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He wrote "I recommend the party hold a leadership vote as early as possible in the New Year, on approximately the same timelines as in 2003." That was January 25, 2003.
Good summary of the case for Mulcair. Is he in fact a lapsed Liberal, federally? I don't know what party he voted for in 2004, but I have always read that he was not active in any federal party. Does anyone know? A search of political donation records would be helpful. As for his image being forceful (as was Jack) but not as sunny, I think he is a very capable performer who could turn on his sunny side as effectively as his irascible side, if he wanted to. You might have added one more point. What's the rush? January is in fact the earliest possible date, due to political donation limits. In fact campaign organizers will have trouble collecting money, since many people will need to give pledges or post-dated cheques for January 1 if they gave their limit in 2010. We have, after all, three years. The Liberals are waiting for contenders to emerge. Was Jack saying, in effect, "Mulcair's ready, Charlie Angus is hot, and if anyone else wants to run they can jump in fast. Let's go."
What about international issues? Mulcair is sweet on Israel (because of his riding?). What about militarism? Canadian mining? Free trade?
And Topp? And Caron (my favourite)?
Is there a summary anywhere of potential candidates' positions?
It would be very helpful.
Given your list I would suggest Bob Rae as the new NDP leader. He might just be pragmatic enough to know it is his only chance at the brass ring he has been chasing. He has always promoted the concept of a big progressive tent party.
Denise Savoie and Nathan Cullen would be good candidates but since they are not from Upper or Lower Canada they do not have the "national" profile.
Strategically, I am leaning towards Mulcair as well. I think he would sell a gazillion memberships in Quebec and the NDP would be entrenched there forever. I think the new leader has to come from Quebec. That is where we need to build out of. Sure Mulcair is scary and that is a good thing. We don't want someone trying to be JACK2.0. The only knock on Mulcair will be his bin Laden comments (which I thought was awesome!) but I don't think a little suspicion of the Americans is such bad thing for a modern Canadian PM. He is super-charismatic, brilliant, perfectly bilingual.
But I don't know much about him. I think his stances require serious scrutiny. No one can accuse him of being a seperatist. Keep Libby Davies Deputy leader to balance out the left-right east-west balance.
The big question is whether he can appeal to the west. The media will be all over us about Quebec, so who knows?
Sorry, I was thinking of delegate fees. January is fine, to avoid people giving more than the limit in 2011.
None of my opinions are set in stone at this point, and I hope there is an active campaign that allows a full exploration of a wide range of possible candidates.
If there is one name less often floated by pundits I would like to see actively explored right now, it would be Charlie Angus. He brings a very interesting package - represents a rural northern riding, but his history as a musician in Toronto also offers a more urban appeal. At 48, he would present a youthful energetic contrast to the other party leaders. I'm under the impression that he is fluently bilingual - and that his upbringing in a bilingual northern Ontario town means that it a very natural comfortable bilingualism, not the kind of classroom French that we sometimes see in national political figures .
He has been quite impressive in his work as critic on digital issues and now on ethics. He's done some great work on aboriginal issues. He's been an MP since 2004, so he's not an untested newbie. He's smart, good in the media, and can give a decent speech. He has solid ties to labour (representing a pretty heavily unionized area and growing up in a northern mining town). My sense is that he may be the kind of leader who could span the various tendencies within the party - labour, environmentalists, cultural progressives, urban, rural, youth, Québec, ROC, etc and that he could campaign credibly in every part of the country.
Not being an Ottawa or party insider, I'm not familiar with what his potential drawbacks may be, but I've been impressed with what I see.
I like the suggestions from people here of both Roméo Saganash and Guy Caron. Their biggest drawbacks seem to be that they are both first term MPs, and that limited experience would be a drawback.
I've seen Caron in action a little bit over the years, and think he could have what it takes - while not extremely charismatic, he is earnest and serious without being a boring wonk, he is very comfortable and effective in both languages, and he has good group leadership and consensus building skills.
My familiarity with Saganash is much more limited, restricted to media coverage of his activities over the years. He is truly impressive and has great potential for leadership - if not as party leader now, certainly in a high profile senior critic/cabinet role. The one area where I think he would need to work is to reign in some of what comes across as a free-wheeling, casual style and come across as more focused and more like a potential PM. (And yes, I fully understand that he DOES have a record of serious accomplishments as the results of his focus and hard work, and that there are cultural issues about dress and leadership styles that play into this - I am simply trying to imagine how he would play in a national campaign). But he is clearly charismatic, has a great story, is extremely smart, meets the linguistic test, and would present a bold exciting image to the country.
