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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility?

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2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Can they maintain this? Can someone cellphone-ambush McFayden to quietly admit he will privatize hydro?

And he will privatize Manitoba Hydro, he will, he will, or better to say, the Tories will.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

The latest poll by Probe was just released and the NDP and PCs are now dead even at 44% each - a few months ago the Tories were leading by 12 points. With the NDP having a 13 point lead in Winnipeg this would almost certainly mean another NDP majority government.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/NDP-dominating-support-in-...


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
The latest poll by Probe was just released and the NDP and PCs are now dead even at 44% each - a few months ago the Tories were leading by 12 points. With the NDP having a 13 point lead in Winnipeg this would almost certainly mean another NDP majority government.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/NDP-dominating-support-in-Winnipeg-124749234.html

Just what we need, the NDP getting whacked in the 2015 election as they did in Saskatchewan 4 years ago. That's going to make it really hard to dislodge all thoe Conservative MPs from Manitoba that year or win back Winnipeg City in 2014.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

I don't follow.  Are you saying that the Manitoba NDP needs to lose THIS election to avoid losing the one in 2015?


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

Ken Burch wrote:

I don't follow.  Are you saying that the Manitoba NDP needs to lose THIS election to avoid losing the one in 2015?

Or really whacked like in 2001 in BC?

The shit may really hit the fan between now and 2015 economically and environmentally (this will obviously have social impact). Wouldn't you rather have an NDP government than a Conservative one?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Policywonk wrote:
The shit may really hit the fan between now and 2015 economically and environmentally (this will obviously have social impact). Wouldn't you rather have an NDP government than a Conservative one?

The fact is that the NDP will be defeated one day. Specifically, the next four years are going to be hard for any incumbent government, so I could very easily see that circumstance, combined with a "time for change" mentality easily crushing the NDP in 2015 and we will get hard right-wing government anyways. Not to mention that if the NDP starts to sink in public opinion polling shortly after this Fall, there is very little they will be able to do and will probably be pressured into doing things the PCs would have done anyways.

Look at Saskatchewan. In 2007, the NDP reached historic lows in its popular vote, chose a leader that reminded people why they threw out the NDP in the first place, and are having a hard time gaining any traction against the current government. It probably would have been better if the Saskatchewan NDP had lost in 2003 and given the Saskatchewan Party enough room to hang itself then.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

These kinds of theories are always too clever by half. Sure, maybe in retrospect it might have been better for the Saskatchewan NDP to have lost the 2003 election rather tnhan losing in 2007 - maybe. But you never know how these things will work out. How do we know for sure that the next four years will be any worse a time for the Manitoba NDP to be in power than any other four year period. If it is a really tough time and there is an economic downturn - do you really want to have a rightwing PC government in power eagerly using the economic crisis as an excuse to destroy the social fabric like what a lot of GOP governors are doing in the US??

I still remember how in Jan. 2009 a lot of Liberals said "Oh, let's drop the coalition with the NDP and let Harper drink from the poisoned chalice of being in power during this economic meltdown - that way he will get the blame and we can win an election a year from now". How did THAT turn out???

Its true that all good things come to an end - but I think that if I were British and enduring the horror of Cameron's ultra rightwing government - I'd feel pretty nostalgic for the Gordon Brown and I would wonder why exactly it was "time for a change".

Some governments can last a very long time. Alberta has had a Tory government for 40 years. Ontario had Tory governments for 43 years. I can't worry about who is going to win the Manitoba election after the election after the next one. All I care about is who wins this fall.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
How do we know for sure that the next four years will be any worse a time for the Manitoba NDP to be in power than any other four year period.

We are already in an economic downturn the scale of which we have not seen in about 80 years. The trends suggest that this will continue.

Stockholm wrote:
If it is a really tough time and there is an economic downturn - do you really want to have a rightwing PC government in power eagerly using the economic crisis as an excuse to destroy the social fabric like what a lot of GOP governors are doing in the US??

