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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility?

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jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

lil.Tommy wrote:
and Bill retiring...

Guess I haven't had the radio on today. Didn't see that one coming.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/07/11/mb-blaikie-retire-polit...

 

What is going on with all these retirements? The next legislature is going to look quite a bit different.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Well, the NDP has been either the government or official opposition in Manitoba since the late 1960's.  Such an era is likely to produce a large group of extremely veteran MLA's, and what you're most likely seeing is a generational turnover occurring in conjunction with the transfer from one NDP premier to another.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I think its a good thing to have a lot of NDP old-timers with supersafe seats like Elmwood, Point Douglas etc...stepping down and making room for younger new faces. it sure beats the situation in Saskatchewan where the NDP has all this deadwood in their caucus sitting in safe seats in the cities that refuse to ever get out of the way.


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

jas wrote:
Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

You mean the Winnipeg Sun finally figured out that there is a world outside of the Perimiter Highway, and that world is under water? All I ever saw on the front pages of the Winnipeg Sun for the longest time was "JETS JETS JETS!"


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Uh this has been going on forever with the Sun; its just become more pronounced since the advent of the Sun Network and the Winnipeg Sun's content and cover has been more 'emotionally' consistent with what the Calgary and Toronto Sun are doing. I have noticed dozens of odious covers in the last few months. Their columnist Broadbeck is always going on about the NDP with the odd switch to saying the Tories are too soft on the NDP. All about changing the parameters of the context.

During the 90's when Cho!ces was active, most of that coalition laughed about the need for independent media save Jim Silver. Even some members of the anarko-coolist Mondragon restaurant would denounce the idea that the media had a bias. We are now dealing with the legacy of that attitude at least in part.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jas wrote:
Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

You mean the Winnipeg Sun finally figured out that there is a world outside of the Perimiter Highway, and that world is under water? All I ever saw on the front pages of the Winnipeg Sun for the longest time was "JETS JETS JETS!"


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

I remember the weekly Vancouver Courier went through a phase where every front page was a posed, staged photo illustrating some issue of the day (rather than just going out and getting a photo of an actual event.) It was highly annoying and looked incredibly amateur but I don't remember it being partisan one way or the other. Not sure if it's still doing this.


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Well today's Winnipeg Sun has a photo of Miss Manitoba in a two-piece swimsuit and a description says she is actually at this beach location but it sure looks photoshopped.

 

http://www.winnipegsun.com/subscribe

I could not find a bigger picture but even with this one there seems to be a dark line around her just like you seen on green screen tv effects.

I am waiting for them to take a shot of Greg Sellinger with a gun to the head of a dog the same way and claim it is real too.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

"Vote NDP or we'll shoot this dog"?

 


