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An article on why sovereignists should NOT vote for the NDP.
http://www2.lactualite.com/jean-francois-lisee/le-npd-et-le-quebec-quand...
I hear from multiple sources that the NDP vote is less effective because it is spread out evenly. What is this based on? The only regional breakdown I remember seeing showed the NDP vote being concentrated in greater Montreal. Aren't people saying it is spread evenly simply because they don't know how it is spread out.
Polling in the past couple of years from Leger & CROP tended to show the NDP running running evenly between regions & linguistic groups
But the Ekos poll last week showed the NDP 10% higher in Montreal. While it is a smaller sample size it does raise questions about how the sudden bump is playing out.
There's some new Montreal numbers from today's EKOS
BQ 35.7%, Lib 21.7%, NDP 20.6%, Con 14.6%, Green 6.1%
In and out, anyone?
My thought too Wilf.
The smears are flying against NDP star candidate Francoise Boivin (Gatineau, the NDP's likely 2nd seat in the event of a breakthrough) from both the BQ and Liberals and getting very low.
It was stunning yesterday how positive the coverage of the NPD was in Quebec City. Then again, Layton had a lot of sweetheart policy announcements to make after what sounded like an enthusiastic meeting with Quebec City mayor Regis Lebeaume. Even though there are only two weeks left, I am guessing the NPD will pay another visit to Quebec, stopping perhaps in Jonquiere-Alma (the Saguenay) to support star candidate Claude Patry, Montreal to support candidates like Helen Leblanc (see below), and Gatineau-Hull-Aylmer given the NDPs high hopes there (yes, the NPD has already been there at least twice already during this campaign).
Helene Leblanc, NPD candidate in LaSalle Emard (federalist, potential 4-way race, with a good demographic mix in Montreal) was profiled in a local paper. She is one of the NDP candidates with some profile in Quebec having had a strong finish (3rd?) in the Montreal municipal elections as a local candidate for the very green and progressive Projet Montreal.
Jean Rousseau, NDP candidate in Compton Stanstead's debate participation is profiled here. The NPD has a chance here if there is a massive shift from the BQ to NDP, but only IF.
The BQ incumbent is attacking the NDP in Drummond, a very winnable seat for the NDP in a possible 4-way race.
There are too many Quebec editorials about the NDPs gains (positive) to read these days.
The Liberals seem to have made a large online ad buy over the last few days in Quebec. The BQ has also been advertising. I have yet to see any ads for the NDP but I bet most of them are running on TV (hopefully outside the news timeslots given the big and positive billing the NDP has already been getting there).
The BQ has dropped the gloves with the NDP appealing to Quebeckers to vote strategically for the BQ to prevent the Conservatives from getting elected. Duceppe's slogan is "Votez utile" or "Vote useful" in English. For the most part Duceppe has tried to ridicule the NDP, suggesting they are not a party to take seriously. Duceppe has also raised the issue of separation perhaps to solidify his base and attacks on the NPD's sympathy toward Quebec are being floated. Duceppe has to be careful not to let all of this get too ugly or it might explode in his face.
The media in Quebec City said Layton would never visit. Well guess what...he did, and Quebeckers turned out to support him. Who would have imagined a rally with the NDP like this before Layton became leader?
I'm glad somebody noticed!
When the Tories did it back in 2006, I thought it was unethical and borderline criminal. Now I'm not so sure...
The NPD is blasting back with 4 new ads, including one that takes a jab at Duceppe criticism of Layton being "a nice guy" but Quebeckers not needing to elect a nice guy, needing to elect a guy that yada yada yada.
The main change in these ads is that the tagline has been modified to say "There is a lot to do. All the better. We are ready, we have the team."
ETA: I'm actually worried the NDP might be running too many ads in Quebec. Given that the ads repeat the same campaign music, they could get very repetitive and thus annoying if they get a lot of back to back play. Also, these ads carry an important message but seem less polished than the previous set. I hope the NDP manages the right balance in their ad buy in Quebec (and doesn't forget the rest of Canada
)
It is an unfortunate misnomer labelling what the Cons did in 2006 "In and Out". In and Out, per se, has been done for a long time, And it is legal. What the Conservatives did is use In and Out as a shellgame to move expenses from the national campaign to riding campaigns that had room under their spending cap.
What Krago outined is legal and substantialy close to practices that are relatively common.
"Voter utile" is the French phrase for "strategic voting."
I hope Duceppe feels embarassed to use the old Liberal line. Then again, I guess the PQ used that against Amir Khadir and Quebec Solidaire, with some success.
Thanks Wilf, I hadn't seen the term before.
Layton's visit to Québec City and their mayor (the most popular politician in Québec) continues to generate coattails for local candidates. Following a poll showing Raymond Côté a strong third for the NDP in Beauport-Limolou, the media has given him a solo article and written about the BQ candidate's pushback.
Also from the Québec region, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Conservative Josée Verner's NDP opponent Alexandrine Latendresse picked up a media mention.
