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By their own free will, there are both Freedom and Libertarian candidates in 28 ridings, Freedom only in 29 ridings and Libertarian only in 23 ridings. There are 27 ridings that have shrugged off both parties.
New poll!
The Conservatives, who held a 20-point lead in an Angus Reid survey in May, now sits at 36 per cent with the Liberals at 32 per cent.
The New Democrats had 26 per cent and the Green Party trailed at 6 per cent.
Obviously the regional numbers are less reliable but this one has the NDP just slightly in the lead in the City of Toronto.
35% = all NDP incumbents home and dry; Davenport and YSW almost certainly gains; SRR and SSW are becoming real possibilities.
Paul Ferreira is swinging for the fence: he has over 3,000 signs in place, could get as many as 5,000.
I am as eager to dance on Glen Murray's political grave as anyone, but I shall hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
Duplicate post.
Historian's note – winning YSW and SSW would return two seats held in some form by past CCF/ONDP leaders (indeed, YSW seems to have specialized in providing leaders to the CCF/ONDP), which would be a nice thing to have.
Don't forget Ottawa Centre!
Ottawa Centre has always been a top target - but we are going over the Toronto pick-up possibilities in the wake of the poll showing such high NDP numbers in 416!
Here are the full results from that Reid survey...the NDP is also doing really well in the north and in Hamilton-Niagara...one thing that is slightly odd is that Horwath's personal numbers are quite low in Toronto considering how high NDP support is there. Everywhere else the "best person for premier" numbers line up consistently with vote intention.
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/2011.09.17_Ontario_...
Krago, if the ONDP can pick-up Ottawa Centre, YSW, and SSW along with retaining Kenora, we'll have the complete set of seats once held by former ONDP leaders. Said prospect certainly tickles ONDP members of a historical persuasion, such as I.
I'm guessing that 416 voters are voting for the brand, and the leader isn't necessarily something they consider.
...still to me - if someone says they will vote NDP AND they think Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier - I consider that person to be a more reliable vote.
Those regional numbers are interesting. With the exception of the 905, the global number for the province are very close to a three way tie. This election is going to get very, very interesting.
I can report in my riding, Huron-Bruce, that future NDP Agriculture Minister Grant Robertson's campaign is going gangbusters. If the NDP campaign can get a little more of a regional bounce this may be a big surprise on election day. But as in all things in this bellweather riding, it will be the central campaign in the end.
Electionprediction.org is calling Windsor West, YSW, Ottawa Centre, Algoma-Manitoulin, and Thunder Bay-Atikokan for the NDP. Given that this site is incredibly incumbent-friendly with a bias to the Liberals (federally and provincially), for them to be saying the OLP's fate in those ridings is sealed is interesting.
The bizarre thing is that they still have as tossups two seats with retiring Liberals that are about 99% certain to go NDP - Davenport and Timiskaming-Cochrane. In fact I am much more certain of the NDP winning those two seats than I am about Ottawa Centre or Algoma-Manitoulin.
When are the debates? At 26% the NDP has some serious mo'
ETA: Not to mention that the Liberals have really stepped up the attacks.
Personally, despite Neethan/Rathika, I have my doubts about Scarborough-Rouge River, if only because of Bas Balkissoon's built-in incumbent strength. It isn't that the NDP won't win; just that other less-mentioned seats may be more likely pickups than that one. (Now, if it were an open seat--or if the NDP passed the Liberals at-large--*then* it'd be a dead cert.)
Anyone notice that the 308 projections are showing PC and NDP neck-in-neck for Oshawa? On the September 14th projection it was 41% PC, 40% NDP. The day before it was 41% NDP, 38% PC.
Of course the formulas may not really take into account what is happening on the ground. Is this one a realistic take for the NDP?
If I read you right, adma, would SSW be a more likely pick-up than SRR?