If the NDP wins, it may very well be forced into making these types of cuts anyways. Look at what is happening in Greece, where people a few years ago voted for a socialist government to clean up and build their country and how this government is now shoving round after round of austerity measures down the throats of the Greek people.

Stockholm wrote:
Some governments can last a very long time. Alberta has had a Tory government for 40 years. Ontario had Tory governments for 43 years.

Two provinces, two specific examples. They are anomalies, most governments in most jurisdictions don't last that long.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

so are you suggesting that the Manitoba NDP decide not to contest the October election? Should they say "we don't like governing in tough economic times - so we will simply concede the next election to the Tories and let it be their problem?". I get the impression that you're rooting for the Manitoba NDP to lose because you can't forgive them for picking Greg Selinger as their leader You want more than anything else to see him lose the election - so you can then run around saying "see, I told you so, we should have picked Ashton". That will be little consolation to all the people in manitoba who would then have to live under a rabidly rightwing government for at least four year in exchange for you getting to say "I told you so".

It also seems very debatable that there is much of an economic downturn in large parts of Canada. We did after all just give the Tories a majority because Canadians (whether rightly or wrongly) thought that the economy was doing well.Objectively speaking, it seems to me that in Canada, the current recession is by far the mildest one in my lifetime. I remember the recession of the early 80s when unemployment hit 12% and interest rates were 20%. I also remember the big recession of the early 90s which was far worse than anything we have had happen in the last couple of years.

If you look at the Probe poll - something like 70% of Manitobans think the province is on the right track and doing well. Right now in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan unemployment is very low and the things seem to be on a pretty even keel. Of course some economists see storm clouds ahead - but when in modern history have economists ever NOT seen impending economic disaster. That's what economists are paid to do - to always say that we are about to slide into a depression and that we are about to hit some "wall". Of course a broken clock can be right twice a day.

 


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

I find the indignity over the CWB a little disingenuous. Not from Selinger, of course, but from all the rural MB farmers who voted Conservative federally in the first place. There's no way any invested voter in rural MB could not have known the Conservative plan regarding the wheat board. WHY WOULD THEY VOTE CONSERVATIVE IF THEY KNEW WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES WERE??

Now, I recognize that Nikki Ashton's riding comprises the northern 50% of the province, but correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think that is where the grain is grown. Anyone know the breakdown of the rural vote here with respect to CWB invested farmers?

And good on Selinger for milking that cow, pun intended. Do conservative voting farmers think Hugh would go up against Harper? Think again.


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

Also, certain comments in media recently suggesting that the provincial gov't response to the flooding could hurt them in October. I don't see how this claim can be made. Do they think conservatives, the ones who spent 11 years creating the crisis in the teachers pension by NOT funding it would have a better response to flood disaster?? That's a laugh. My guess is they would simply try to offload the costs onto the private sector, insurance companies, etc.

I think flood-hit communities that think the provincial gov't isn't doing enough for them would do well to ponder for a few minutes what they would get from Hughie and his gang.

By the way, Aristotleded is right about the province coming into tougher times. The ongoing flood response costs (probably continuing into fall), as well as the loss of rural income this year from massive crop loss are going to hit revenues hard. I wouldn't be surprised if  the con gang don't even want that responsibility right now. 


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

We are hitting July and we are still seeing flooding. This could be a permanent feature; there needs to be a discussion of what is to be done for more flood mitigation across the bottom half of the province.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
so are you suggesting that the Manitoba NDP decide not to contest the October election?

Of course not. That's what political parties do, they contest elections.

Stockholm wrote:
I told you so, we should have picked Ashton.

You're right, we should have, or at least someone from that wing of the party. That's a separate matter.

Stockholm wrote:
That will be little consolation to all the people in manitoba who would then have to live under a rabidly rightwing government for at least four year in exchange for you getting to say "I told you so".

If the NDP wins, they will be under a great deal of pressure to deliver a rabidly rightwing government, and they may cave into that pressure, so we could very well see rightwing government no matter who wins the election anyways. Once again, look at what's happening in Greece.