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5

  • Agassiz (CONS +59%): CONS-74%, NDP-15%, LIB-7%, GRN-3%
  • Arthur-Virden (CONS +55%): CONS-72%, NDP-17%, LIB-5%, GRN-5%
  • Assiniboia (CONS +31%): CONS-57%, NDP-26%, LIB-14%, GRN-3%
  • Brandon East (CONS +16%): CONS-52%, NDP-36%, LIB-6%, GRN-6%
  • Brandon West (CONS +26%): CONS-57%, NDP-31%, LIB-6%, GRN-6%
  • Burrows (NDP +6%): CONS-30%, NDP-37%, LIB-31%, GRN-2%
  • Charleswood (CONS +39%): CONS-58%, NDP-17%, LIB-20%, GRN-5%
  • Concordia (NDP +8%): CONS-42%, NDP-50%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Dauphin (CONS +30%): CONS-59%, NDP-30%, LIB-6%, GRN-5%
  • Dawson Trail (CONS +37%): CONS-62%, NDP-25%, LIB-8%, GRN-3%
  • Elmwood (NDP +10%): CONS-40%, NDP-50%, LIB-6%, GRN-4%
  • Emerson (CONS +63%): CONS-75%, NDP-12%, LIB-6%, GRN-5%
  • Flin Flon (NDP +11%): CONS-35%, NDP-46%, LIB-16%, GRN-3%
  • Fort Garry-Riverview (CONS +7%): CONS-37%, NDP-27%, LIB-31%, GRN-4%
  • Fort Richmond (CONS +10%): CONS-45%, NDP-17%, LIB-35%, GRN-2%
  • Fort Rouge (LIB +10%): CONS-28%, NDP-28%, LIB-38%, GRN-5%
  • Fort Whyte (CONS +26%): CONS-57%, NDP-9%, LIB-32%, GRN-2%
  • Gimli (CONS +35%): CONS-63%, NDP-29%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Interlake (CONS +27%): CONS-59%, NDP-32%, LIB-7%, GRN-2%
  • Kewatinook (NDP +33%): CONS-10%, NDP-61%, LIB-27%, GRN-2%
  • Kildonan (CONS +20%): CONS-54%, NDP-34%, LIB-9%, GRN-3%
  • Kirkfield Park (CONS +35%): CONS-56%, NDP-21%, LIB-19%, GRN-4%
  • La Verendrye (CONS +51%): CONS-70%, NDP-19%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Lac du Bonnet (CONS +38%): CONS-64%, NDP-26%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Lakeside (CONS +53%): CONS-73%, NDP-20%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Logan (NDP +26%): CONS-27%, NDP-53%, LIB-14%, GRN-5%
  • Midland (CONS +62%): CONS-72%, NDP-10%, LIB-9%, GRN-6%
  • Minto (NDP +28%): CONS-28%, NDP-56%, LIB-10%, GRN-6%
  • Morden-Winkler (CONS +76%): CONS-82%, NDP-6%, LIB-3%, GRN-6%
  • Morris (CONS +60%): CONS-74%, NDP-14%, LIB-7%, GRN-4%
  • Point Douglas (NDP +28%): CONS-23%, NDP-52%, LIB-21%, GRN-3%
  • Portage la Prairie (CONS +53%): CONS-70%, NDP-17%, LIB-7%, GRN-5%
  • Radisson (CONS +28%): CONS-55%, NDP-26%, LIB-17%, GRN-2%
  • Riding Mountain (CONS +43%): CONS-65%, NDP-23%, LIB-7%, GRN-5%
  • Riel (CONS +22%): CONS-50%, NDP-18%, LIB-28%, GRN-3%
  • River East (CONS +29%): CONS-59%, NDP-30%, LIB-7%, GRN-2%
  • River Heights (LIB +1%): CONS-40%, NDP-16%, LIB-41%, GRN-3%
  • Rossmere (CONS +16%): CONS-54%, NDP-37%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • Seine River (CONS +27%): CONS-54%, NDP-17%, LIB-27%, GRN-2%
  • Selkirk (CONS +28%): CONS-60%, NDP-32%, LIB-4%, GRN-4%
  • Southdale (CONS +34%): CONS-60%, NDP-12%, LIB-26%, GRN-2%
  • Spruce Woods (CONS +50%): CONS-71%, NDP-20%, LIB-4%, GRN-5%
  • St. Boniface (LIB +6%): CONS-36%, NDP-19%, LIB-42%, GRN-4%
  • St. James (CONS +11%): CONS-46%, NDP-35%, LIB-14%, GRN-5%
  • St. Johns (NDP +8%): CONS-38%, NDP-47%, LIB-10%, GRN-4%
  • St. Norbert (CONS +19%): CONS-51%, NDP-14%, LIB-33%, GRN-2%
  • St. Paul (CONS +44%): CONS-67%, NDP-23%, LIB-6%, GRN-3%
  • St. Vital (CONS +25%): CONS-50%, NDP-22%, LIB-24%, GRN-3%
  • Steinbach (CONS +73%): CONS-82%, NDP-9%, LIB-4%, GRN-2%
  • Swan River (CONS +25%): CONS-58%, NDP-34%, LIB-5%, GRN-3%
  • The Maples (LIB +5%): CONS-33%, NDP-29%, LIB-37%, GRN-1%
  • The Pas (NDP +33%): CONS-22%, NDP-55%, LIB-22%, GRN-2%
  • Thompson (NDP +12%): CONS-36%, NDP-48%, LIB-14%, GRN-2%
  • Transcona (CONS +5%): CONS-49%, NDP-45%, LIB-4%, GRN-3%
  • Tuxedo (CONS +26%): CONS-54%, NDP-15%, LIB-28%, GRN-3%
  • Tyndall Park (LIB +5%): CONS-29%, NDP-32%, LIB-37%, GRN-2%
  • Wolseley (NDP +42%): CONS-18%, NDP-60%, LIB-10%, GRN-11%

