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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility? Part 2

MegB
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Joined: Nov 28 2001

Continued from here.


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The Analyst
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Joined: Aug 7 2011

Looks like the Tories have succeded in snatching defeat from the Jaws of Victory.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

How's that? The election is still almost 4 weeks away - a lot can happen during the campaign.

I will say, however, that as I predicted in the previous thread, Gord Steeves' musings about privatizing MPI are already coming back to haunt the Tories.

Quote:
PC Leader Hugh McFadyen has repeatedly said that he is not interested in privatizing public corporations.

But videos circulating online show Gord Steeves, the Tories' star candidate in Seine River, talking about private-sector auto insurance. 

"For me, this comes down to a very basic philosophical question: is auto insurance a service that government needs to provide, or could this service be provided by the private sector? The obvious answer to me is yes, it could," Steeves told Shaw TV in an interview earlier this year, before he became a PC candidate.

Steeves was not made available to comment on Wednesday, but McFadyen maintained that his party does not wish to privatize Manitoba's Crown corporations.

"I think we've made it clear: we're not coming in to privatize crown corporations," McFadyen told reporters.

"Everybody has opinions. That's not party policy."

But the New Democrats have been citing Steeves's comments to illustrate what they believe is the Progressive Conservatives' plan to privatize Manitoba Hydro and Manitoba Public Insurance.

"The opposition, and Hugh McFadyen's Conservatives, would like to raise electricity rates to market rates," Selinger said.

"One of his leading candidates has suggested privatizing auto insurance is an option that he thinks is a viable option."

What a lame answer by Hugh! "Everyone has opinions". The Tory 'war room' had to know the NDP was going to make this an issue - this is the best they could come up with?

 


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

ghoris wrote:
What a lame answer by Hugh! "Everyone has opinions". The Tory 'war room' had to know the NDP was going to make this an issue - this is the best they could come up with?

Hard to believe that Hugh is backed by the same team that got Katz re-elected and moved Winnipeg South Centre and Elmwood-Transcona into the Conservative column.


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Well there are weeks left. Maybe Steeves said that as a trial balloon to see how it went. I do not drive a vehicle but I think MPI's rates are probably the second lowest in the country. Someone needs to do a flip-phone ambush on McFadyen/McFayden while wearing a suit and say "hey Hugh just between you and me, we will sell MPI won't we?"


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Does anyone have a transposition of the votes in the last provincial election applied to the new boundaries?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

If there is one thing this election has clearly shown, it's that the entire political class in this province is out of steam and needs renewal.

First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.

Next we have the PCs. Their campaign slogan is "vision, change, progress," but what exactly that means, I don't know. Their campaign is very confused, on the one hand using the same right-wing talking points about crime that resonate only with their base, yet on the other hand trying to out-NDP the NDP on health spending. One minute they want to balance the budget at all costs, the next they plan to balance the budget 4 years later than what would happen under the economic action plan launched by the current government.

Then the Liberals. I give them marks for raising some social issues that remain unresolved, but the Liberal brand simply has no traction in this province. Dr. Gerrard, despite having been around for 12 years, has simply not caught on. He seems to think he can be all things to all people, despite the fact that sometimes you have to make decisions that will inherently leave some unhappy. They've raised a couple of issues like beat cops and rapid transit, unfortunately those issues are primarily decided by the city and I really doubt that they would twist the arms of the current civic administration that much anyways. The Liberals will be absolutely squeezed out in the polarized race between the top 2 parties. If the Liberals avoid being wiped out, it will be because community activist Paul Hesse wins the Fort Rouge race on his own merits, not as a result of any affection for the Liberal brand.

Then we have the Greens. They are running the most candidates they ever have. Unfortunately, their vote is not concentrated enough to make a huge impact in any part of the province, and they simply do not have the infrastructure needed to get their message out and inspire people. Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May came to Manitoba to try and energize things, but I don't know how people feel about a federal politician representing another province coming and telling Manitobans what they should or shouldn't do.


2dawall
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I love to bash the NDP nearly as much as anyone but I do not actually recall them mentioning privitization as much as this current election. I was working 60 hours a week during the last election so I easily could have missed a lot. What I do recall (and please correct me) was that they really, really emphasized Gary Doer and his smile. I think even local candidate signs emphasized Gary Doer over the NDP.

Aristotleded24 wrote:
...

First, we have the governing NDP. Once a party has been in office for so long, the need for renewal begins to show, as a party that has been in office a long time tends to hunker down rather than reach out and be bold. Despite the fact that the majority feel the province is headed in the right direction overall, there is a sense that maybe it's time for a change. Plus the fact that the NDP has been interfering in local nomination races is not good, and gives off an air of entitlement that turns voters off. And trying to fear-monger that McFadyen will privatize everything he can get his hands on? That routine is getting really old.


dacckon
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Joined: May 19 2011

I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.


laine lowe
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Joined: Dec 15 2006

dacckon wrote:

I watched the debate, Greg held together well. He should have added some hst attacks onto all of his opponents. He missed alot of one-liner knockout opportunities.