Stockholm wrote:
It also seems very debatable that there is much of an economic downturn in large parts of Canada. We did after all just give the Tories a majority because Canadians (whether rightly or wrongly) thought that the economy was doing well.Objectively speaking, it seems to me that in Canada, the current recession is by far the mildest one in my lifetime. I remember the recession of the early 80s when unemployment hit 12% and interest rates were 20%. I also remember the big recession of the early 90s which was far worse than anything we have had happen in the last couple of years.

Then you really need to climb down from your ivory tower and take a look around the real world, or just talk to anyone under 35. From the start, this did not feel to me like a "run of the mill recession," there was a sense that something was seriously wrong. We have practically no manufacturing base left in this country, wages are stagnant, the cost of education is high, and there are record levels of personal debt. Even in the 1930s, Canada had an industrial base it could use to put itself back to work. That base is now gone. The middle class is in clear decline, and we are seeing extremes of wealth distribution. That's why the Conservatives and NDP gained seats while the Liberals collapsed, because the rich people voted to keep money away from the poor people and the poor people voted for policies that would help them. Look at your own city, where the polarization between rich and poor is growing while the middle class declines. And also remember that less than 2 in 5 Canadians didn't vote, and people in higher income brackets are more likely to vote than in the lower, so support for the Conservatives isn't that high anyways.

Stockholm wrote:
Of course some economists see storm clouds ahead - but when in modern history have economists ever NOT seen impending economic disaster. That's what economists are paid to do - to always say that we are about to slide into a depression and that we are about to hit some "wall". Of course a broken clock can be right twice a day.

Actually most economists missed the boat on the current recession. In the early days, they said it would be a small downturn, but didn't change their tune until things were obviously bad. And they kept going on about the "recovery," even though things hadn't improved significantly for average people during that time. Now they talk about double-dip, but again they're late to the party. They've finally caught on to what the rest of us already know: times are going to be tough. And jas makes a good point about how much the flooding is going to hurt this province economically, for years.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

"If the NDP wins, they will be under a great deal of pressure to deliver a rabidly rightwing government, and they may cave into that pressure, so we could very well see rightwing government no matter who wins the election anyways. Once again, look at what's happening in Greece."

Manitoba is not Greece by a long shot. In any case, IF a re-elected NDP government had to bring in some unpopular measures because they had no choice but to do so (not that i think that would happen in the first place) - it would be a lot worse if you had a rightwing PC government that actually ENJOYS destroying the social safety net and would gleefully tear things down using a recession as an excuse.

We'v been down this road before. I remember Ontario in 1995 when all these people were saying "let's 'punish Bob Rae for the social contract by electing Mike Harris and the PCs - they couldn't possibly be any worse". Well guess what, Harris was many., many, many times worse. He cut welfare by 30% and had a big smile on his face while he did it, he wreaked havoc on the education system, forcibly amalgamated municipalities and he also scrapped just about every single solitary piece of progressive legislation that had come in in Ontario in the previous generation.

What people need to understand is that rightwing politicians ENJOY taking power when the economy of going to hell in a hand basket - it gives them an opportunity to use the "shock doctrine" excuse and use the crisis as a pretext to go on an ideological war and bring in measures that the public would never stand for otherwise.

"From the start, this did not feel to me like a "run of the mill recession," there was a sense that something was seriously wrong. We have practically no manufacturing base left in this country, wages are stagnant, the cost of education is high, and there are record levels of personal debt."

All the things you list here have been going on in Canada for the past 20-odd years - the "recession" is neither here nor there. Let's go back four years to before the "recession" officially started when supposedly things were booming - guess what? we had practically no manufacturing base left in this country, wages were stagnant, the cost of education was high, and there were record levels of personal debt. That has been the standard condition of the Canadian economy for as far back as I can remember - even when the economy is supposedly booming - wages are stagnant, cost of education is high and there are record levels of personal debt. The problem with focusing so much on the "recession" is that it implies that everything was hunky dorey up until the summer of 2008 and then all of sudden we come up to all these facts. No, the recession that technically hit the world in 2008 really didn't have all that much impact in Canada. For most people the economy was shit when it was supposedly booming. What difference does it make if the headlines say that according to Statscan there is now a recession? For most people their personal economic lives have been a lifelong recession.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002
Stockholm wrote: I told you so, we should have picked Ashton.

