babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2013 the authors
Syndicate
Do you think having Roméo Saganash running for the federal NDP leadership could help the NL NDP in Labrador West?
Not really, the aboriginal population in Labrador is all on the coast. Labrador West is all miners.
What 6 seats do you think the NDP can pick up in the St. John's Area, because I don't think with their current poll numbers 6 seats is that likely when the PC remain so popular.
Its very difficult to extrapolate the latest month-old polling numbers onto the electoral map. Supposedly the NDP is at 24% across the province - but what if they are at 45% in St. John's (their big stronghold federally) and at 13% everywhere else (as was the pattern federally). Its very hard to say until there are some breakouts.
My guess is that St. John's West, Kilbride, CBS, CBE-Bell Island, Mount Pearl North and South and Topsail are all safe PC seats. For now.
Virginia Waters: in the East End, but also includes some lower-income neighbourhoods such as Airport Heights, and stradles Signal Hill Quidi Vidi which is the only safe NDP seat in the province. When Dunderdale leaves politics, or if her popularity tanks, this should be considered target #1 for the NDP in the next election.
Cape St. Francis: the NDP's Kathleen Connors won a quarter of the vote during the 2008 by-election at the height of the PCs popularity. Note that this preceded Jack Harris's enormous win a few months later in the federal election, and preceded the Orange Wave by almost three years, so it can't be written off as just a by-election quirk. This can be a future target riding too.
St. John's Centre, East, North and South: are all potential pick ups if the NDP maintain their growth in the next three weeks. In 2007, STJC and STJE had the next highest NDP tallies in the region after SH-QV. But I think the likeliest pick up in the Northeast Avalon is Dale Kirby in STJN. He has been excellent for the party, and it will be great to see Bob Ridgley out of office.
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi: If Lorraine Michael can beat Jerome Kennedy (who now represents Carbonear) as she did in the 2006 by-election, she can beat our esteemed ex-Auditor General.
Outside the Northeast Avalon: there are some possibilities in Labrador, specifically in Lake Melville (Arlene Michelin-Pittman) and Lab West (Tom Harris). In 2007 the NDP candidate in the Bay of Islands won less than 2% of the vote, but one blog recently suggested that this time it could be a three-way race between the incumbent PC Terry Loder, former Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce, and new NDP candidate Tony Adey, who has been gunning for this seat since earlier this summer.
Burin-Placentia West looks promising. Clyde Jackman has been a dismal failure as a Fisheries Minister, and Julie Mitchell won 1/3 of the vote here in 2007, the third highest for the NDP in the province after SH-QV and Lab West. PC inattention to the fishery, Jackman's dismissing of the fisheries reform report in February, and the government bungling the Kiewit ship-building contract in Marystown could be bad news for the PCs. I wonder if Sam Synard is going to be helping Julie Mitchell in this election, or if he's going to be wearing his Liberal hat instead?
Over here, the grim view.
Thanks Newfenian. I wish we had such good intelligence on the Ontario election.
Can anyone tell us which provincial ridings the NDP would carry if the federal results are replicated? I expect they would get everything in Harris's territory and most in Cleary's and maybe a couple elsewhere. Which would be the best prospects based on the federal vote?
A bit to opptomistic. I agree Burin-Placentia West and Lab West have the potential to be close races. I've heard people say the NDP have a shot in Bay of Islands, I don't know much about the district but seeing the NDP only won 1% vote in the district last time I cann't see it being in play unless the NDP candidate is overwhelmingly popular. The NDP did get a good candidate in Lake Melville but this district will vote PC. The PC candidate is a former minister in the Nunatsiavut government and 1,200 people voted in the party's nomination, which is a huge number. As well the district is solidly behind Muskrat Falls.
Lorraine Michael will likely be safe, though John Noseworthy is better known then Jerome Kennedy was.
St. John's South will not go NDP, or Liberal for that matter, while Tom Osborne is still around, he's just way to popular. The NDP have a great candidate in St. John's Centre, but she's running against one of the top cabinet ministers in the government. St. John's North will be interesting, the NDP did not do great there in 2007 but Dale Kirby is one of the party's best candidates. The party will likely do well here but it will be tough to win. St. John's East is the best chance for a pickup, with three legitimate candidates running for each party it'll be a tough one to call. St. John's West, which for some reason you considered safe, is another one that will he hard to call with no incumbent.
Cape St. Francis is solidly PC, and I've heard that there are people who worked for the NDP and Liberals that are now helping the PC campaign. The NDP have the deputy mayor of Torbay running but he's not very well known, espeically in the neighbouring communities. He should finish a respectable second place but the distgrict isn't in play.
As well Airport Heights a low income neighbourhood??? I wouldn't consider homes that are valued at $300,000 + low income. Virginia Waters is the wealthiest district in the province and there is not much of the way in low income areas in the district, unless you consider a $300,000 home low income.