 

That's good to hear. I have a sinking feeling that it's going to be a slam-dunk victory for the Conservatives. Hugh McFayden is the only face you see on campaign posters. The party isn't even much bothered with the credentials of individual candidates. It's very reminiscent of how the Federal conservatives have been running their campaign. It's totally focused on voting for a leader and not your representative.   


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Just curious why you feel it's going to be a 'slam-dunk victory' for the Tories. My brother lives in Winnipeg and he's a Tory supporter, and he still thinks the NDP is going to win. 

Running leader-centred campaigns is nothing new. The Tories used to run as the 'Gary Filmon Team' and put the party name in microscopic print on everything. The last two elections it was "Gary Doer and Today's NDP."

That said, if the Tories are really putting the leader front and centre, that's stupid strategy on their part. Selinger may be dull, but people seem to think he's a safe pair of hands at least. Hugh comes across as a smirking frat boy lightweight. Last election, the Tories' numbers actually went *down* during the campaign - the more people saw of Hugh, the less they liked. I think he's a total liability for them (my brother thinks so too), but with a caucus full of has-beens and never-will-bes, I suppose they don't have much choice. If they are really putting all their chips down on the 'leadership' issue, that's a dangerous game they're playing.


laine lowe
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Joined: Dec 15 2006

I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?

 


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006

David Young wrote:

Have there been any poll results released so far in the election campaign to see how the parties are doing at this point?

 

Last poll was in June


Ptarmigan
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Joined: Oct 11 2005

New poll out in Manitoba.  NDP leads PCs by 41-32 with Liberals at 5.

http://www.cjob.com/Landing/Story.aspx?ID=1545343


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.

A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm.  If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?

ghoris wrote:

And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.

A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm.  If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.


2dawall
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What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.

laine lowe wrote:

I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.


Fidel
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Joined: Apr 29 2004

2dawall wrote:

600? That is a really, really small sample size. I wonder if that relates to more and more people just hanging up on pollsters?

ghoris wrote:

And even more significantly, the NDP has a big lead in battleground Winnipeg with 46 percent to 25 for the Tories, plus the Tory and Liberal support is softer, including more "leaners" than the NDP support, which is more committed.

A couple of provisos: the poll has a small sample size (just under 600) and the polling was done by Viewpoints Research - Gary Doer's wife's firm.  If we see some confirmation in the Free Press/Probe poll (which they always try to spin in the Tories' favour), that will mean the NDP is well on its way.

 

It might be a small sample size, but Manitoba has a small population, about 1.2M. If 1.2M is the population, and not all Manitobans are eligible voters, and a confidence level of 95% is desired with sample size of 600, then pollsters can be 95% certain of results with +/- 4% margin of error. As far as statistical sampling goes, randomness of opinions is more important than either sample or population size.


laine lowe
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2dawall wrote:

What in particular leads to the impression that Jennifer Howard works hard for her constituents? Not a rhetorical question.

laine lowe wrote:

I hope you and your brother are right, ghoris. Most people I chat with think that the Conservatives are going to take it. I think my riding is safe because our MLA, Jennifer Howard, is really decent and hard working for her constituents.

She certainly send more regular updates than Pat Martin or (in my new federal riding) Joyce Bateman. Plus her performance at the Leg has been very decent. And finally, she does not rely on robo-calls for seeking support.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:

PC  45

NDP 42

Lib 10

Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).

Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:

Quote:
Unlike traditional telephone polling, in which respondents are randomly selected, the Environics survey was conducted online among 1,000 respondents, all of whom were chosen from a larger pool of people who were recruited and compensated for participating. Environics then adjusts the sample to reflect a broad spectrum of the population.

The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.

 

Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.

The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.

Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!


Aristotleded24
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ghoris wrote:
Selinger may be dull, but people seem to think he's a safe pair of hands at least. Hugh comes across as a smirking frat boy lightweight. Last election, the Tories' numbers actually went *down* during the campaign - the more people saw of Hugh, the less they liked. I think he's a total liability for them (my brother thinks so too), but with a caucus full of has-beens and never-will-bes, I suppose they don't have much choice. If they are really putting all their chips down on the 'leadership' issue, that's a dangerous game they're playing.

Leeann Rowat would be an effective leader and would make any government slip-ups stick, plus she would also eat into the female demographic that the NDP relies on, but I have doubts as to whether the power brokers within the party would allow that. Kind of like how they ended Denis Rocan's political career.


2dawall
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Joined: Apr 12 2010

Is there a history of such on-line polls being close to predicting anything? I think the Freep should have taken a kilo of salt given its nature. I have suspicions about both polls; I am rarely out and about but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.

ghoris wrote:

Well, I guess I spoke too soon - the Environics poll for CP has the Tories with a slight lead, which I suspect is within the margin of error:

PC  45

NDP 42

Lib 10

Basically, it's a dead heat. There are no regional breakdowns but the sample size was much bigger than the Viewpoints poll - 1,000 vs. under 600. That said, this poll is not all bad news for Team Orange: the undecideds favour the NDP. Selinger beats McFadyen handily on the leadership/approval front. The Tory vote is generally less efficient than the NDP vote, so even a tie in the popular vote is likely to produce a narrow NDP majority (as happened in 1986).

