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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility?

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Stockholm
Online
Joined: Sep 29 2002

Do the local members also have a right to be told by Aglugub and Sidhu that if they don't get the NDP nomination, they won't think twice and joining the Conservatives and running for them instead?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

What are you saying? There's no way to tell what someone may do in the future, so I don't know how anybody could have known that.


lil.Tommy
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Joined: Jun 3 2011

So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice? my MAN friends can fill me in here.

 

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Maloway-wins-NDP-nominatio...


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

lil.Tommy wrote:
So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice?

Absolutely. The truth is, all the parties could do much better at being representative of the population than they are currently, and an open seat in Elmwood was a great opportunity to renew the organization and move fresh faces up through the ranks. Now that Maloway is back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Elmwood fall out of the NDP column, even though it was the Elmwood area that voted for Jim in the federal election.


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Maloway's behavior only re-asserts blatant stereotypes about the politics of personal ambition, personal agendas, and total disregard for the voting population and the constiuents. An easy, huge target for the Tories. This is so, so bad.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

2dawall wrote:
Maloway's behavior only re-asserts blatant stereotypes about the politics of personal ambition, personal agendas, and total disregard for the voting population and the constiuents. An easy, huge target for the Tories. This is so, so bad.

Espeically since the Tory candidate in Elmwood played a key role in taking the federal seat from the NDP.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Aristotleded24 wrote:

lil.Tommy wrote:
So this Back and forth in Elmwood is starting to get rediculous; now i don't know Shaneen Robinson but for a party that needs some new blood and fresh ideas, wouldn't she have been the better choice?

Absolutely. The truth is, all the parties could do much better at being representative of the population than they are currently, and an open seat in Elmwood was a great opportunity to renew the organization and move fresh faces up through the ranks. Now that Maloway is back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Elmwood fall out of the NDP column, even though it was the Elmwood area that voted for Jim in the federal election.

Wait a second, I thought 'the party' was supposed to keep its nose out of nomination races and leave everything up to the wisdom of the local membership?

Maloway is a dreadful candidate who has been around far too long and should have taken the hint when the voters 'retired' him in the federal election. That said, this is one of the safest NDP seats in the province. Maloway held it even in the 1988 disaster, and the Elmwood half of the federal riding stayed loyal to him in May. If the NDP loses Elmwood, they're going to lose virtually everything. I don't see a meltdown of that scale at this point.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

First off, how was that post a contradiction of my preference that local ridings be allowed to choose their own candidates?

Secondly, if there is anything the federal election taught us, it's that there is no such thing as a "safe seat." Elmwood-Transcona, held by the NDP in 1993, was a "safe NDP seat." If you go a couple hours down the road to Brandon East, that seat was also held by the NDP in 1988, but there is a realistic chance that it could fall out of the NDP column this time around. Besides, maybe Elmwood residents will get tired of Maloway (nobody on the public news boards seems to like him, if that is any indication) but at the same time, maybe some of the southern MLAs, like Kerri Irvin-Ross and Erin Selby have worked hard enough that they will win their seats. Who knows?


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

On the first point, I guess I misunderstood your post.

On the second point, fair enough, but I still do not see the massive shift to the Tories at the federal level being replicated at the provincial level, particularly after Maloway still won Elmwood fairly easily.

I note (with some satisfaction) that the NDP campaign kickoff is taking place in my old riding of River East tomorrow. The NDP has traditionally had its campaign kickoff in its top target ridings and it has always gone on to win those seats in the election, so maybe this is a sign that the party is finally putting resources into River East. It was always a source of constant frustration for me when I was active in the party that provincial office would talk a big game about making River East a target seat, and then quietly write it off about two weeks after the writ was dropped. But after Bonnie Mitchelson barely squeaked in by 49 votes last time, I guess they have finally realized that with a little work and resources, it is totally winnable. Speaking of too-long-in-the-tooth politicians that need to retire, I was somewhat surprised to see Bonnie offering again (she was first elected in 1986, same as Jim Maloway and is second only to Steve Ashton as the MLA with the longest continuous service). I suspect there was some arm-twisting by PC HQ to get her to run again, since it would be a lot tougher to retain the seat without the advantage of her incumbency. 2007 candidate Kurt Penner is running again for the NDP and hopefully, with some real backing from provincial office, he can knock her off this time.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

ghoris wrote:
The NDP has traditionally had its campaign kickoff in its top target ridings and it has always gone on to win those seats in the election, so maybe this is a sign that the party is finally putting resources into River East.

How about putting resources into Brandon West, Portage, and Lac du Bonnet as well? All 3 of those seats were represented by incumbent PCs who would have been in Cabinet if McFadyen won, and all 3 MLAs are not running again.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

I'm sure the party will be putting resources into some if not all of those seats. I see James Kostuchuk is running again in Portage - hopefully that means there will be a push there. (Not sure if Faurschou would have been in cabinet - didn't Hugh's inner circle orchestrate a nomination challenge last time?)

While I still believe that the party needs to focus primarily on consolidating and defending its existing seats, I think strategically it also makes sense to put resources into seats where Tory incumbents are not running again and where the NDP has a decent shot at winning - if for no other reason than because it forces the Tories to go on the defensive in their incumbent seats rather than putting more resources into NDP targets. River East, Portage and Brandon West should all be definite targets. I'm not as optimistic about LDB - the Tories have won by increasingly large margins since Praznik's close call in 1999, but without the advantage of incumbency it might be more competitive.


The Analyst
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Joined: Aug 7 2011

Aristotleded24 wrote:

A couple of developments I want to comment on:

In South Winnipeg, an NDP candidate has been barred from running for nomination. Apparently the excuse given by the Executive is that Mangat used to be a Liberal. Apparently Mangat supported Ashton over Selinger for the leadership, so some are speculating that this decision is payback.

Next we have the PC Platform, or as I like to call it, "A Beginner's Look At Bungling An Election That Was Yours To Win." Manitoba is currently in a deficit position, and the Economic Action Plan that the NDP rolled out and is currently implementing has the deficit eliminated by 2014. The PCs have been vocal in opposing the deficit measures and have previously insisted on balancing budgets year over year. Well, they suddenly went back on that platform plank, and said their plan will now take four years longer to bring the province's books out of red ink. Apparently it's designed to quell fears that a PC government would implement severe cuts to social spending a-la Mike Harris. I've long been critical of this government campaigning against the former Filmon government in each election, but this PC platform tells me that those fears are resonating beyond NDP partisans.

 

Honestly, what a friggin clusterf*ck!

For months, Hugh McFadyen took a moralistic stance against deficit spending. Sure, given the weakness of the macroeconomy it was stupid policy, but he nailed it into the heads of Manitobans that the NDP were "spendthrift". Winnipeg's Trash Tabloid, the Winnipeg Sun, had column after column about the provincial deficit, transfer payments, evil bureaucrats, and other hot air from Tom Brodbeck. And now, the PCs are saying they really weren't serious about that whole "balance the budget in a year" proposal, but will wait several to do so? Longer than the NDP Government proposes to wait! WTF??!!!

While I'd agree that it's good policy given the high chance of a second dip in the world economy, it's bad politics and they certainly aren't going to keep that promise.


lil.Tommy
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Joined: Jun 3 2011

Looks like the Campaign begins (ok in about an hour MAN time) with some good news for the NDP:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Selinger-has-some-of-countrys-highest-approval-ratings-129300143.html

 

 


Rebecca West
Online
Joined: Nov 28 2001

Continued here.


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