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NDP leadership thread - part 1 of many
August 27, 2011 - 11:51am
For those who want to discuss it. Feel free to avoid this thread if you are not ready.
I can't deny that I've been thinking about this...but I'll withhold until after the funeral today.
They just showed Rockburn covering the 2003 leadership race. Was it ever amazing! Layton looks like such a genius now. Everything he was saying came true and will come true.
Watching the state funeral for Jack Layton - no one can make the Conservatives squirm like Stephen Lewis! I wish he'd return to politics.
Boy he really gave er didn't he?
Although I wished someone would have thanked Harper personally for this honour, knowing how hard it must be for them to sit through this.
The Rev. Brent Hawkes is an amazing speaker. Stephen Page was great, too - I've never seen him perform solo before. Harper looked really uncomfortable through all this.
Sunday.
I'd much rather see Stephen Lewis run in the Danforth byelection than Brian Topp.
The funeral coverage will hopefully have been seen by the entire country, and the inspiring words of Stephen Lewis - and others - have the potential to make this start of a historic movement for progressive change. I sincerely hope the NDP seizes the opportunity.
For those who say 'Sunday'
I look forward to your contributions tomorrow.
Page was great, I thought. He was a little shaky in certain parts but there were some parts that he sang just amazingly. That's such a beautiful song that's had so many great renditions. Obviously the original Leonard Cohen version but I love Jeff Buckley's version and I thought that KD Lang nailed it when she sang it at the opening ceremonies of the Olympics.
And Rufus Wainwright did an amazing rendition as well - in the Leonard Cohen tribute movie I think.
Peter Tabuns- Could run for NDP federally in Layton's riding, he's currently an mpp in Toronto Danforth. Former City councillor and head of Greenpeace Canada. Backed by Ed Broadbent in ondp's leadership election. Not sure if he speaks French.
Brian Topp- A true moderate, a brilliant stratagist, and fluently bilingual. Doesn't hold a seat in the house. Biggest problem is being a David Lewis. No matter how brillant he is, I worry over the formation of a waffle that nearly crushed the NDP last time. That is if Brian Topp is well known for silencing radical opinions(I may be mixing him with Brad) I'm not sure how charismatic he is. Union background is great for progressives, but will be used against him by the cons.
Stephen Lewis- brilliant in English, but not known for speaking French. If he could only speak the way he does in English in French. Charisma is the #1 trait im looking for in a leader. Hes a bit old(I think a while back when he ran for leadership he was considered young)
Gary Doer- Too centre to hold party together, not known for French, but a nice popularity rating in Mantioba and widely respected there. Reportedly doesn't want to run. Would make a great deputy/finance minister in order to quell fear spread by the tories.
Libby Davies- Smart and a true progressive, but too left to appeal to all of Canada and lack of French.
Thomas Mulcair- Brilliant, Intelligent, highly capable of building on Quebec. Would help increase membership in QC. Problem? He's the opposite of Jack. He has a short fuse that could burst at any minute. Fluently Bilingual. Leans centre and fights with the more left leaning wing. He fights as opposed to negociate as I've heard.
Mike or Sarah Layton- Many political parties have great linages, aside of their eulogies (which were good), they are a bit young.
Anne Mcgrath- Chief of Staff to Jack Layton, I believe she is fluently bilingual. Only problem is that she ran as a communist canidate in Alberta which the media will have a field day with.
What do you guys think about Karl Belanger? I think he's fluently bilingual.
Peter Julian- fluently Bilingual, progressive. Executive Director of Council of Canadians(I'm not sure what he did there/ what he approved there, it may come back to haunt him if the tories dig something up about him campaigning against something that never happened but anyways I think its great that he was there). United Church of Canada member.
Paul Dewar - Very modern, doesn't run into controversy. That being said, some activists on the far left may try to stir some shit up. Bilingual. Tv friendly, but he looks very very timid.
What about Charlie Angus? It'd be nice to see a rural leader. Some other mps include...
Don Davies?
Bruce Hyer? Ecologist, small buisness owner. No idea if he speaks french.
Matthew Kellway - New mp in east york but he is an economist.
Jack Harris- former ndp nfld leader. Smart, progressive. Unknown if he is bilingual
Jamie Nicholls I think is bilingual, from QC
Dennis Bevington- I think he's bilingual, a buisnessman. From NWT
Is linda Duncan bilingual?
John Rafferty- (another buisness owner)
Kennedy Stewart (phd in economics, from london school of economics)
Guy Caron(Qc) - economist, worked in unions, council of canadians.
The reason I'm bringing up economists/buisness owners is because the tories will try to paint the NDP as fiscally incapable(which we all know is false, the NDP is the best at balancing budgets, and we all know about the strength of the Nordic Model in Scandinavia)
What my requirements are->
1. Charisma
2.Progressive yet pragmatic aka the social ideals of the CCF mixed with the economic pragmatism of today's modern social democratic parties.
3. fluently Bilingual
4. Able to control factions
5. Ability to grow party membership and reach out to all canadian social democrats to join in. Make us a big progressive tent party.
6. strategic focus
I could get really excited about Roméo Saganash. I don't know enough about him but here is what I like:
1) He is perfectly fluent in French and English (and two FN languages)
2) He comes across as a nice guy, with some charisma
3) He has tonnes of political experience as an elected official and spokesperson with the Québec Cree
4) He knows a lot of practical things about the economy as a key negotiator on many natural resource development files and has run his own businesses
5) He would be very difficult for the Tories to attack (a likeable visible minority success story?)