Plus even the Free Press seems to be taking this poll with a grain of salt:

Quote:
Unlike traditional telephone polling, in which respondents are randomly selected, the Environics survey was conducted online among 1,000 respondents, all of whom were chosen from a larger pool of people who were recruited and compensated for participating. Environics then adjusts the sample to reflect a broad spectrum of the population.

 

The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine statistically how accurately the results reflect the opinions of the population at large.

 

Although Viewpoints is clearly connected to the NDP, they are a local firm which has done a ton of polling on Manitoba politics. I'd trust their local expertise more than a bunch of number-crunchers playing with computers in faraway Toronto.

The results of this poll are similar to the one that came out just before the 1999 election that had the NDP and the Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent with the Liberals a distant third. The NDP won 45 percent and 32 seats on election day versus 40 percent and 24 seats for the Tories.

Looks like the Probe/Free Press poll may be the tie-breaker. Either way, it's going to be a close election. I am still standing by my prediction of 30 NDP, 27 PC, but the message for NDPers to take away from this is: Work like hell until next Tuesday!


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

2dawall wrote:

but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.

 

And voter fatigue, with the civic election last fall and the federal in spring.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

But I just read an article on the CBC web-site stating that advance voter turnout is much higher than in the previous provincial election.

Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?

 


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

David Young wrote:
But I just read an article on the CBC web-site stating that advance voter turnout is much higher than in the previous provincial election.

Doesn't that usually mean a higher turnout on voting day?

Not necessarily. It could mean (and the facts will probably bear this out) that those who wanted to vote will vote earlier instead of on election day without much change in overall numbers.


Aristotleded24
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2dawall wrote:
I am rarely out and about but it seems like fewer people are talking about this election that I can recall in the past 2o-some years of provincial elections. More apathy, more complacency, less connection to it, less discussion amongst the plebes than I can recall. All of the parties playing to a mythical middle could be part of that.

I was in Brandon for part of the campaign, and when I was there, it seemed to me that there were about as many signs on private property as there were on public. Heck, it seems there were even more signs on private property during the 2006 municipal elections than what I saw recently, and municipal turn-out is generally lower than provincial.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002
Looks like the NDP will win. The final Probe poll says the NDP leads 46-43 with a mammoth lead in Winnipeg! http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clingin...

Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

Stockholm wrote:
Looks like the NDP will win. The final Probe poll says the NDP leads 46-43 with a mammoth lead in Winnipeg! http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/provincial-election/ndp-clinging-to-lead-poll-says-130836243.html

Assuming the poll results are a) accurate and b) hold. Last sprint to the ballot box.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Shades of 1999, when the last poll had the NDP and Tories in a dead heat at 42 percent. Final numbers were 45 NDP to 40 PC, which was good for 32 seats for the NDP. The Probe poll is closer to the Environics poll, but Environics was in the field after Viewpoints, so it's possible that the NDP slipped in the days following the Viewpoints poll and then regained a bit of ground recently. When the polling is this close, either party could realistically get anything from 40 to 50 percent of the vote on election day, depending on turnout, margins of error, etc.

The bad news for the Tories is that they need to beat the NDP by a good 6 or 7 points in the popular vote to win a majority. They are also not gaining ground where they need to - ie, Winnipeg. I fully expect them to gain a few seats outside the Perimeter - they will win the new La Verendrye for sure, and have a few other serious possibilities in Brandon East, Dauphin and Dawson Trail, maybe even Gimli, Interlake and Swan River. I don't see a pickup of more than 3 seats at the absolute most. More likely is that the Tories will just run up even bigger majorities in the 'yellow dog' rural seats they already hold.

Probe and the Free Press did their usual darndest to downplay the negatives for the Tories, but there's no sugar-coating the Winnipeg numbers - the Tories are nearly 20 points back and are trailing everywhere except the southwest, where they have a statistically insignificant lead. (Although I would imagine these 'regional breakdown' sample sizes are pretty small, so we should probably not read *too* much into them.)

The northwest Winnipeg numbers are interesting. Jim Rondeau won Assiniboia by huge margins in 2003 and 2007, so even with 'star candidate' Susan Auch running for the Tories, that's a tough hill for them to climb. I suspect the Tories are more of a threat in Kirkfield Park (a seat the NDP never won before 2007) and in St. James, where there is no incumbent. Those southeast numbers have to be discouraging for the Tories, because they've put such a big push into seats like Seine River, Riel and Southdale.  With those kinds of numbers, it's hard to see them winning those seats.  Similarly, there's no indication that the Tories are going to replicate their success at the federal level in northeast Winnipeg, which probably speaks more about the weakness of Jim Maloway as a federal candidate than the NDP 'brand'. At this point, I think the Tories have got St. Norbert in the bag as a pickup, and I suspect they will likely regain Kirkfield Park as well as snatching River Heights from Gerrard. But they've got uphill battles to defeat the NDP just about everywhere else in the city.

In the end result, I think we're going to see a result very similar to 1999, but slightly closer. I still believe the NDP will win 30-31 seats, the Tories 26-27, and the Liberals will be lucky to re-elect Gerrard. 


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