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More Electoral Maps

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Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002
toaster wrote:

I don't understand the uproar of the Ottawa ridings having the "Ottawa - " prefix?  All Calgary and Edmonton (two cities about the size of Ottawa) have all their ridings start with their respective city's name.

The name of the city is still, sometimes, Ottawa-Carleton. The school board is Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. The transit system is "OC Transpo." And so on.


twinklestar
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Joined: May 2 2007

It has to do with amalgamation. Calgary and Edmonton didn't get amalgamated in the same way. Kanata is in Ottawa in name only, and it doesn't belong in the riding name. Same goes with Barrhaven, or the southern rural bits. Ottawa-Orleans is an exception, because they don't care as much. Perhaps it's because it was in two prior municipalities and if you go far back enough, two prior counties (making "Carleton-Orleans" a weird name)


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West? Wink


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Wasn't Ottawa-Orleans like Toronto-Danforth, i.e. renamed at the request of the sitting member?


twinklestar
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Joined: May 2 2007

Krago wrote:

How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West? Wink

 

Wentworth West (or Wentworth North, actually if you look at the hisotircal name for the riding) is much preferred in my opinion to the long winded name they have now. However, I'm not sure how much the word Wentworth is used by locals anymore. "Carleton" is still used by rural Ottawans, and is more approrpriate than using "Ottawa" in riding names for those areas.

And yes, Ottawa-Orleans was renamed in between redistributions. I think it had to do with amalgamation. But, "Carleton-Glouceter" was a terrible name for the riding. I don't like Ottawa-Orleans as a name either, but it's a better choice. One name I'd like for that riding (but would never happen) is Orleans-Blackburn.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Krago wrote:

How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West? Wink

 

My whimsical name for it is "West Flamduncaster"


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Personally I would like to see a ban on riding names that are more than three words. Some of them are ridiculous. West Vancouver sunshine coast sea to infinity etc etc? really.


Robo
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Joined: Jun 1 2003

toaster wrote:

While it would be easy to say just take the 5,000-10,000 most Northern residents of both Sault Ste. Marie and Nickel Belt/Manitoulin ridings and put them in with Cochrane-Superior, you'd have to go pretty far south into the ridings to get that many people.  Maybe the inevitable, consolidating the 4 most Northern ridings into 3 (Thunder Bay, Cochrane-Kapuskasing-Superior North, and Kenora-Rainy River), might be the best option, although a lot of people won't like that.

At present, alnmost all of the northern Ontario constituencies have an averge population significantly lower than the Ontario average, on the principle that "it's hard to represent remote northern ridings".  What Krago seems to have done here is to make two ridings that are clearly "remote" and give them especially low populations, while raising the averge of the more "urban" northern Ontario ridings.  This makes sense.

A precedent was set by the Boundaries Commission for Nefoundland and Labrador in the 1980s.  Before that, Labrador was joined with some part of the "northern peninsula" of Newfoundland, because Labrador has never had enough people to comprise an "average" federal constituency, and the ferry connection was to the northern peninsula.  The last Boundaries Commission said "Hey, it is remote -- let's just accept that and make the remaining constituencies overpopulated so as to allow Labrador to be a riding unto itself", at about one-third the population of the Newfoundland constituencies.  To a lesser degree, the Ontario boundaries commission followed the same principle in creating Kenora federally -- it is the smallest riding by population in northern Ontario (but 60% of an average Ontario riding's population, not roughly 33% as in the case of Labrador) and has close to an aboriginal majority. 

The Supreme Court has heard many cases about appropriate balancing of riding populations, for example throwing out a Saskatchewan proposal to have all rural provincial ridings with an average population very significantly under the average for urban provincial riding, because it was just much gosh darned harder to drive from one farm to another -- the fact that the Conservatives (at the time) did better in rural ridings than in urban ridings had nothing to do with it, of course -- pinky swear! 

While the Supremes tossed out the Saskatchewan plan for failing to respect the intent of the "right to vote" provisions in section 3 of the Charter, they did state that special rules for representation of remote populations might be justified in appropriate circumstances.

In my opinion, Sudbury riding does not need a lower than average population as a remote constituency. But the two constituencies drawn by Krago as Cochrane-Superior and Kenora do meet that principle. I am not saying that representing Timmins-Timiskaming will be all peaches and cream (despite the Clay Belt...) -- but a riding like Timmins-James Bay is less fair to the very remote predominantly aboriginal communities located that far out.