genstrike
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Joined: May 1 2008

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5



It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

genstrike wrote:

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5



It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.


They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

genstrike wrote:

Krago wrote:

For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5



It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.


They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

lil.Tommy
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Joined: Jun 3 2011

Stockholm wrote:

I think its a good thing to have a lot of NDP old-timers with supersafe seats like Elmwood, Point Douglas etc...stepping down and making room for younger new faces. it sure beats the situation in Saskatchewan where the NDP has all this deadwood in their caucus sitting in safe seats in the cities that refuse to ever get out of the way.

 

I don't disagree AT ALL ... but i am excited to see Jamie Garcia in Reginga Coronation Park, but i don't know if Cathy Sproule would be considered "New Blood" in Saskatoon Nutana?


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

Aristotleded24 wrote:

genstrike wrote:
Krago wrote:
For what it's worth, if you transpose the votes from the recent federal election onto the new 57 Manitoba provincial riding boundaries, the results would be: CONS 40, NDP 12, LIB 5


It is worth absolutely nothing though, because voting patterns are completely different in Manitoba provincially and federally. Transpose the voting patterns from the last provincial election to federal boundaries, and the NDP would probably win every single seat in Winnipeg.


They'd also win Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, and possibly Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
The 2007 Manitoba provincial results transposed onto the federal ridings would produce 10 wins for the NDP and 4 wins for the Tories.
  • Brandon--Souris (PC +11%): NDP-41%, PC-52%, LIB-6%, GRN-1%, OTH-0%
  • Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia (NDP +6%): NDP-47%, PC-41%, LIB-11%, GRN-1%
  • Churchill (NDP +53%): NDP-70%, PC-17%, LIB-12%
  • Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette (PC +8%): NDP-43%, PC-51%, LIB-6%, GRN-0%, OTH-0%
  • Elmwood--Transcona (NDP +39%): NDP-64%, PC-25%, LIB-10%, GRN-1%
  • Kildonan--St. Paul (NDP +17%): NDP-53%, PC-37%, LIB-9%, GRN-1%
  • Portage--Lisgar (PC +37%): NDP-25%, PC-62%, LIB-12%
  • Provencher (PC +27%): NDP-31%, PC-58%, LIB-9%, GRN-1%, OTH-1%
  • Saint Boniface (NDP +31%): NDP-59%, PC-28%, LIB-11%, GRN-3%, OTH-0%
  • Selkirk--Interlake (NDP +8%): NDP-50%, PC-42%, LIB-7%, GRN-1%
  • Winnipeg Centre (NDP +43%): NDP-60%, PC-14%, LIB-17%, GRN-5%, OTH-4%
  • Winnipeg North (NDP +31%): NDP-56%, PC-17%, LIB-25%, GRN-1%, OTH-0%
  • Winnipeg South (NDP +11%): NDP-48%, PC-37%, LIB-14%, GRN-0%
  • Winnipeg South Centre (NDP +10%): NDP-40%, PC-24%, LIB-30%, GRN-5%, OTH-0%

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

What I would really like to know is what the results of the 2007 Manitoba election would have been on the new map to be used this year!


