babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2013 the authors
Syndicate
Great turn out and great article in both G & M and TorStar.
Hope this gives us momentum in that riding and the NDP actually does better than the libs, even if we lose to the cons. I never thought I woudl say that, but the backroom doyle guy has left a bad taste in my mouth.
Anybody else want to vote strageically?
We are sorry, but the spam filter on this site decided that your submission could be spam.
Please fill in the CAPTCHA below to get your submission accepted.
Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,
Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,
Layton has been very good about visiting EML over the years. Mathyssen wins her riding by outworking everyone on the ground.
Doug, I know Sinclair seems like a champ compared to Dolby right now. But Dolby put in a great deal of time and effort supporting and representing the NDP. It's possible that his exit will galvanize an ant-Preston movement in the riding.
Sinclair is a much harder edged and blunt candidate. Dolby was a little too hesitant, and I have to wonder if the local NDP may have wedged him into the position.
It's a thankless job getting your ass kicked. Sinclair is more equiped to deal some damage along the way to a re-election for Preston.
I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:
CON 28,958
NDP 12,436
LIB 6,812
Yep let the truth be told! Strategic Voting is Liberal Propoganda!
The Liberals made a strategic attack on the NDP at the start of the campaign.
- Bob Rae campaigned in Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar
- Vote Compass
- Left-wing platform
- Strategic Voting Campaign
Anybody got any others?
NDP candidate got twice the votes as the Lib? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe at the NDP convention in Vancouver next month - they should give out a Ryan Dolby Memorial Award! or better yet - we should hold a "Dinner for Losers" and invite the following people:
Ryan Dolby
Christelle Bogosta
Jean-Claude Rocheleau
Paul Summerville
Chris Axworthy
...and as Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh to take turns as honorary MCs at the event!
You know, maybe some of those above mentioned folk would like to come back into the fold and personally I don't really like the attack. Let's not act like others do in the MSM. So are my thoughts!
Though in the meantime, we can shoehorn this in as a token obligatory gesture
Thanks for voicing that - I've been thinking much the same.
While I personally don't have any desire to see any of these folks standing for the NDP again, I am reminded that the challenge/opportunity right now is (partially) whether or not we can earn the votes of folks who have never or rarely voted NDP in the past.
A good number of those will need to be non-voters and new voters. Some of those may even be folks who have voted Conservative before (populist Reformers who may someday become disillusioned, prairie farmers who get screwed over by Harper's corporatism, new Canadians temporarily taken in by Kenney's tactics, middle class voters who finally realise that Harper is hurting them, etc...).
But a good part of those new NDP voters will probably come from the ranks of former Liberal voters. There are a good number of them who hold progressive viewpoints on most issues, and whose vision of Canadian society is probably pretty congruent with the NDPs. They've been voting Liberal out of a belief that the LPC holds those same values, or as a lesser of evils vote against the Conservatives, or because there was no viable NDP presence in their riding, etc... We need to be able to reach these voters, we need to figure out how to deliver a message that they can hear and respond to in language that makes sense to them.
I share the disdain for the turncoats and opportunists who have deserted the NDP, and I totally understand (and to some extent engage in) the ritual of ridiculing them now that the shoe has been moved to the other foot. While we shouldn't deny ourselves some of that pleasure, neither should we revel too much in it or be too smug about it.
Our message and language needs to be one of openness and welcoming to the folks we want to attract for future elections. Too much disdain and personal attacks on the people they have been voting for doesn't seem like the best way to reach them.
2004: 4,473
2006: 9,899
2008: 11,801
2011: 15,522
Probably makes sense to look at ALL the relevant numbers if we want to understand what is going on in EML
2004
Con: 20,415 (44%); LIB 15,860 (34%); NDP 6,763 (15%); Green 2,033 (4%); CHP 1,246 (3%)
2006:
Con: 23,416 (46%); LIB 13,517 (26%); NDP 9,873 (19%); Green 2,873 (6%); CHP 1,039 (2%)
2008:
Con: 22,970 (48%); LIB 11,169 (24%); NDP 9,135 (19%); Green 3,241 (7%); CHP 619 (1%)
2011:
Con: 28,958 (57%); LIB 6,812 (14%); NDP 12,436 (25%); Green 1,529 (3%); CHP 582 (1%)
So over the past 4 elections, several trends are clear.
Two parties have seen their share of the vote rise each election:
The Conservatives have seen a steady rise in their vote, from 44% to 57%, an increase of 13%.