"You're right, we should have, or at least someone from that wing of the party. That's a separate matter."

What "wing" is that? The "lets wave our hands around, sound strident and be personally unpleasant" wing?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
"From the start, this did not feel to me like a "run of the mill recession," there was a sense that something was seriously wrong. We have practically no manufacturing base left in this country, wages are stagnant, the cost of education is high, and there are record levels of personal debt."

All the things you list here have been going on in Canada for the past 20-odd years - the "recession" is neither here nor there. Let's go back four years to before the "recession" officially started when supposedly things were booming - guess what? we had practically no manufacturing base left in this country, wages were stagnant, the cost of education was high, and there were record levels of personal debt. That has been the standard condition of the Canadian economy for as far back as I can remember - even when the economy is supposedly booming - wages are stagnant, cost of education is high and there are record levels of personal debt. The problem with focusing so much on the "recession" is that it implies that everything was hunky dorey up until the summer of 2008 and then all of sudden we come up to all these facts. No, the recession that technically hit the world in 2008 really didn't have all that much impact in Canada. For most people the economy was shit when it was supposedly booming. What difference does it make if the headlines say that according to Statscan there is now a recession? For most people their personal economic lives have been a lifelong recession.

Finally we agree on something.

Stockholm wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

I told you so, we should have picked Ashton.

"You're right, we should have, or at least someone from that wing of the party. That's a separate matter."

What "wing" is that? The "lets wave our hands around, sound strident and be personally unpleasant" wing?

You're accusing someone else of being strident and personally unpleasant, given your posting history?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

2dawall wrote:
We are hitting July and we are still seeing flooding. This could be a permanent feature; there needs to be a discussion of what is to be done for more flood mitigation across the bottom half of the province.

Lake Aggasiz is coming back.


genstrike
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Joined: May 1 2008

Stockholm wrote:

Stockholm wrote: I told you so, we should have picked Ashton.

"You're right, we should have, or at least someone from that wing of the party. That's a separate matter."

What "wing" is that? The "lets wave our hands around, sound strident and be personally unpleasant" wing?

For what it's worth, I've talked to Ashton a few times and I've never found him personally unpleasant.  Of course, Stockholm clearly knows a lot more about Manitoba politics than us dumb backwater Manitobans.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

genstrike wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Stockholm wrote: I told you so, we should have picked Ashton.

"You're right, we should have, or at least someone from that wing of the party. That's a separate matter."

What "wing" is that? The "lets wave our hands around, sound strident and be personally unpleasant" wing?

For what it's worth, I've talked to Ashton a few times and I've never found him personally unpleasant.  Of course, Stockholm clearly knows a lot more about Manitoba politics than us dumb backwater Manitobans.

Indeed, and you could tell clearly that distinction, as Selinger's support was primarily among the establishment, while Ashton courted northern and rural Manitobans as well as new Canadians. The establishment versus the lowly people. There's a Winnipeg-based clique that controls the political scene in this province, and that is reflected in the fact that there hasn't been a leader of a major party from outside Winnipeg since Howard Pawley. I suspect that a great deal of negative press that Ashton may have received is because this clique does not want to surrender control to anyone from outside the city. Large areas of the province outside of Winnipeg have their default voting patterns, so as a result nobody makes any serious effort there. But the feeling of "Perimeteritis (genstrike, you're from Winnipeg, how familiar are you with rural and northern Manitoba?)" is very strong outside of Winnipeg, and if there's ever a leader from outside of Winnipeg, it wouldn't surprise me if this leader would be able to shake things up in rural Manitoba in a big way.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

I never found Steve Ashton personally unpleasant at all - in fact I quite like Steve personally even if I don't agree with him all the time. By contrast, the few times I met Selinger he seemed like a cold fish (although I'm told he's becoming a bit more charismatic in public, he's still no Doer).