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002
I'm not able to give you those (someone has already paid me to do the work), but I can give you these:

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

This is great - can you do these "before and after" maps for the rest of the province as well?


Vansterdam Kid
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Joined: Apr 15 2004

Krago, you're a machine. Again, thanks for these maps!


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

So here are the seats I think each party should target:

NDP:

  • Brandon West
  • River East
  • Portage la Prairie
  • Lac du Bonnet
  • Morden-Winkler
  • Tyndall Park*

PCs:

  • Brandon East
  • Swan River
  • Dauphin
  • La Verendrye
  • Riverheights
  • Gimli
  • Interlake
  • Dawson Trail
  • Selkirk
  • Assiniboia
  • Kirkfield Park
  • St. James
  • Fort Richmond
  • Riel
  • Rossmere
  • Seine River
  • Southdale
  • St. Norbert
  • St. Vital

Liberals

  • The Maples
  • Fort Rouge
  • Fort Garry-Riverview

* Tyndall Park most closely resembles the former Inkster constituency, which was held by Liberal Kevin Lameroux, so for the purposes of this exercise I consider Tyndall Park an incumbent Liberal seat, notwithstanding the fact that the seat remains vacant due to the expected general election.


The Analyst
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Joined: Aug 7 2011

genstrike wrote:

For what it's worth, I've talked to Ashton a few times and I've never found him personally unpleasant.

I lived in Thompson for a few years and generally found Steve Ashton to be quite affable.


The Analyst
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Joined: Aug 7 2011

jas wrote:

Anyone notice the recent cover stories of the Winnipeg Sun against the provincial NDP?

A few days ago, full front page photo of Greg Selinger with piles of $100 dollar bills photoshopped coming out of all his pockets.

Today's cover was a posed photograph of a woman standing with duct tape over her mouth and holding a picture of a flood-hit home. The headline was something about someone, or apparently people, being "Gagged" from talking about how the NDP has handled the flood situation. (Um, weren't they just criticizing Selinger for spending too much??)

Talk about yellow journalism. (I don't think that's a racist term.) I don't think I've ever seen anything so blatantly and sensationally partisan attempting to pass as news by a city daily.

 

The Winnipeg Sun, like all of Canada's Trash Tabloid Sun papers, is modelled after the UK Sun.

And here's some info on what that fine publication has done in the past:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)#The_1980s


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

What about voter suppression? There was an article somewhere either here or Canadian Dimension about voter suppression in the last federal election; I remember  that locally we were getting calls from somewhere in North Dakota and I wonder if that will happen again in the provinicial election. Stuff recently happened in Wisconsin and it might be the same group. What will the local unions do to prevent that? They have been advertising more heavily lately but will they develop a strategy to counter whatever dirty tricks are upcoming? Better yet hire some private detectives to track down the stuff and videotape for ads warning of what is going on.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

A couple of developments I want to comment on:

In South Winnipeg, an NDP candidate has been barred from running for nomination. Apparently the excuse given by the Executive is that Mangat used to be a Liberal. Apparently Mangat supported Ashton over Selinger for the leadership, so some are speculating that this decision is payback.

Next we have the PC Platform, or as I like to call it, "A Beginner's Look At Bungling An Election That Was Yours To Win." Manitoba is currently in a deficit position, and the Economic Action Plan that the NDP rolled out and is currently implementing has the deficit eliminated by 2014. The PCs have been vocal in opposing the deficit measures and have previously insisted on balancing budgets year over year. Well, they suddenly went back on that platform plank, and said their plan will now take four years longer to bring the province's books out of red ink. Apparently it's designed to quell fears that a PC government would implement severe cuts to social spending a-la Mike Harris. I've long been critical of this government campaigning against the former Filmon government in each election, but this PC platform tells me that those fears are resonating beyond NDP partisans.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Interesting. Cris Aglugub, former NDP MLA for The Maples (1999-2007) has been nominated by the Tories to run in Tyndall Park. Aglugub was defeated for the nomination in 2007 by the sitting MLA, Mohinder Saran. More interestingly, the man that Aglugub beat to win the nomination in The Maples in 1999, Kaur Sidhu, is also running for the Tories in Rossmere. Sidhu attempted a comeback in 2007 but complained he was 'muscled out' by the chief of staff to then-Premier Doer, Michael Balagus. Even more interestingly, Balagus was accused of having pressured Mangat to drop out of the St. Norbert race too.