There are lots of other names that should be considered - Peggy Nash is bilingual, has great labour ties, and clearly has the policy and political chops to do this. At 60, she is about at the upper age limit I'd like to see in a new leader. I've been impressed with Hélène Laverdière and wonder if she has leadership potential. Peter Julian clearly is interested and interesting, and a bilingual BC leader with significant history in Québec has lots of political potential. His identification with social movements and the generic "left" might not thrill some of the more traditional labour and Prairie base of the party, but he might have the skills to overcome those issues.
Finally, I have my doubts about either Thomas Mulcair or Brian Topp that make me seriously wonder if they are the right candidate at the right time.
Mulcair's was my MP until a move last month, and there is a lot I like about him. Yet I have serious qualms about making someone leader who joined the party 4 years ago, who considered an offer to run for the Conservatives instead, and who was part of Charest's government. My first preference in terms of party leader would be to see someone who is more steeped in the history and core beliefs of the NDP, and I have yet to be convinced that Mulcair gets that part of the deal -- and as a result, I am fearful about exactly how much he would be willing to trade off in exchange for what he perceives as a shot at power. Is Mulcair a socialist, a social democrat, a progressive, or even a small l liberal? He can be a little mercurial in his behaviours and my sense is that he isn't great at inclusive leadership and building consensus - much more of a "my way or the highway" kind of guy. And he is known to commit the kind of gaffe that could be damaging in opposition or in a campaign. That all said, the guy is a skilled political operative and he may have the package that would be needed to carry the party forward.
My experience of Brian Topp is more limited -- I knew him back at McGill 30+ years ago, and other than a few interactions with him working on the Phil Edmonston campaign 20 years ago, haven't seen him in person since. Like others, I wonder if he could successfully make the transition from back room strategist to party leader, and it isn't clear to me what his core political values or policy positions are. That said, he is clearly someone with a life-long commitment to the NDP, a very smart political strategist, and his history of campaign work in different parts of the country is a real plus. My visceral reaction to the idea of party insiders attempting to install another unelected insider as leader is partially balanced by the fact that clearly he had the complete trust of Jack, and that no one can question Brian's political smarts or his NDP bona fides.
At least in the early stages of the campaign, I hope that we see a wide open consideration of the real pool of talent that the party has, and that a full range of potential candidates are seriously looked at, lots of names I haven't mentioned -- including folks from outside of current MPs, women, visible minorities, younger candidates, and folks across a full geographic and ideological range. I hope that honest examination of leadership options takes place before the party coalesces around a single candidate or a couple of candidates.
Lol i don't think my requirements lead to Bob Rae. Why would the NDP ever take him back? He is the reason the party suffers/is feared in Ontario. I don't think he's charismatic or has the societal ideals of old CCF'ers like MJ Coldwell. Some people who vote liberal are progressive, Look to people like Jean Lesage in QC as an example of this. Lets capture whats left of the "liberal left" and rename them into centre-leaning social democrats. Better to be a centre-leaning social democrat than a liberal. Alot of the voters in canada can be described as "Soft liberals", why shouldn't we try to capture their vote and relabel/lead them to a truely progressive party.
I also think that Layton's deputy structure should remain. If someone centre leaning is elected as leader, than he/she must have 2 deputies that lean left. Vice-Versa, in order to stop any infighting. Althrough I highly prefer someone in the middle of the party, much like Layton and Broadbent.
I'd also like to see where they stand. In the UK, leadership canidates wrote fabian essays. I highly suggest they do this in here in Canada. http://www.fabians.org.uk/publications/extracts/the-labour-leadership-es...
http://thechronicleherald.ca/TheNovaScotian/1260538.html
An open spirited leadership race would be good for the party. Candidates should run for more than one reason: to represent their ideas, or solidify their standing in the party, as well as to win.
My preference would be to see a range of opinions expressed; this necessitates a variety of candidates. In order to sign up members, and win support, an NDP leadership candidate has to convince people they have something substantive to offer Canada. I would hate to see a coronation.
The divisions within the party about where we need to go as a country need to be regularly aired in public debate so as to give a sense of direction to the parliamentary wing.