Réjean Genest, NPD candidate from the winnable seat of Shefford (especially given the anecdotal polling evidence of a complete collapse of francophone Liberal support and the crumbling of Central Québec "ma région au pouvoir" support for the Conservatives), got a positive profile in the local press. Looks like a nice guy! Don't tell Duceppe
Jack and Tom please visit Shefford!
And while we're on the subject of the flame out of Harper's "ma région au pouvoir" campaign, here is a quote from a Conservative strategist:
Même les conservateurs disent le sentir dans certaines régions, nommément Québec, mais aussi le Centre-du-Québec.
«En ce moment, le NPD fait mal à tout le monde, on le sent pour vrai», indique un stratège conservateur.
link
Rough translation: Even the conservatives say they feel it [the Jack Layton's appeal] in certain regions, specifically Québec, but also the Centre of Québec. "At this time, the NDP is doing damage to everyone, we really feel it," indicated a conservative strategist.
There were yet more articles about Roméo Saganash today. Wow does this guy sound cool. Check out this lead on an article about him:
Difficile de marcher dans les rues de Val-d’Or avec Roméo Saganash sans se faire arrêter constamment.
Reconnu par tous, particulièrement par les autochtones, il serre des mains, parle aux gens : une phrase en anglais, une phrase en français, une en cri ou en anishinabe (langue parlée principalement par les Algonquins).
Translation: It's hard to walk the streets of Val d'Or with Roméo Saganash with being constantly stopped. Known by everyone, particularly the First Nations/aboriginals, he shakes hands, speaks to people: one sentence in English, one in French, one in Cree or in Anishinabe (language spoken principally by the Algonquin).
I recommend reading the whole article, it's really positive/great.
Here is a cheeky editorial about Quebeckers love affair with Jack. Two points from the article: 1) If Quebeckers are in love with Jack, can you imagine what it would be like if his name were Jacques? 2) Love at first sight is often short lived. The same news story wrote an editorial about Jack's rise calling it the fall of "nationalisation" in the presence of strong "nationalism."
It sounds like Mulcair threw Charest under the bus recently as the attacks on the NPD continue to gain steam.
I'm getting a real kick out of the BQ messages on twitter. They are going in to overdrive trying to stop the NDP surge. They've trotted out ex-NDP candidate Christelle Bogosta who ran and got 9% in Brome-Missisquoi in 2008 and is now the BQ candidate to say the BQ is where it's at. When she switched sides, the only justification the BQ leadership made for her jump was, well we asked her to confirm that she voted "oui" in 1995, so it's all good. Duceppe's new line about Jack is he may be a nice guy but the NDP is not so "nice" for Quebec. Give me a break. It's funny that just a few weeks ago the BQ grassroots couldn't drive away NPD star recruit Jean-Claude Rocheleau fast enough and now they're grasping at the nearest NPD straw they can reach. The NPD is campaigning on a positive message and the BQ is running scared!
Did I just hear that the NDP just hit 30% support in Quebec?
Duceppe is calling Layton "the best ally of Harper"
NDP candidate Francois Choquette picked up another positive news article in the local paper, this time on environmental issues.
NDP @ 30% in QC is just a rumour right now. We will have to see what the CROP poll says. If you look at the sensitivity analysis above, you will see that if the NDP ties the BQ it wins roughly 20 seats, so if the NDP were actually in the 30s and were above the BQ, that is a scenario the party would be looking at. This would, at the least, move the NDP into 3rd place in the HoC.
First a quote:
"Mulcair, the NDP’s Quebec lieutenant and a former Quebec cabinet minister, said Wednesday night that the poll results reflect what he has seeing on the ground. In fact, the response he got during a swing through the traditionally sovereignist Saguenay Lac St. Jean region last week was so positive that party organizers joked he had lost his mind when he reported he thought the NDP was at 40 per cent in that area." link
Now for the rumoured polls:
EKOS
NDP 31 BQ 24 LIB 20 CPC 17
CROP
NDP 36 BQ 31 CPC 17 LIB 13
The CROP numbers could see the NDP win up to 40 seats in Québec. If no other seats changed hands this election, the NDP would be the official opposition, with Jack Layton called upon to be PM if the Conservative minority fell on a confidence vote. These polls are earthshattering.
I tried plugging the CROP numbers in to the UBC projection model.
The NDP wins 37 seats, the Libs lose 14 to win 0, the CPC lose 3 to win 7, the BQ lose 19 to win 30.
Shades of election 2000.
I did the same, and I got NDP 36, BQ 32, Con 6, Ind. 1, Libs 0. Very similar, but see this thread for some refinements.
Because there is no way to know which votes have switched, and because the UBC projection model takes account of no differences in candidates incumbency etc between 2008 and 2011, our results are for all intents and purposes the same.
ETA: Poll confirming NDP in 1st in QC
Forum Research
NDP 34 BQ 25 Lib 18 CPC 16
My favourite thing about the poll? The Conservatives keep dropping in QC support.
Another great article on Romeo Saganash.
More thread proliferation has taken off and it's too late to stop it. Please continue this discussion here in Wilf's new thread, already well underway.