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Ontario 2011 election campaign
September 10, 2011 - 6:18pm
Continued from here:
http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-election-2011-pre-campaign-thread#new
http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-election-2011-pre-campaign-thread#new
If they phone every household, they will have a nice E-day supporters list.
Does every party do this? What does it cost?
All political parties, many unions and other organizations are making use of robo calling.
Not sure what the cost is, but like everything to do with technology costs are dropping.
I got a similar call except it didn't say who it was for, however, just the name of a research company I hadn't heard of.
I'm wondering if this won't be the religious education funding issue of this campaign - by that, I mean a platform item that was carefully chosen to appeal to a certain group of swing voters but which ends up losing more votes than it gains.
Employers who hire skilled immigrants need to provide them with specific training in order to qualify for a $10,000 credit, the Ontario Liberal Party clarified Saturday as it tried to quell the controversy over a tax credit its opponents have decried as an unfair affirmative action program for “foreign workers.”
"A company could apply for the grant if it hired 'new Canadian citizens (here five years or less) who are highly educated professionals in regulated fields such as architecture, accounting or engineering'.”
To be eligible for Canadian citizenship, you must have lived in Canada for at least three years (1,095 days), not counting absences. Then the processing time is 19 months, says the Citizenship and Immigration website. So how many people will be eligible? A five-month cohort?
Nanos poll
Liberals 38%
Conservatives 35%
NDP 24%
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/on-the-hus...
...and Ipsos also weighs in with similar numbers: Liberals 38%, PCs 37%, NDP 24% ...Greens ONE PERCENT - HAH!!
That looks more reasonable than the Liberals ahead by 11%. Looks like the Conservative slip is confirmed, but not quite a crash.
Polling numbers moving in a good direction: Tory defeat + NDP at 24%.
The NDP at 24% would begin to nudge some of the in-with-a-chance ridings into the orange column, including my adopted riding, Scarborough Southwest. It can also only be good news for the NDP in Scar-RR.
It's impossible to say definitively of course, but it seems to me that the federal party using all their resources and staff to win SGI has robbed pretty much everywhere else of organizers and fundraising. Green candidates seem to have gone into witness protection programs, their profile is so low. And I doubt more than one in a hundred Ontarians could name Mike Schreiner as their leader, never mind identify him.
But lets not forget how that turned out in May, the greens might have sacrificed the rest of canada but they now have a seat and earned a spot at the leaders debate once again (could be a good ro bad thing). BUT Where Mike is running in Simcoe-Grey is nowhere near Saanich-Gulf Islands... It was one of their best showings in 07 at 11%
I've been following this prediction website:
http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-...
According to the Elections Ontario website, there are 12 NDP candidates that have registered with Elections Ontario, but not been officially nominated:
and one NDP candidate that has been nominated, but not registered:
and one NDP candidate that has been neither registered nor nominated:
The deadline for nominations is Thursday, September 13 at 2pm. The deadline for registration is Wednesday, October 5 at 9pm. What happens on Election Day if a candidate is nominated but not registered is unknown.
Horwath lucked out of the draw for the debate and will be in the middle!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/on-the-hus...
I interviewed Mike Schreiner a few weeks back.
He's a really nice guy, but man, the Greens are pretty much conservative free market environmentalists.
Regardless, he should be in the debate.
It looks to me like only two NDP candidates remain from Krago's list in post #13 above to file their nomination papers, as of the time of me posting this message.
In reply to the quasi-question "What happens on Election Day if a candidate is nominated but not registered is unknown" is true, but I would guess that most such candidates will have trouble with filing their documentation after the election is complete. I did not understand the purpose of "registration" as opposed to "nomination" until I scanned the Elections Act and the Election Finances Act.
It is now clearer to me that a candidate's nomination fulfills the obligations under s.27(4) of the Election Act, while a candidate's registration meets the obligations under s.13(1) of the Election Finances Act (EFA). As long as the candidate receives no donations and has no expenses, there likely won't be a problem. But, since s.13(2) of the EFA specifically requires registration prior to accepting any donations (and no candidate can make expenditures except from a campaign account or other account otherwise registered with Elections Ontario), there will be problems should any donations get received by of expenses occur for any such un-registered candidate. But, as I wrote above, I'm just guessing -- we'll have to wait and see.
It's a long answer, but this seems consistent with the public policy goal of public disclosure of all campaign-related finances.
Actually, there are three NDP candidates who still need to cross their t's and dot their i's:
In other news, I notice Michael Prue is employing eye-wateringly day-glo orange signs. If his campaign wanted them to stand out, they certainly did the job.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2011/09/13/horwath-layton.ht...
Forum poll of Toronto residents (1046 respondents): Liberals 39%, NDP 30%, PCs 24%
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1...
Compare that with 2007 results: Liberal 45%, PCs 24%, NDP 22% and Greens 8% :D
That poll would pull Davenport and YSW into the NDP column, and makes things interesting in Scarberia. I would prefer to see the PC numbers slightly higher, though, to more thoroughly bite into the Liberal right flank.
I went through YSW and Davenport yesterday and the NDP had a clear lead in terms of signgage.
Another riding that could be interesting is York West. The NDP had a very good candidate last time - Antoni Shelton - who took 28% of the vote.
The official ONDP twitter account is saying that all 107 ONDP candidates have been registered with Elections Ontario.
Yes, it would be difficult for Cathy Crowe to beat Glen Murray in TC with the Tories polling this low in Toronto.
Although Pam Taylor ran a particularly clumsy and half-hearted campaign during the 2010 by-election, costing the PCs several percentage points. The overall PC vote matters less in TC than the TC PCs running a half-decent campaign. If that happens, then that could make things hairy for Murray with Crowe coming up awfully close. It's depressing, but given the riding, this is how things work in TC.
Agreed, but I did see a lot of Cathy Crowe signs down in Cabbagetown last week.
We can always hope.
Cabbagetown is THE area for Cathy; she needs to win there to win the seat. South she won in the by-election and that would be considered her strongest area (not the SW corner which is mostly condos but she did well there too); farther north of bloor is the PC/Liberal battle of Rosedale where she has very little chance.
The apartments in St. Jamestown have a very large Sri lankan Tamil presence. I wonder if the NDP breakthrough among tamils federally in Scarborough would have coat-tails among tamils in TC?
I would be very surprised to learn that Rathika being elected didn't have a positive ripple effect in the Tamil community.