What makes an open race important is the winning candidate is going to have to garner support and gain the trust of the party base, its grass (and net) roots.
The world economic crisis is real. Being able to think big thoughts about how to transform how we do things in Canada should be an important part of what candidates offer the party membership as a vision for the future under their leadership.
" My bet is Mr. Mulcair, as his televisual personality often portrays, has no interest in anything that doesn't benefit Thomas Mulcair. NDP support of a budget means a longer wait for Mr. Mulcair to have a title shot. Patience doesn't seem to be his strong suit. "(Tim Powers, G and M, March 2011) That's my perception of Thomas Mulcair too. Pompous, abrasive, self-aggrandizing, 'socialist' or social democrat in name only but not in his heart imo, divisive of cultures (Quebec vs the west) and genders.
Let's hope the NDP can do better.I think that whole "Mulcair is trying to undermine Layton by pushing for an early election" story line was always total bullshit. Its now pretty common knowledge that Jack and those around him made up their minds that they wanted an Spring election long before the budget was presented. If Mulcair made some sabre-rattling comments about bringing down the government - it was 100% part of an intentional strategy by Jack to send out mixed signals about the NDP's intentions.
There may be legitimate things to criticize about Mulcair - but that absurd media fantasy narrative that he was somehow undermining Jack when he talked about the looming budget vote is total CRAP. There is a reason why Mulcair snapped at Brian Lilley when he was asked about that - Mulcair and Layton were very close friends and I think Mulcair was genuinely offended that anyone would think that he was cynically pushing Layton into an election Layton didn't want to advance his own ambitions and then have to answer a "when did you stop beating your wife?"-type question.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF4EhSVCHHQ
Can we keep the regional antagonisms to a minimum? Much of the NDP membership is in the West, so that is profile enough for a Western contender. As people have noted it is often membership from the West that puts candidates from the East over the top (against Western competitors). Similarly, I would be absolutely shocked if the membership elected anyone leader who wasn't bilingual. I expect every candidate in this race will have good French and English. Lastly, have some faith in NDP members, they are smarter than Liberals
I wondered about that myself but I'm told that his French actually not all that good.
Last time I heard Charlie Angus speak French (several years ago in QP), it was quite weak but at least he had it. The same goes for Nathan Cullen. They may have improved since, but at the time I heard them, they did not have the French to be leader. Both of them are great MPs.
Never in public? I could have sworn that I watched her appear on Tout le monde en parle with Jack. That said, I agree that her comfort level in French is low.
So let me get this straight - you are saying we shoudl shy away from Thomas Mulcair as leader because a CONSERVATIVE spin-doctor tried to cast aspersions on his motives in a panel discussion??? So, are you saying that we need to ask Tim Powers whether or not he approves of each prospective candidate for the NDP leadership?
BTW: I know an MP who fits the bill in many ways - at least in terms of being a good person to have in the race - Nikki Ashton. She speaks five languages fluently (her French is actually quite impeccable), she is 29, a woman (obviously), from a remote riding in Manitoba with a very large FN population. I don't know that I see her as a winner - but she would make a good addition to the field.
First of all, sorry for my English ;)
Thomas Mulcair. Being from Quebec and having work closely with him when we was in the Liberal cabinet, I can tell how much this man is brilliant and a strong strategist. I always felt and I got some tips that he was a more progressive voice than the average Quebec Liberal cabinet member back then. But at the same time, Thomas was known for having a short temper and little to none patience. He is a strong debater and every single time he is debating on tv, he nails it all the time. He is the second best known NPD member in Quebec (just next to Jack) and a lot of people remembers that he standed tall in front of a Jean Charest premier who was unpopular and not listening to the Quebec population will at that time...
I really don't understand the buzz around Brian Topp. Yes he is a strong strategist, would follow in Jack tradition and he is perfectly bilingual, but having seen him on tv a fee times, I feel like he is missing some charisma and he has no parlimantary experience. Having seen her lots of time on tv over the last week, I get the feeling Anne McGrath could be a stronger voice and a more charismatic person for the role than him. Am I the only one?
Olivia Chow has always been one of my favorite NDP member. There is no question about her values and where she stands for social justice. The fact she is Jack Layton widow could help passing Jack legacy message and goals. Her lack of French is not helping though and sorry, but I think as much as she can get support from being Jack's widow, she might also suffers from the comparaison (that applies to all candidates who will run, but a little bit more IMO to Olivia for that reason).