I only hear these things long distance of course, but some of my friends and acquaintances who are still active in the party tell me that a lot of people are upset at Steve because some of his leadership backers are openly backing the Tories, while others have engaged in some (apparently) pretty nasty nomination challenges in places like The Maples and Concordia.  Again, this is all second-hand, but that's what I'm hearing. Even if that's the case, I'm not sure why people would be mad at Steve personally.


genstrike
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Joined: May 1 2008

Outside of Russ Wyatt, who else in Steve Ashton's camp has gone over to the Tories?

And I don't think it makes sense for people to be judging Steve Ashton for the sins of Russ Wyatt.  Especially considering it was until only very recently that Wyatt was considered to be perfectly welcome within the NDP.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

I agree with you that it does not make sense to judge Steve for the 'sins' of some of his backers (if you want to go so far as to call them 'sins'), but IMHO Russ Wyatt has not 'until only very recently been perfectly welcome' within the NDP - I would say he's actually been persona non grata for some time, going all the way back to 1998 with his abrupt last-minute departure from the Transcona council race, which pissed off a *lot* of people in the party, so much so that the NDP and the Labour Council endorsed his opponent in 2002. He was also extremely vocal in his attacks on the government over OlyWest. A lot of NDPers I have talked to also believe he was backing Thomas Steen behind the scenes in the 2008 election and I had certainly heard those rumours at the time. So I was actually quite surprised to see him taking an active role in the party by becoming Steve's campaign chair.

Again, I hear all this second-hand, but it sounds like this is about more than just Russ Wyatt.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Getting back to the issue of what's going to happen in the provincial election this fall. It seems to me that Selinger probably suffered a bit in the beginning because he had to live up to being gary Doer's successor and to a lot of people he was an "under-study". There is evidence that he's making his own imprint now. Even before this Probe poll, the Angus Reid poll had shown a steady climb in Selinger's personal approval numbers and I think that his handling of the flood situation gave him a chance to prove himself - and from what i hear, he gets good marks for this handling of that crisis.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

The other reason that the NDP has been rising in the polls has to do with recent government announcements like expanding Birds Hill Park and rebuilding high school science labs, so the NDP has had more resources to this point. That advantage is now gone, considering that we are currently in a blackout period for government announcements due to the election. Once the campaign kicks into gear, that natural advantage will evapourate, and the PCs will have much more ammunition. Don't forget that the same key people working on McFadyen's campaign were also in charge of the campaigns that won Sam Katz an election he should have lost, and they are also responsible for the Conservatives picking up Winnipeg South Centre and Elmwood-Transcona. The NDP by contrast, while showing strength in Brandon, have been unable to win in Winnipeg, as evidenced by their failure to take back Winnipeg North.

Interestingly enough, that poll that places the NDP on top also has the Liberals very low. I'm not sure how it will translate, as Dr. Gerrard has the incumbency advantage in River Heights and the numbers aren't broken down geographically, but given recent federal results I think he is in great danger of losing the seat.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

It would be nice symbolism to have the Manitoba Liberals completely wiped off the map in Manitoba just like in Saskatchewan.


ghoris
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I would not be surprised to see Gerrard lose. The Tories are gunning hard for that seat. Apparently they had well over 500 people out to their nomination meeting.


Aristotleded24
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Hey ghoris, did you hear that Steeves has officially taken the plunge?


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Yep, did hear about it. Guess he figures Sam is going to stick around for a while, otherwise he'd be laying the groundwork for a mayoral bid. Should be quite the battle in Seine River. Shows you how irrelevant the Manitoba Liberals have become that a former candidate and longtime member is defecting to the Tories (although to be fair, Marcel Laurendeau has gone the opposite direction).