Thanks N_L, I stand corrected about Airport Heights. I was probably thinking of the northern part of Torbay Road, which is not Airport Heights, rather than the northern part of Portugal Cove Road, which is. With that said, is the Torbay Road portion of Virgina Waters still a lower income, higher density residential area as it was when I lived in St. John's a little over three years ago? Or has it too been mowed down by the post-Hebron real estate boom and replaced with a developer's paradise? :)
About my predictions, they are best case scenarios with a healthy dose of wishful thinking. I remember being elated thinking that Jack Harris in 2008 was just going to raise the profile of the federal NDP in St. John's, and come third -- maybe second -- in a close three-way race. I never dreamed that he would win with 3/4 of the vote, in one of the biggest sweeps in the country that year. There's still room for some optimism.
This was just tweeted:
"MQO Research poll: PC: 53% NDP: 29% LIB: 18%. Leaders: KD: 64% LM: 22% KA: 14% Margin: +/-4.9% Sample: 413 Date: 09/16-09/18"
The NDP at 29% more or less matches the NDP vote share in the federal election in NL. If that 29% is relatively concentrated in St. John's (which it likely is) - the NL NDP could get a mini-Quebec style surge and sweep St. John's and be quite a strong opposition while the Libs get totaly wiped off the map!
ok, CBC HAD the story up, now it says not available?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/09/20/nl-poll-results-ndp.html
With those numbers, Labrador West looks to be a solid pick-up, and so might Burin-Placentia West, maybe even some of those longer shots like Bay of Islands or Lake Melville; if that pans out and the NDP picks up 3-4 seats in SJs, look to see those two rural members front and centre too so as to give the party which is SJs centric a wider appeal and room to grow into the rural lands. This is big news that comes on the day the NDP will release their platform at 130 i believe
The headline should read "Realignment in Canadian Politics Spreads to The Rock"!
It could be that by the New Year (assuming an election in Alberta soon after the new Conservative leader is selected) the NDP will be in government, official opposition, or holding the balance of power in every province or territory where we contest elections except New Brunswick and PEI (assuming a Liberal majority there with a Conservative opposition).
With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!
That could happen, although it's never happened before in PEI (as opposed to New Brunswick).
It happened in 1935.
As well wouldn't they have to share the role of extra-parliamentary oppositon with all the parties then?
That's probably the "best case scenario" for the PEI NDP.
You are correct.
I don't know enough about how well -- if at all -- the provincial electoral boundaries align with federal electoral boundaries. But, the506.com has a list of every electoral district in Canada, with vote tallies in the 2011 general election mapped poll-by-poll. The data can also be retrieved from this Elections Canada page.
From the maps and data for St. John's South--Mount Pearl and St. John's East, it looks like Jack Harris took every single poll in SJE, and Ryan Cleary took all but 28 of 202 polls in SJS-MP. The 28 polls that Cleary lost are split between Loyola Sullivan and Siobhan Coady, with Coady taking the lion's share. Even though most of Coady's support was in the west end and Mount Pearl, it still looks like Cleary would have won the respective provincial equivalent districts (St. John's West, Mount Pearl North, and Mount Pearl South).
In other words, and to answer the original question, if the federal electoral data from May could hypothetically be transplanted on to the provincial electoral map in October, the NDP would take every district in the Northeast Avalon.
It's hard to compare the federal NDP results with what the provincial party may get. The federal NDP have done better in NL then their provincial party, in 2006 the NDP got 31,000 votes in NL and in the 2007 election the provincial NDP only got 19,000. This may be changing now but I don't think we should expect to see the same people that voted NDP in May to vote NDP in October. If it were not for Harper the Conservatives would have remained strong in St. John's and would have done better elsewhere in the province.
BUT, I think its clear that any way you slice it the NL NDP is set to massively increase its share of the province-wide popular vote compared to the 2007 election when it was just 7% - it will at worst double or triple and probably quadruple or quintuple! - chances are that there will be at least SOME correlation of increased provincial NDP support with increased federal support. If NDP support in NL goes from 7% to -say - 30% - where do you think that extra 23% is most likely to come from?? I think it is more likely to come from people who voted NDP federally than to come from people who voted Tory or liberal federally!
The Conservatives might have remained strong for a bit longer in St. John's federally in the absence of Williams ABC campaign - but I think that the federal Tory strength in St. John's was a last anachronistic vestige of a long gone era of "Maritime red Tory" traditions. Remember that Halifax used to be Bob Stanfield's riding and now its a supersafe NDP and Tory candidates there barely save their deposits. I think that given the way the federal Conservative party has evolved into more of a hard-right Alberta dominated party - it was inevitable that their strength in a relatively progressive, socially liberal and growing place like St. John's was going to fade.
St. John's now votes the way Halifax does and you won't see St. John's electing federal Tory MPs until the day you see halifax doing so. My guess is that in 2015 - you will see the NDP make a major play for Saint John and Moncton, NB to complete the set!
If Saint John runs the same candidate in 2015, Rob Moir, we have a good chance of winning the seat.
I believe you think you understand Newfoundland and Labrador politics more then you actually do. Obviously the NDP is doing much better then they have ever done before, and it is because of "Jackmania" and the fact that the Liberal Party here is in complete disarray.