(ETA: Lest I sound like I am ragging on the 'party brass' here, I will just say this - there is always a lot more to these riding nomination shenanigans than meets the eye.)


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

PC candidate Gord Steeves might have made the Tories slightly vulnerable here:

 

"The Manitoba Tories are distancing themselves from comments made by one of their star candidates. Tory candidate Gord Steeves said during a televised interview in May that he believed automobile insurance in Manitoba should be provided by the private sector, not government."

 

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2011/08/29/privatize-auto-insurance-steeves-h...

The question is whether the NDP will have the acumen to nail it right or will they drop the ball. If Donne Flanagan will still alive, the former NDP communications guru, would have known exactly how to skewer the Tories but that is not the case. Luckily for the Tories (or not luck, but by crook) the Sun has put this in the leadup to a summer long weekend so it might not get the attention it deserves. Many, many people take this entire last week off and therefore the story may fade completely.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. Plays right into the NDP's "Hugh has a hidden agenda to sell Hydro" line. What's more, it's just plain dumb from both a policy and political perspective. We can have an argument about the merits of privatizing MTS, hell someone could probably even make a case for privatizing Hydro that might persuade a few people. But I'll guarantee you there is not a single solitary Manitoban who actually believes their insurance rates wouldn't skyrocket if we got rid of Autopac.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

ghoris wrote:

Interesting. Cris Aglugub, former NDP MLA for The Maples (1999-2007) has been nominated by the Tories to run in Tyndall Park. Aglugub was defeated for the nomination in 2007 by the sitting MLA, Mohinder Saran. More interestingly, the man that Aglugub beat to win the nomination in The Maples in 1999, Kaur Sidhu, is also running for the Tories in Rossmere. Sidhu attempted a comeback in 2007 but complained he was 'muscled out' by the chief of staff to then-Premier Doer, Michael Balagus. Even more interestingly, Balagus was accused of having pressured Mangat to drop out of the St. Norbert race too.

(ETA: Lest I sound like I am ragging on the 'party brass' here, I will just say this - there is always a lot more to these riding nomination shenanigans than meets the eye.)

Say what you want about the party brass, but when I see that two people who were maneuvered out of NDP nominations are now only too happy to run for the rabidly rightwing Tories, it tells me that the NDP has dodged a bullet by not having these people as candidates. Do you really want NDP MLAs who think that running for the PC instead of the NDP is no different from quitting a job at CIBC to take one at the Royal Bank?

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
Say what you want about the party brass, but when I see that two people who were maneuvered out of NDP nominations are now only too happy to run for the rabidly rightwing Tories, it tells me that the NDP has dodged a bullet by not having these people as candidates. Do you really want NDP MLAs who think that running for the PC instead of the NDP is no different from quitting a job at CIBC to take one at the Royal Bank?

I don't, but that's a decision for the NDP members in the local communities to make, and I'd like to have a bit more confidence in local associations than what you have displayed.

But it's funny, because in Brandon, the opposite has happened. The NDP was looking for someone to run in Brandon West. Several names were floated as possibilities, including former school trustee George Buri. Instead, the party brass packed the process so that Jim Murray would be acclaimed. Who is Jim Murray? He is a right-wing school trustee who almost everyone in Brandon would say would be a better fit with the PCs, and now Buri is running for the Liberals. So you can't have it both ways.

The brass really needs to trust the local members a great deal more. The party deserves a rebuke for these shenanigans.


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