It's a judgment call, in each case -- as the Supremes said it should be.  Comments above don't seem to get that Krago is taking that principle to a logical end, and not actually creating unjustifiable deviations -- instead, they are Supreme Court-endorsed justifiable deviations, IMHO.


pebbles
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Joined: Jul 3 2004

Wilf Day wrote:
The name of the city is still, sometimes, Ottawa-Carleton. The school board is Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. The transit system is "OC Transpo." And so on.

The name of the city is not "Ottawa-Carleton."

And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?


Robo
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Joined: Jun 1 2003

pebbles wrote:

And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?

Well, in the present Parliament, the City of Ottawa plus the Town of Mississippi Mills comprise 7 constituencies.  In Krago's proposal above, the City of Ottawa alone would be comprised of 8 constituencies.  I believe that means Ottawa does gain.

 


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

In honour of provincial elections, would it be possible to request the 2006 map of Selkirk-Interlake, the 2011 map of Charlottetown, and maybe the 2011 of Prince Albert? Thanks.


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

Here is a slight revision to my original map:

 

Proposed 124 Ontario Ridings

 

I've changed the boundary around Peterborough (tip of the hat to Wilf Day) and added Rural % to the populations.

 

I've also created an alternative map for Northern Ontario that reduces the number of seats north of the 47th parallel from five to four, and keeps all of them within 25% of the provincial average.

 

Alternative 4 Northern Ontario Ridings

 


Vansterdam Kid
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Joined: Apr 15 2004

Would you be able to make a similar projection for BC and its additional 7 ridings post-redistribution?


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

My Ontario ridings are based on 2011 population estimates found here.  I would need to find similar figures for BC.


Centrist
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Joined: Apr 7 2004

Krago, would you be so kind and prepare a 2011 federal election map for the BC Interior? You do fantastic work and I appreciate what you have posted here!


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002
Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002
Krago wrote:

My Ontario ridings are based on 2011 population estimates found here.  I would need to find similar figures for BC.

Best I can give you is 2010; better than nothing:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-x/2009000/tablelist-listetableaux3-e...


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

Wow, Krago. Those are some of the most interesting riding maps I've seen yet, in terms of what they suggest about NDP growth potential. Great work!

ETA: Same goes for Northern BC. Interesting to see how the support appears in the Prince George ridings.

 


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

Here's my silly wild-assed guess about how BC's seven additional districts would be allocated:
 
One new seat
 Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South
 
Two new seats
 Delta--Richmond East, Richmond, Fleetwood--Port Kells, Newton--North Delta, South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale, Surrey North, Abbotsford, Langley
 
One new seat
 Burnaby--Douglas, Burnaby--New Westminster, Dewdney--Alouette, New Westminster--Coquitlam, Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam
 
One new seat
 North Vancouver, West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--etc, Nanaimo--Alberni, Vancouver Island North
 
One new seat
 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, Nanaimo--Cowichan, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Victoria
 
One new seat
 Kamloops--Thompson, Kelowna, North Okanagan--Shuswap, Okanagan--Coquihalla, Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon
 
No changes
 Cariboo--Prince George, Kootenay--Columbia, Prince George--Peace River, Skeena--Bulkley Valley, Southern Interior


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002
Krago wrote:

Here's my silly wild-assed guess about how BC's seven additional districts would be allocated

Looks right, except for one quibble:

Krago wrote:

One new seat

Kamloops--Thompson, Kelowna, North Okanagan--Shuswap, Okanagan--Coquihalla, Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon

Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon is not in the Interior, it goes with Abbotsford in the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD).


Sine Ziegler
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Joined: Apr 22 2001

This was probably noted already, but wow to the Macleod riding just south west of Calgary. Looks like the Tsuu T'ina reserve voted NDP heavily. I wonder why? I live right across Glenmore Trail/Highway 8 from the reserve but haven't gotten to know my neighbours.


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

Wilf, these aren't intended to be BC regions.  Who in their right mind would have a region that split Nanaimo in half?

These are areas that would - based on estimates of estimates of population - receive additional seats if BC is allocated seven additional ridings.  Since Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon is on the western end of its particular area, it could lose territory in the Fraser Canyon area to an adjoining seat and become more of a Chilliwack-centred ED.  Capiche?

Also, if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.


Vansterdam Kid
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Joined: Apr 15 2004

Hey Krago,


You're maps are great and thanks for uploading them and all but could you do a version of your Northern BC Interior Map that focuses more closely on Prince George? The giant black lines makes it so that you can't see a particularly good poll-by-poll result of the city even when you zoom to 2400%.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002
Krago wrote:

. . if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.

Very helpful, except that Muskoka is in southern Ontario by almost every classification. The question is, should northern Ontario (including Parry Sound) get nine ridings or ten out of 124? By my estimates it rates 7.56 MPs, or nine MPs an average of 16% below quotient. You have better numbers; am I right? I suspect ten is not arguable; do you agree?