Peter Julian sounds like an interesting choice: he is smart and charismatic, perfectly bilingual (maybe one if not the most bilingual NDP MP with Peggy Nash) but looking at his resume, I feel like the man is leaning a little bit too much on the left. I really think we must not seek another for Jack Layton 2.0, but one thing for sure, we have to keep the party far from a total lefty ideological one and keep the pragmatic approach with some a little more centered elements in our platform.
Peggy Nash could be a strong candidate: perfectly bilingual, smart, strong support with the unions and women. We totally know where she stands on a lot of issue and she seems like a moderate but definately progressive voice. I would be really interested to see her running for the leadership.
Megan Leslie could be a really nice surprise. She is one of he most inspiring speaker in the house, has the same let's work together approach that Jack has. I don't think her experience is strong enough and even if I think she could consolidate the NPD support, I don't know if she could help it grow more and be seeing as a potential premier.
Other candidates from Quebec: There are not a lot. Guy Caron is for sure one of the strongest new asset in the party. But I feel it's a little bit premature to judge his full potential. Hélène Laverdière is another really strong new MP with a strong background and a real potential cabinet member in a future NDP government, but knowing her personnaly, she has no leadership goal. Roméo Saganash could have be a really good choice, he is a strong negociator, has a really inclusive approach, but he is a really calm and he doesn't sound/look like a passionate debater. Pierre Ducasse was a real surprise back in the 2003 race but I honestly think he did it to put Quebec a little bit more in the NDP agenda, since Thomas Mulcair would have a much stronger appeal in the province, I would guess that Pierre would support Thomas for this same reason. But we never know. Françoise Boivin is one of my favorite NDP MPs, she is smart, a progressive voice and her passion gives her an atypical charisma. I can't see her having a wide appeal though, unfortunately. I don't see any other people from Quebec being a candidate (even Alexandre Boulerice, Nycole Turmel, Robert Aubin, Raymond Côté,...).
There are some names I'd like to get your feedback on, since I don't know them enough:
David Miller, could he really be a candidate? do we know if he ever supported the NPD?
Stephen Lewis, could he also be a candidate? I am pretty sure his age doesn't do any favour though... His speech was such a strong stand for social democracy.
Jack Harris, is he bilingual? Being from NFL, could it be marginalizing the party? He is smart and has a nice political background.
Ray Martin, he may be a little bit old for the job, but there is no question the man has a good politcal background and he is a really strong progressive voice. Having being defeated for the last 3 elections in 3 different Edmonton ridings doesn't do any favour, but I like Ray. what do you think?
Linda Duncan, could she be running? She has a nice background and seems like a smart and composed person. Does she have the charisma to lead?
Rob Moir, a NB NDP candidates in the past. He has a strong economical background but he is also a strong progressive voice and based on clips I've seen of him, he is charismatic.
Is there anyone from the provincial NDP scence that I forgot? In Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Alberta, BC, Nova Scotia?
The new NDP leader will have to be bilingual for sure. That eliminates a few strong potential leader: Libby Davies, Robert Chisholm and a few others...
At this stage, a leadership race including the following would be really interesting:
- Thomas Mulcair
- Peggy Nash
- Megan Leslie or Niki Ashton
- Rob Moir or Guy Caron
- Peter Julian
- David Miller??
I like Peggy Nash and everything but I fall asleep when she starts talking
Is there any potential star candidate we are forgetting? Someone from another background than federal NDP experience?
It is a great quality for a finance minister, but it seems like she is super vague sometimes and too avoiding of the issues
The first half of the first sentence is true: donations to the candidate's campaign for the leadership of a political party are not tax receptiable.
The rest is not correct: there is a lifetime, "once-off" limit of $1100 that anyone can donate to any candidate's campaign for the leadership of any party.
Most candidates for the last Liberal leadership race that Stephane Dion won still have debt, according to an interesting Pundit's Guide thread. This needs to be a cautionary tale for anyone seeking the NDP (or Liberal) leadership under the current federal political party financing legislation.
How's aboput Michaelle Jean?
How about Louise Arbour? She is an amazing person and she fought for social justice all her life. Her potilical experience would put in shame even some of most experienced canadian politicians. Would it be really weird for someone who has never been a publicly NDP supporter to jump in the race? I know I am day dreaming, but why not? ;)