The NDP have gone from 15% to 25%, an increase of 10%
One party has seen a steady decline in their vote over the same time:
The Liberal vote has decreased in each election, from 34% to 14%, a drop of 20%
The two minor parties have both seen fluctuations over the elections.
The Greens have dropped 1% from their 2004 performance, going from 4% to 3% (with better performances during the 2 intervening elections.
The CHP have dropped steadily from a high of 3% in 2004 to 1% in 2011.
In general it can be presumed that the Conservative increase (13%) corresponds to gaining from the Liberals (11%), while also gobbling up 2% from the CHP. Similarly, the NDP increase (10%) corresponds to gaining 9% from the Liberals and 1% from the Greens. [Obviously it is impossible to look at those numbers in anything other than generalities, in reality individual voter behaviour changes cannot be definitively accounted for, nor can the changes created by new voters entering the electorate or past voters not voting.]
With the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote over past elections, and the Conservative rising to win a fairly strong majority over the same time, it makes no sense to talk of this riding as one as a strategic voting target in the current electoral environment. Barring a major reversal in party fortunes, incumbent retirement, or dramatic redistribution changes, it seems that EML has moved into the category of being a fairly safe Conservative seat. The Liberals are no longer in contention for the seat, and it remains to be seen if the NDP vote will continue to grow at the same rate it has in past elections. But anyone arguing that NDP supporters here should vote Liberal to defeat the Conservative (as did Ryan Dolby) clearly can find no evidence in recent voting trends.
It also suggests that when suggesting strategic voting, that these silly sites have to take into consideration the "trend line overtime" rather than just using the last election as the benchmark. If sites had done this, those sites may have suggested that the rise in votes for the NDP was really the one to support rather than the declining liberals.
That said, I also believe that these strategic voting sites are operated as part of the Liberal home team - and thus it's no surprise that they were recommending more NDP vote liberal rather than vice versa, particularly since the majority of them were situated out of Ontario.
Furthermore, if these are supposed "progressive voting sites" they should be supporting real progressives rather than some Liberal candidates who didn't have a progressive bone in their bodies.
I about choked on my coffee this morning when seeing that the CAW supported their members voting for Joyce (whoever) in Vancover. Really, are you for real? It was the monied fighting the monied (lib/con) and suggesting that Joyce would even welcome your "visible" presence (outside of getting the progressive vote out of the certain neighbourhoods) by going door to door in those trendy neighbourhoods smacks of "union misrecognition".
I think magnaminity is well placed with defeated opponents who are people of principle and honour.
It is missplaced on the prefidious.
Did you know Bennedict Arnold died penniless? No one in Britain-- not even John Company-- would employ him. It's not a matter of an archaic version of honour. It's just being smart about not placing trust in someone who has violated trust in the past.
So no, you certainly don't welcome those with a proven track record of perfidy back into the fold.
They are deserters, and don't merit mention by name without subsequent expectoration, nor should we entertain any intercourse with them.
Ever.
Who is Joyce?
I would assume it is Joyce Murray, Liberal MP from Vancouver Quadra.
Joyce Murray
Liberal incumbent Joyce Murray has defeated Conservative challenger Deborah Meredith once again.
With 185 of 239 polls in, Murray has taken 41.5 percent of the votes.
Meredith has garnered 38.6 percent.
The NDP's Victor Edward Elkins has 14.4 percent.
Laura-Leah Shaw of the Greens has 5.5 percent.
Current Member of ParliamentIts Member of Parliament (MP) is Joyce Murray, (Liberal) a former BC cabinet minister and provincial Member of the Legislative Assembly. She was first elected in a March 2008 by-election, by a small margin. She was re-elected in the general election on October 14, 2008, by nearly 5000 votes.
[edit] DemographicsThis is the sixth wealthiest riding in Canada, with an average family income of over $145,000. As of 2006, this riding had 37% immigrants, most of whom are Chinese-Canadians. The province's largest university, the University of British Columbia is situated in this riding. The major employer is the professional, scientific and technical service sector. The unemployment rate is 5.2%.[1] Nearly every house in this riding is worth over a million dollars
So Joyce Murray was in the Campbell govt, composed of social credit and right leaning Liberals - she is most definitely NOT progressive and represents the moneyed class - so electing and supporting her just meant that she would support the Cons when the vote came forward in a minority situation. Thus the progressive misrecognition!
Maybe so, technically--but esp. if the NDP has a "three hundred and eight" strategy in the works (no, not as in the website), it's worth preparing for the unexpected. After all, it went NDP provincially in 1990 (yeah, I know). and both St Thomas and the rump of urban London have a certain latent "NDP-friendliness" to them...