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The absence of Scarbroough-Rouge River from even a longshot category shows how strict projection methodology isn't an absolute,..
Thanks a lot but, they're so tiny I can't read them. Do you need to convert them to PDF in order to use the magnify tool? Or is there another way to get around it?
I don't know about the DS predictions. While in clear-cut cases like Davenport and YSW they're in agreement with others (electionprediction.com being one), and I'd be inclined to agree with them, in ridings where the situation is less clear, the role of polls and weighting for incumbency make the call a lot more subjective. This is a long way of saying that I think SSW should be upgraded from competitive to a possible pick-up. Also, any prediction that has Scarborough-Guildwood as competitive while completely ignoring S-RR has be treated with a great degree of caution.
I see the NDP just launched a new ad - its very subliminal and seems cut from the same cloth as the French ads federall with the hamster on the treadmill
http://ontariondp.com/en/videos/ondp-tv-ad-shoes
I test-marketed it on my wife. It got a thumbs down:
The shoes are high-heel high-fashion. So they didn't want to use "sensible flat" shoes and blue-denim, the supposed NDP-woman "image," fine. But they didn't have to go all the way to the other extreme.
Also, does the emblem of a female have to be a skirt? The visual point of the ad was the shoes. Wouldn't a pant-suit have left the focus on the shoes?
Who wears pant suits these days? That would take us back to the 70s when frumpy women wore peppermint green polysester pant suits all the time.
I found it funny, but rather flimsy. The hamster ad was cute!
The hamster as would have been even better if a big orange cat had sauntered over to the hamster cage and puts its paw on it!
Liberal twitterers/twits are making hay out of the fact that in the ad, the orange-shoed person turns their foot towards the blue person.
Well I just test marketed on my wife and adult daughter and it got a thumbs up. And they thought it was funny. So I guess it depends. It certainly stands out from all the rest.
Well I liked it - made me laugh in a good way. And I actually wear different kinds of shoes for various occasions. So yeah, as an NDP woman, I do wear heels, and especially like wearing them with jeans and my mom's pearls.
And no, I sure don't wear heels when I'm doing a foot canvas, but out for the evening, for sure.
And I never wore a pant suit. But funny, the guys' pants are really "old fashion" 70s style, so I also think the comparison is "outdated" to modern and progressive.
I noticed that too. I assumed the subliminal message was that the orange shoed person was going to kick the blue person in the shin!
I dunno how many people were left thinking of this
The ad was OK, but they should have had the woman in the orange shoes taking a step forward instead.
Also, there are 15 candidates running for the NDP who ran for the party in the May federal election:
Adam DeVita (Richmond Hill)
Ana Maria Rivero (Etobicoke Centre)
Brian White (Sarnia-Lambton)
Dave Nickle (Peterborough)
Ellen Papenburg (Perth-Wellington)
Grant Robertson (Huron-Bruce)
Ian Nichols (Haldimand-Norfolk)
Jagmeet Singh (Bramalea-Gore-Malton)
Joe Hill (Lambton-Kent-Middlesex)
Karen Marilyn Gventer (Dufferin-Caledon)
Michelle Bilek (Mississauga-Erindale)
Myrna Clark (Barrie)
Ric Dagenais (Nepean-Carleton)
Taras Natyshak (Essex)
Waseem Ahmed (Mississauga East-Cooksville)
And the Northern Ontario Heritage Party is running a candidate in St. Paul's!
I wonder how the electoral map on e-day will compare to this one.
Northern Ontario = north of Bloor?
Now there is a new poll shocker from Leger:
PC - 36%
Libs - 33%
NDP - 29%
I guess that leaves 2% for the Greens etc...
This is starting to get eerily similar to Ontario 1990 and Quebec this past May. I have to say that as much as I'm cheering for the NDP every step of the way - I hope that this surge stops right about here. If it goes any higher there is a chance that the ONDP could emerge as the biggest party and be asked to form a government and as much as I like Andrea Horwath and her team - I don't think the party is ready to govern just yet.
http://www.lfpress.com/news/ontarioelection/2011/09/18/18705281.html
Hey Stockholm, have you ever curled? Sometimes what happens in curling is that a team will deliberately let an opponent take that particular end in order to gain an advantage later on. I think in many ways, politics is similar, especially when you consider that there would only be 8 NDP Cabinet Members with enough experience to do the job, and it would be tough to learn the ropes and be in Cabinet at the same time, never mind during turbulent times. The NDP would probably endure for the longer term by being in Opposition and having some time to cut its teeth.
29%
It makes all of today's hard work - the endless driving and parking, hammering dozens of signs into hard ass soil, flyering multiple blocks - so much more satisfying.
Nice.
Tee hee. The Paramount Party website's really irritating. And an English teacher's nightmare.
I like the shoe ad. Its cute. Personally, I only wear my high heels when I'm vacuuming.
I'm sure Howard is a wonderful person, but she just seems to have more pizazz. I thinks I'm gonna have to help someone out in the east end of Trauma. Have to figure out who has a shot, whose story I like enough to sell.
Wait till Horwath and company get over 30%! When is/are the debate(s)? And who would the third place party support if the NDP finished a close first or second? The Liberals would still have the opportunity to test their support if they finished first or a strong second. I don't see anyone getting a majority at this point. Weren't the Liberals ahead in the previous set of polls?
Not exactly. A team may try to force the opponent to take one in order to regain last rock advantage for the next end, rather than allow the other team to score more than one or blank the end to retain last rock in the next end. But the other team still has to make their shots, otherwise you could steal one or more in that end, which is a good thing.
Obviously this is just one poll, there's lots of campaign to go, etc, but for argument's sake, let's say Ontario ends up in a situation similar to 1985 - where the PCs and Liberals get roughly the same number of seats on roughly the same popular vote (say approximately 40 seats each), with the NDP holding the balance of power with roughly 25% of the vote and say 20 seats. I presume the NDP would be more inclined to prop up the Liberals, but would it be an informal arrangement, an agreement to vote confidence and supply, a more formal 'accord' with specific policy commitments (a la Rae-Peterson) or a full coalition (as Rae later wished he had done)? Any thoughts?
I agree with both of you. And so would Prime Minister Stanfield, Premier Carstairs of Manitoba and Premier Chisholm of Nova Scotia.
Continued here.