
April 13, 2011 - 9:14pm
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Continued from here.
From here:
I don't understand. You want me to vote for him twice? You're new around here, aren't you?
Painful thought, eh Unionist!
Although perhaps Anonymouse was reflecting on Frank Hanley, a former Montreal City Councillor from Point St Charles, who at election time who would gather his supporters together before the vote and instruct them to go out and vote, and to vote often.
Sorry, Anonymouse, didn't mean to be snarky, but I voted and campaigned for Mulcair both times he ran (2007 byelection and 2008 general election), had a falling out when he failed to answer my plea to get the NDP out of the CPCCA and then launched an over-the-top attack on Libby Davies last summer - but we've kissed and made up. As for Layton walking on water, the spring thaw is coming very soon around here, so he'll have to hurry.
Mulcair thinks NPD could elect 6-12 MPs in Quebec
At the beginning of the campaign he said six. Article's title roughly reads "Mulcair predicts more than 10 NPD MPs," although I don't see where he "predicts" this.
Also, I was wrong...there doesn't seem to be anything about Layton going to Quebec City, just spending today in Montreal. Afterwards I believe he is headed to Nfld.
NPD has a new French ad
Layton is spending Thursday and Friday in Montreal, then Nfld & PEI and will be in Val d'Or, QC on Monday. Layton has also seen a major bump in media coverage in QC since the French debate. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack in either the Saguenay or Capital region before the campaign closes out.
This *may* be reminding me of the Harper Conservatives coming out of nowhere in Quebec in 2006...
When Quebec voters change their voting habits, it usually happens in huge waves...
1958 - 50 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 9 in 1957
1962 - 26 Social Credit M.P.s elected after none in 1958
1984 - 58 Progressive Conservatives M.P.s elected after just 1 in 1980
1993 - 54 Bloc Quebecois M.P.s in their first election.
Has the time come for another seismic shift in the Quebec electorate?
The best poll for the NDP so far had them at a 10% gap with the BQ (ARS: BQ 34%, NDP 24%). I don't think things get interesting for the NDP until any gap with the BQ narrows much more than that, given how evenly spread out the NPD vote is.
The one for Forum Research had the BQ at 27%, both the NDP & Liberals were tied 4% back at 23%
English commentators complimenting Layton's Quebec debate performance
Recently the Montreal Gazette (anglo, federalist paper) has been giving the NDP quite positive coverage
and the latest Ekos poll (April 14-15th) has:
BQ 28
NDP 24
Lib 23
CPC 18
GR 7
as well, as the NDP as second choice of 26.1% of Canadian voters:
Second choice for Conservatives
1) NDP 23%
2) Lib 20%
Second choice for Liberals
1) NDP 49%
Second choice for BQ
1) NDP 41%
2) Liberals 17%
NDP's big bump in the QC media post-debates seems to be cooling off going in to the weekend
Also the four party leaders seem to be descending on the same isolated Northern QC riding where the NDP is running star candidate Romeo Saganash. What is going on there?
For those entertained by metering exercises, here is one that was done during the French debates. The public seems really turned off/cynical about Harper and Ignatieff, and responds strongest to Layton (even when his French is craptacular, as in clip #2) and Duceppe. Also interesting to me, the statements by Duceppe and Layton that got the strongest approval were those talking cooperation (clips #3,4 between parties, between Canadians). As I said earlier and will scream from the hilltops now...this is the theme of the campaign! This is why people can't decide if they want to give Harper a majority to stop the infighting or pull him back to avoid the fears/distaste they have for his agenda.
I don't know what I was thinking when I said that the NDP media bump was slowing down in QC, because here is some more.
The NDP candidate in Drummond has made a good splash in his home town paper talking about the NDP's economic policies. I fully expect this seat to be a four-way race (NDP @ 17% in 2008) and if the recent NDP poll numbers are for real, a target for a win.
In another strong riding for the NDP (2nd place in 2008 with 15%, Rookie BQ MP was elected @ 18 and is an undergraduate student @ UOttawa), Repentigny, the NDP candidate picks up some good press. Notice his balanced praise of Layton's French debate performance (e.g. criticises Layton a bit) and call for PR.
yes, you could add of course 1976 provincially,
and the PQ jumping to power, from I think 6-7 seats to 70-plus and total humilation for Bourassa Liberals ....
The link to the Repentigny story above was wrong. Here's the right link.
By the way, I see he lives in Montreal where he ran municipally, but "He says he knows the area, because members of his family reside in Repentigny." Not a real plus?
I don't think I've seen this discussed, but what does the PQ have invested in this election? Are they going all out to prevent a poor Bloc showing?
The BQ and PQ share or coordinate personnel and resources. So "all out" is the norm. Or put differently, there is nothing more to dip into or committ that isnt out there already.
Or, for that matter, 2007 provincially, even if the ADQ was a one-election wonder.
Thanks and yes, it sounds like bad news. On a very slight bright side, the young BQ MP is reputed to be a very progressively minded guy and acting as such in Parliament. That being said, this working class riding should be NDP territory if the party wants to grow in the province.
For fun, I have been playing around with the UBC Election Forecaster and trying to replicate the strongest recent NDP poll results from QC. Of course, the forecaster is really dumb in that it assumes that nothing changes between 2008 and 2011 at the riding level so all aggregate trends apply equally across ridings (almost certain a false assumption), but it is still interesting as a type of "sensitivity" analysis of how many seats could go one way or another based on the current support shifts the Ekos poll claims.
Results: With the NDP's Ekos polling numbers, I looked at a virtually pure vote shift from the BQ to the NDP, with a pure shift from the Conservatives to the BQ. In the event of such a shift the NDP win Outremont and Gatineau comfortably and nothing else.