Also, does your Brant 1.29 include the 10,000 or so people of Six Nations, omitted from the 2006 census as incompletely enumerated?


Krago
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Joined: Sep 9 2002

The provincial government thinks Northern Ontario includes Parry Sound-Muskoka, as do Tony Martin and Claude Gravelle.  But what do they know?

Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999?  Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.

And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

As for Muskoka and Northern Ontario, see:

Northern Ontario Districts as defined by Ontario's Ministry of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry

http://www.mndmf.gov.on.ca/nohfc/northern_ontario_districts_e.asp

Growth Plan for Northern Ontario

https://www.placestogrow.ca/images/pdfs/GPNO-final.pdf

the Northern Ontario Energy Credit

http://www.rev.gov.on.ca/en/credit/noec/index.html

I could continue. For Ontario elections, Muskoka and Parry Sound were separate districts until Mike Harris shrank the House in 1999.

For school boards, Muskoka is in Trillium Lakelands District School Board along with the City of Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton County, and is in the Central East Region of OPSBA. Parry Sound is in Near North District School Board along with North Bay and Nipissing, and is in the Northern Ontario region of OPSBA.

For ther Local Health Integration Networks, Parry Sound is in North East, Muskoka is in "North Simcoe Muskoka." http://www.lhins.on.ca/FindYourLHIN.aspx?ekmensel=e2f22c9a_72_254_btnlink

In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one. That's why I said Muskoka is almost always in Southern Ontario, Parry Sound in Northern Ontario. In fact, it might be "always."

Krago wrote:

Should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?

Yes.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

Krago wrote:

The provincial government thinks Northern Ontario includes Parry Sound-Muskoka, as do Tony Martin and Claude Gravelle.  But what do they know?

Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999?  Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.

And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?

Krago, didn't you hear, Parry Sound-Muskoka is now the banana republic of Clementia. It's economy feeds from a separate trough.


meades
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Joined: May 18 2001

Quote:
The provincial government thinks Northern Ontario includes Parry Sound-Muskoka, as do Tony Martin and Claude Gravelle.  But what do they know?

Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999?  Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.

It's worth noting that the original text of Tony Martin's bill excluded Parry Sound. Many (probably most) people in the other Northern districts scoff at the idea of Parry Sound being part of Northern Ontario - but then again, when I was in Sioux Lookout a lot of local residents scoffed at the idea that Sault Ste. Marie was part of Northern Ontario, so that goes to show you there is a certain "more-North-than-thou" attitude that peeps into how people construct their identity as Northerners. At the very least, the folks I met in Sioux Lookout tempered their scoffing with acknowledgement that (with the exception of Fort Severn and Peawanuck) most of inhabited Northern Ontario is far south of northern parts of the Western provinces. 

Anyhow, Martin got a lot of blowback from people in Parry Sound, which led to the change in the bill. They asserted that while there are a lot of summer cottagers, the people that actually live in the region still face the same economic struggles and conditions as others in the North, and have about the same average income (if not a bit lower, compared to Greater Sudbury).

It can be argued that this doesn't necessarily mean you're part of the North, but Tony and the rest of the caucus (rightly, I believe) felt it wasn't worth alienating these people, particularly given their comparatively small population and given the Northern boundary is so subjective. Really the concept of "Northern Ontario" has only existed for a comparatively short time in Canadian political history, given Ontario's only had its present borders since about 1905. There are two traditional definitions of what constitutes Northern Ontario: The first was embodied by the original text of Tony's bill, limiting the North to everything north of the French River. This excludes Parry Sound and half of Nipissing. The second definition is all those administrative divisions in Ontario that are "Districts" plus Greater Sudbury (which was originally just part of Sudbury District, until the most recent round of restructuring). This includes all of Nipissing and Parry Sound, but excludes Muskoka. So I would say Muskoka doesn't necessarily have to be paired with Parry Sound, and in fact, Parry Sound's claims to Northern status would be better served if the clumping of the two were ended. In any case, even with this boundary, Tony's bill was very important, because a lot of FedNor money was actually going to places like Perth County and other places that are uncontestably NOT part of the North. 

And, uh, while we're on the topic, Krago, do you think I could bug you for one of those maps for Sault Ste. Marie based on 2011 results? ;)


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Wilf Day wrote:
I could continue. For Ontario elections, Muskoka and Parry Sound were separate districts until Mike Harris shrank the House in 1999.

In Northern/Southern terms, how was the Muskoka riding determined pre-1999, considering that it extended into the Midland part of Simcoe County?


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