What I am saying is that just because much of the NDPs success federally is in the St. John's Area doesn't necessarily mean it is provincially. The PC Party has always done very well in St. John's and much of the NDPs success federally was thanks to those Progressive Conservatives. Jack Harris' success is mainly because of who he is and not his party. Had he run for the Liberals in 2008 he would have likely got 70% of the vote as well, he has yet to face any real competition. The NDP have been stronger in St. John's West for a while now, and it's because of the NDP that weak candidate like Ryan Cleary was able to get elected.
While I believe the NDP is stronger in the St. John's Area then elsewhere in the province, I do think that there support is more spread out than what you think it is. I, as well as many pundits, do not think that at under 30% the NDP are strong enough to make big gains in seats in St. John's, let alone sweep it.
I may be wrong about this, I thought St. John's East was there best chance for a seat pickup in the St. John's area but I have been told that the PC incumbent shouldn't have any trouble holding on to his seat.
Here's a list of 10 seats to watch.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/21/nl-cochrane-10seatstowatch-nlvotes-921.html
It's nice to see Tory talking points on exhibit: NDP success is not due to the NDP, but rather it's a result of accidents and happenstance.
On the federal side, the NDP had come close to winning St. John's South Mount Pearl three times (not to mention Greg Malone in 2000) before Cleary won. And to label Cleary as a weak candidate is manifestly ridiculous. As for St. John's East, the NDP had been solidly growing in strength for eight years before Harris ran.
Provincially, the Tories are in fact deeply afraid of losing St. John's East to the NDP, and for good reason. My Tory sources say St. John's East is toast for them. They are also at risk of losing St. John's Centre, St. John's North, and Cape St. Francis. Sure, the Tories can lose fifteen to twenty points in some districts and still eke out narrow wins. But in a post-Danny era and with the Liberals approaching "extinct" status in the Avalon region, the NDP is well-positionred to win several of these seats. Other seats to watch for the NDP are Burin-Placentia West, Labrador West, as well as - if the campaign goes well - Bonavista South and Lake Melville. The NDP team is highly energized and confidence is at an all time high.
I've been told by a media reporter, that has connections within all three parties, that the PCs are expected to not have any problems holding onto St. John's East, I was quite surprised by it but this person has always been right before.
St. John's Centre is held by one of the top cabinet ministers in a government with a high approval rating, the NDP have a strong candidate but it will be very hard to knock off an incumbent cabinet minister.
You only have to drive around Cape St. Francis to see that the incumbent will have no trouble being re-elected. PC signs on lawns outnumber NDP signs on lawns probably 5 to 1, at least. The NDP candidate, while being deputy mayor of Torbay, is not well known unlike the incumbent.
"Obviously the NDP is doing much better then they have ever done before, and it is because of "Jackmania" and the fact that the Liberal Party here is in complete disarray."
We can agree that the Liberals are in disarray - but I find it curious that people try to dismiss NDP votes as somehow not being "real votes" - but just based on Jack-mania. Well couldn't we just as easily say that no one in NL REALLY voted PC in the 2007 election - they just got swept up by "Danny-mania" and now that he's not on the ballot - the PCs cannot count on one single solitary vote that they got under Danny Millions!
We hear this all the time (esp. re: Quebec) people didn't REALLY vote NDP - sure they liked the leader the best, they liked the local candidate the best, they liked such and such a policy the best - but they didn't REALLY vote NDP for any valid reason. Of course we are left to assume that when people vote for the old line Tories and Grits - somehow those votes are more valid and that those votes "count" in a way that NDP votes don't. What about all those people who vote Tory in rural parts of Atlantic Canada not because they like Harper or like their candidate or like a single Tory policy - they just vote Tory because their grandpa told them that was the way the family voted. Do those peoples vote "count" any less?
They interviewed maybe 6 people on the news the other night two people said they were voting NDP because of Jack Layton.
So what? If they interviewed 6 people in St. John's in the last election - I'll bet 6 out of 6 would say they were voting PC because of Danny Williams! That's politics.
Agreed. It is a bit rich to suggest that Jack Layton caused Ryan Cleary and/or Jack Harris to win (not policies, not ideology, not the NDP's newly popular brand, or the personal likability, campaigning and experience of either of these two pols), and then to suggest that Tom Osborne of all people is "loved", or that Shawn Skinner is a "popular cabinet minister". You can't have one and not the other.
I also agree that what's happening in Newfoundland and Labrador is not exceptional, and seems to be shaping up to be quite similar to what has been happening in Nova Scotia since the early to mid-1990s. There the NDP went from a small regional party with few seats to an urban party with a base in Halifax. It consolidated its base in its new constituencies and from there took official opposition and then government. We're seeing similar things start to happen in Newfoundland and Labrador. And of course you don't need to know the intricacies of local politics to know a rule of thumb in most democracies is that the centre-left does better in cities.
There's a larger story to be told here about social and economic changes on a more macro level in Atlantic Canada and the breakdown of patronage and the old electoral cleavages (eg. religion) and the modernization of the traditional party system. This of course is a positive thing not just for the NDP but all parties and voters.
I'd like to hear more about the situation in that riding.
Danny Williams was the leader of the PCs though, and would become premier if enough of his candidates got elected. Jack Layton isn't going to come back from grave and become leader of NDP and premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.