6) If he were able to inspire people, he could become like a Canadian Obama, the analogy would not be so far flung
7) He strikes me as a leftist, but a practical one, just like Jack; which might help to keep the party together
My default choice is Mulcair, IMHO he is hands down the best "known" quantity the NDP has right now, but I would be interested in learning more about Saganash, who hasn't received the same national level scrutiny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FXNinmUY8k
Does anyone have any English video of him?
He has a two-year-old son. If the last election had been two years ago, would he even have run? How would he and his wife feel about family priorities and a leadership bid?
But as Jack said:
Caron has a weakness in that he represents Rimouski but hasn't lived there in years (he lives in Gatineau)- IF I am not mistaken. In the last campaign, local mayors were writing to the newspapers complaining that he wasn't campaigning (surely an exaggeration). For many years now Caron has been a "name-on-ballot" in Québec, appearing on the ballot four times and typically receiving 7-10%
He also has no profile, either inside or out of Québec. That being said, he is one of the caucus's great hopes.
I read that he has set up a Rimouski residence; He, Valerie and Dominic will live there whenever they can, he said. This in turn will depend on Valerie's job; she has a contract, he said.
I'm a bit confused - didn't Layton himself suggest January for the leadership convention? If so, that's four months away. Is this debate going to on that long?
I wonder if the performance of NDP members in the House will be under intense scrutiny when Parliament resumes with the purpose being to see obvious candidates who really stand out - we already know who they are from previous House sittings and elections, but there could be outstanding candidates especially from the new Quebec contingent as well. The party has to work with what it has, but, darn, I wish Pierre Ducasse was one of those new Quebec MPs! He would be a natural.
To make full disclosure right off the bat I am strongly inclined to support Thomas Mulcair. I will list a few reasons here and will look forward to participaing in this debate further.
1. The party must consolidate its hold on Quebec. Mulcair is the obvious choice to accomplish this. I think he may be able to extinguish the lingering Liberal hold on the West Island in particular. Although Jack was mostly responsible for the Quebec breakthrough we should not underestimate Mulcair's role. Dianne Ablonszy (sp?) congratulated Jack on the Quebec result and he magnanimously said"I had a great Quebec lieutenant." Let's not forget this.
2. The next election will be the best chance the NDP has ever had to take power. We should not blow this chance by giving in to the the old NDP propensity to be ideologically pure and play identity politics. We should all remember what happened when we picked Audrey McLaughlin for similar reasons. I think Mulcair offers us our best shot at power. He may be a lapsed Liberal and that may eliminate him in the eyes of some. But he is our best prospect to consolidate the progressive vote, partly because of his Liberal background. As Mike Layton quoted his father, you make the best with what you have at hand.
3. If Mulcair runs he is likely to have near unanimous support from Quebec. The mathematics of the leadership leave him at a distinct disadvantage. The unions (with whom he has no particular ties) have a guaranteed 25%. The rest is a one member one vote system. The Quebec membership has always ben very low although I expect it has recently grown. Saskatchewan, on the other hand has always had a high membership, sometimes even greater than Ontario in years past. So we may have the anomaly that Saskatchewan with no NDP MPs has a greater say in the leadership vote than Quebec which has almost 60% of the caucus. If Mulcair is defeated in this landscape it will inevitably be seen as a repudiation of Quebec.
4. I have only seen Mulcair on television, as have almost all Canadians. He is formidably smart and forceful, in my view a formidable political talent. The Conservatives obviously fear him in Question Period. The point has been made that Mulcair does not have Jack's sunny image of conciliation. It will be a grave mistake to look to find a duplicate of Jack because we will never find him. We can expect of a certainty that whoever we pick as the next leader will be met with a massive Conservative ad campaign to define his or her image pejoratively like they did Dion and Ignatieff. Jack was able to escape this because he came in under the radar until the last couple of weeks of the last campaign. He had also been around long enough to define his own image. As the best known of the contenders, especially in Quebec, Mulcair may be best able to weather this inevitable storm. I also think that unlike the last two hapless Liberal leaders Mulcair has the sheer political talent to counterpunch his way out of the Conservative attempt to kneecap him from the outset.
So there are some preliminary thoughts. I am sure there will be much more to consider as the campaign progresses and I look forward to what my fellow Babblers will contribute.
Please note that the votes of Saskatchewan NDPers were what put Jack over the top on the first ballot in 2003, even though he was criticized by some as being a Toronto candidate or too slick and urban. A candidate who is willing to do what Jack did in the run up to the leadership vote, which was to go around the country and meet the NDP members in different regions, listening to their concerns, should be able to win the same support. In fact, if he or she can't win support from the different regions, then that would be a demonstrable weakness which would cause legitimate questions about that person.
great post, Nicky:
and remember, winning Outremont (I lived there when it swung Tory in 1988, after a century-plus being pure Liberal) was the spark for that whole election swing -- a big riding in the big city set the tone for a breakthrough later
How is Olivia Chow's french?
Think about it!
The widow of Jack Layton, who's name would resonate with Quebec voters in 2015. (Shades of Cory Aquino in the Phillipines?)
A 'visible minority' leader, in a country that is rapidly becoming more and more culturally diversified in it's population.
A female politician, with parliamentary experience.
Olivia would be my first choice!
Thomas Mulcair is my top choice. What I don't know is whether he is a good leader of people.
The whole thing about Brian Topp bothers me. Topp has been writing for G&M I believe, and I'm sure the media people know him. But the average voter does not know him. Why then is the media crowning him as one of the "top contenders"? He has never been tested as a candidate (and with apology to ACTRA members I don't count your internal votes as "elections".)
Boom Boom & the grey: Layton didn't suggest a particular time, but rather as soon as possible in the new year.
Not about the leadership, but a sincere prayer nonetheless:
Lord, if it be your will, please tell Brent Hawkes to run in Toronto Centre.