I saw last week that Rosann Wowchuk announced she is not running again. I expect to see Eric Robinson and maybe even Bill Blaikie calling it quits before the election as well. I'm sure they have all waited to the last minute to announce their retirements to avoid being dumped from cabinet.

Some Tories seem to think that her departure makes Swan River a swing seat. It has been in the past, to be sure - Wowchuk barely held on in 1995 and at one point on election night she had been declared defeated. That being said, I believe the boundaries have shifted quite a bit further north since the 80s and 90s, and it's hard to believe the big margins of victory Wowchuk got in the last three elections were solely because of personal popularity.  Nonetheless, the Tories seem to think they have a real shot at a pickup here.

Tory supporters like blogger Luc Lewandowski (Hacks & Wonks) are saying that the Tories can win six or new seven seats outside the Perimeter(!), meaning they only have to win as few as three in the city(!!!).  This ignores a few things: (1) the Tories lose a seat with the disappearance of Ste. Rose, (2) the Tories are vulnerable in some seats where their incumbents are retiring, namely Brandon West and Portage, and (3) it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that 20 point (or more) margins from 2007 are now going to completely evaporate in seats like Gimli, Brandon East, Dauphin, Interlake, etc. Do the Tories have a chance to win in these seats? Sure. Are they going to run the table? Doubtful. Again, at the risk of sounding like I have terminal Perimeteritis, I still firmly believe that if the Tories can't pick up more than seven seats in Winnipeg, they have no chance at forming a government.

 

 


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

ghoris wrote:
Yep, did hear about it. Guess he figures Sam is going to stick around for a while, otherwise he'd be laying the groundwork for a mayoral bid. Should be quite the battle in Seine River. Shows you how irrelevant the Manitoba Liberals have become that a former candidate and longtime member is defecting to the Tories

I've heard that the by-election is not going to be held until October. I suspect Katz is trying to keep the door open for Steeves to return to council if he's defeated.

ghoris wrote:
Some Tories seem to think that her departure makes Swan River a swing seat. It has been in the past, to be sure - Wowchuk barely held on in 1995 and at one point on election night she had been declared defeated. That being said, I believe the boundaries have shifted quite a bit further north since the 80s and 90s, and it's hard to believe the big margins of victory Wowchuk got in the last three elections were solely because of personal popularity.  Nonetheless, the Tories seem to think they have a real shot at a pickup here.

1995 was also a good year for the Filmon Tories in general, and wasn't Swan River one of the targeted ridings in the vote splitting scandal?

ghoris wrote:
Tory supporters like blogger Luc Lewandowski (Hacks & Wonks) are saying that the Tories can win six or new seven seats outside the Perimeter(!), meaning they only have to win as few as three in the city(!!!).  This ignores a few things: (1) the Tories lose a seat with the disappearance of Ste. Rose, (2) the Tories are vulnerable in some seats where their incumbents are retiring, namely Brandon West and Portage, and (3) it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that 20 point (or more) margins from 2007 are now going to completely evaporate in seats like Gimli, Brandon East, Dauphin, Interlake, etc. Do the Tories have a chance to win in these seats? Sure. Are they going to run the table? Doubtful. Again, at the risk of sounding like I have terminal Perimeteritis, I still firmly believe that if the Tories can't pick up more than seven seats in Winnipeg, they have no chance at forming a government.

There is another potential path, and that would be if the Conservatives had a reverse-Orange Crush type breakthrough in Northern Manitoba, but if that trend were possible, I'm quite sure the media would have picked up on it by now. At the very least, Tory bloggers would be talking about their northern momentum.


lil.Tommy
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Joined: Jun 3 2011

With Both Rosann and Bill retiring, are their any strong candidates that are looking to step up?

Elmwood, from an outsiders view, looks to be pretty safe aswell, could lil'Rebecca be eyeing that seat?

And here in Ontario, all those Liberals falling is a sign that the Grits are in real trouble; do manitobans see the retirement of a number of long time incumbants as a sign the NDP is in trouble? i've seen the polls and it looks like its close, advantage NDP... while here in ontario only a miracle could give the liberals a majority.


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