We should also keep an eye on what might happen in Scarborough-Agincourt. The NDP didn't do anything there federally where Jim Karygiannis won again for the Libs but its not really all that different demographically than Scar-RR or Scar-Centre (though somewhat more heavily Chinese). But provincially its an open seat with Gerry Philips having retired and all three candidates are Chinese-Canadian. The NDP is running a young guy who is half Chinese and half Korean Paul Choi who seems to have a pretty active campaign - so who knows. We should also pay attention to York West which is actually the poorest riding in the city and where the ONDP did quite well in '07.
I'm interested to see the results in Markham-Unionville and Don Valley East where the Ontario NDP has some candidates with atypically strong credentials. In the former, John McCallum held on by a thread in 2011 after a massive victory in 2008. The Conservative vote barely budged while the NDP surged. Scar-Agincourt is definitely a riding to watch as an open seat and without the Jimmy K factor. Anybody think the NDP has a chance in Etobicoke?
Where on 308 are these projections for Oshawa? I can't find them.
I did find this though:
"The current riding projection has Oshawa's support standing at 39 per cent for the PCs and incumbent MPP Jerry Ouellette, 41 per cent for candidate Mike Shields and the NDP, 17 per cent for the Liberals and their candidate Jacquie Menezes and four per cent for Stacey Leadbetter and the Green Party."
http://www.oshawaexpress.ca/viewposting.php?view=1761
DemocraticSPACE Sept 15 Projections - see bit.ly/nAdWQx for riding-by-riding projections
LIB - 47 seats (35.8%)
PC - 40 seats (34.4%)
NDP - 20 seats (24.3%)
GRN - 0 seats (4.2%)
***
NDP HOLDS (NDP up by more than 5%) - 9
Beaches-East York - M.Prue
Hamilton Centre - A.Horwath
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - P.Miller
Kenora-Rainy River - S.Campbell
Parkdale-High Park - C.DiNovo
Nickel Belt - F.Gelinas
Timmins-James Bay - G.Bisson
Toronto-Danforth - P.Tabuns
Trinity-Spadina - R.Marchese
NDP GAINS (NDP up by more than 5%) - 7
Algoma-Manitoulin - M.Mantha
Davenport - J.Schein
Hamilton Mountain - M.Taylor
Ottawa Centre - A.Naidoo
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - M.Kozorys
Timiskaming-Cochrane - J.Vanthof
York South-Weston - P.Ferreira
LEANS NDP (too close to call, NDP up by 5% or less) - 4
London-Fanshawe - T.Armstrong
Thunder Bay-Superior North - S.Mantis
Windsor West - H.Charif
Welland - C.Forster
POSSIBLE PICK-UPS (too close to call, NDP down by 5% or less) - 2
Essex
Oshawa
COMPETITIVE (NDP down by 5-10%) - 4
Huron-Bruce
Sarnia-Lambton
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough Southwest
LONG-SHOTS (NDP down 10-15%) - 6
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Kingston & the Islands
Kitchener-Centre
Toronto Centre
Windsor-Tecumseh
York West
I would add as NDP possibilities Scarborough-Rouge River, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie and Scarborough Centre
Greg Morrow -I won't quibble between possible pick up and competative for Huron-Bruce - I think it could easily be in either category. But I will say - imagine a candidate who doesn't give up and keeps working at building the riding. Now imagine that he takes a riding from single digits into competative even in that list. Hard not to admire someone like that no matter what happens on October 6th. So here's to Grant Robertson and his team (I'm looking at you janfromthebruce) That is an amazing acheivement and a testement to the quality and values of Grant and the people around him no matter how you look at it and no matter what the election outcome holds.
September 14th:
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/09/mcguinty-drops-to-minority...
(scroll to the bottom of the post to see the riding-by-riding chart)
September 13th:
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/09/slim-mcguinty-lead-means-s...
Bramalea-Gore-Malton is a possibility as well. Jagmeet Singh is a very strong candidate who came within 500 votes of taking if federally for the NDP, and the Liberal MPP there is very low profile.