The Liberals are the main beneficiaries, winning 4 more seats. Otherwise the seats results remain the same, with the NDP finishing a close second in about 16 mainly francophone BQ seats, mostly in outlying communities around Montreal.
Sweep: I tinkered with switching votes between the BQ and NDP, to see how small the gap has to be before the NDP makes big gains.
NDP seats (Gap: %BQ-%NDP)
3 (4.5%)
4 (3.5%)
5,6 (3.1%)
8,9 (1.9%)
10 (1.6%)
11 (1.5%)
13,14 (1.1%)
15 (0.9%)
16 (0.7%)
17 (0.5%)
18,19 (0.3%)
20 (0.1%)
23 (0%)
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So in conclusion, it looks like Mulcair can achieve his goal of 6 MPs if the NDP closes the gap with the BQ to 3%, otherwise nothing happens unless the gap gets below 2%. The take-home lesson from this, is that the NDP breakthrough probably happens (given the current polling numbers) when the BQ-NDP gap closes to 3%. Another take-home lesson is that there is a low-hanging tier of seats and then quite a gap before they all start to fall off the tree. So a 6-seat target strategy is probably right on the money.
For fun, here are the 6 seats UBC says go NDP: Outremont, Gatineau, Laurier-Ste.-Marie, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, Drummond, Saint Lambert
Of those, I would be willing to believe Outremont, Gatineau, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, and Drummond are feasible (in that order). The first three are definitely on the NDP's radar and the last has a strong candidate. More likely though, is that the NDP would win Abitibi-Baie James before Drummond (with a 3% gap my model has the NDP 7.1% behind the BQ in Abitibi-Baie James, and assuming a bump from running a star candidate...), and who knows what could happen in Jonquiere-Alma (my projection has the NPD at 17.7%, 25% behind the Conservatives). My projection puts Hull-Aylmer out of reach (the Liberals are polling too high, NDP only reaches 27.4%). Hull-Aylmer depends completely on whether or not the BQ vote folds like a cheap tent. My guess is it won't be enough this time. Jeanne-Le-Ber also goes Liberal by less than 3%, so if NDP candidate Tyrone Benskin has any star power, maybe he could close that gap too.
So there you have it: NDP wins Outremont, Gatineau, Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie in the event of a breakthrough. Abitibi-Baie-James, Jeanne-Le-Ber, Drummond as stalking horses.
For those interested, here are the numbers I punched into the UBC forecaster:
"Migrating from ... party in 2008 Migrating to party ... in 2010
CPC LIB NDP BLQ GRP OTR NON
Conservative Party CPC 81.0 % 19.0 %
Liberal Party LIB 94.1 % 5.9 %
New Democratic Party NDP 100.0 %
Bloc Québecois BLQ 34.2 % 58.1 % 7.7 %
Green Party GRP 100.0 %
Other Parties OTR 100.0 %
Non-Voters NON 100.0 %"
More warm and fuzzy coverage of the NDP. This time in Quebec City. The journalist was impressed that the crowd at the NDP rally was young, unlike for the 3 other parties. Raymond Cote, the NDP candidate in the most winnable seat(?), received a shout out.
It's been a huge media day for the NDP in Quebec. Lots of glowing coverage and the beginnings of pushback from the Bloc Quebecois. Jack Layton met with popular Quebec City mayor Regis Lebeaume today and the QMI news agency is running the headline "Quebec is in love with Jack"
Jack Layton campaigns in Montreal
It's so amusing to hear the political commentators who say that even with 24%+ support, the NDP won't win more that 2-3 seats.
When Alexa McDonough ran her first campaign in 1997, the NDP went from 0 seats in Atlantic Canada to 8, electing MPs in ridings like Acadie-Bathurst, Halifax, Dartmouth, Halifax West, Beasejour, Sackville-Eastern Shore, and Sydney-Victoria, where the NDP had never elected members before.
Jack's rise in popularity in Quebec reminds me greatly of Alexa's experience in 1997.
As I listed several examples in a previous post, when Quebec voters change their voting patterns, they do so in force.
It's not totally baseless...the NDP suffers under the FPTP system. The NDP got 25% in Saskatchewan in the last election and zero seats.
Recap of today:
Local candidates getting news coverage
Serge Bergeron (Beauce) 1, 2
This is Maxime Bernier's riding and unlikely to switch. Bernier is part of a political dynasty in this riding where every family has a bottle of maple syrup on its kitchen table. Yes, they make some of the best maple treats. He wins 2/3rds of the vote.
Québec City candidates: Raymond Côté says the NDP could win half the seats in the Capital region
Anne-Mary Day also got some shoutouts as candidate in Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
Romeo Saganash got news coverage across the province,
Pierre Jacob in Brôme-Missisquoi
In what could become a true four-way race economist and 4th time candidate Guy Caron got mention in his race against rookie BQ MP Claude Guimond in
Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques.Mathieu Ravignat in Pontiac
And not to be left out: Françoise Boivin in Gatineau.
And that doesn't even count all the TV broadcasts and articles about Layton, calling him the "surprise" of the campaign, "second to Duceppe in Québec and second to Harper in Canada" etc. It is probably also the source of radio discussion.
The NDP needs to go all out in support of its local campaigns in Quebec.
The central party should transfer enough funds to the Quebec riding associations so that they can pool their money and buy lots of TV ads across the province. If the riding associations aren't capable of doing so in such a short time-frame (two weeks), maybe they could transfer the money back to the central party and let them handle the details. Since it would benefit their local campaigns, they could still claim it as a local expense - rather than a national expense - and get a substantial rebate from Elections Canada.