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Despite Navakshoff's gaffe on the flood, the person who won the PC nomination earlier was punted and is running as an independent, so the NDP should hold that one. Brandon East is looking like the NDP will squeak by, and there is a good shot at the NDP re-taking Brandon-West (which, to your point about how well the Tories need to do in Winnipeg, makes it that much harder for them). Portage and Lac du Bonnet would also definitely be in play if we were at a different point in the political cycle.
The Liberals may well take Fort Rouge, but if they do it will be entirely due to the work that Paul Hesse has done and has nothing to do with the Liberal brand itself.
If these results hold, the main take-away is that Sellinger would not have won, McFadyen would have lost. People are tired of the NDP after 12 years, but feel it better to "stick with the devil they know," especially since Manitoba has not been as hard hit by the recession as other areas, and the fact that McFadyen has not done well. Additionally, no third party has emerged to shake up the status quo, and I suspect that the Greens could very well overtake the Liberals as Manitoba's third party. This is reflected in the fact that people's impressions of all the political parties has worsened over the course of the campaign.
Looking ahead, I expect the NDP to lose in 2015. 16 years is a long time, and this is not Alberta. Additionally, Manitoba is in for a tough time, considering that more economic fall-out is around the corner and the bill for this year's flood has yet to come. I also have a strong suspicion that Harper will cut severely cut transfer payments in the coming years, and I expect that Manitoba especially will be targeted in that regard. We'll probably see something similar to what happened in Saskatchewan, in that I expect support for the Manitoba NDP to collapse below the Tories in the next year and to stay there.
I can only hope in this climate that the NDP manages to defeat Sam Katz municipally in 2014 and can also send the majority of Manitoba's Conservative MPs packing in 2015.
Just saw the Brandon Sun headline for Friday September 30, 2011. In big bold letters, it reads:
"NDP 4-PEAT?"
Good point about Brandon West. The Tories are also defending a very slim majority of 50 votes in River East, so that's not in the bag for them either.
I have usually been pretty impressed with Paul Hesse as a candidate (regardless of party affiliation) and as a spokesman/activist for urban issues. I would have liked to have seen him run for City Council, rather than running against one of the NDP's more progressive/left-leaning ministers in Jen Howard. I think he will do well, and against a weaker candidate I think he would very likely win, but everyone thought he had a real shot in Fort Rouge last time when it was an open seat, and Jen Howard still won fairly comfortably. This time he's running against an incumbent cabinet minister and the Liberals are polling in single digits. We might be surprised on election night, but right now I just don't see it.
To make things worse for the Liberals, John Harvard and Anita Neville have both issued a statement endorsing Theresa Oswald over Gord Steeves in Seine River. Harvard also issued a statement endorsing Sharon Blady in Kirkfield Park. Both have urged Liberals to vote 'strategically' for the NDP in those ridings to ensure the Tories don't win. What's left of the federal party in Manitoba is basically abandoning the provincial wing.
I'm starting to think it might almost be better for the Liberals if Gerrard loses his seat - he would have to resign as leader more or less immediately and that would open the door to some fresh blood like Hesse taking the reins. As it stands, the Liberals are facing total irrelevance - they have slid all the way down to Doug Lauchlan territory (and if you get that reference, you know way too much about Manitoba politics!)
Hesse has had more time to make himself known in his community. Having said that, I think this is more or less correct. While the Liberals have raised pertinent issues like cuts in community policing and rapid transit, most people who follow those issues closely will place the blame on Sam Katz rather than the province. The province can support municipal initiatives and provide incentives, but ultimately cannot force the City of Winnipeg to do anything. As for Hesse, it is too bad that his party affiliation is not helping him, and I agree that with the issues he has raised that civic politics would be a much better fit. He was actually going to run in the civic by-election to replace Brenda Leipsic, but stepped aside for John Orlikow.
If you look at the polling, the Greens are actually statistically tied with the Liberals, and the Greens aren't even running a full slate. I strongly suspect that the Greens will emerge from this election as Manitoba's new third party, given how much trouble the Liberal brand is in.
Is there such a thing as knowing too much about Manitoba politics? :p
He was the Liberal leader in the 1981 general election. (Okay, I didn't actually know that, I had to check Wikipedia.)
And now, crystal ball time. Here's how this prediction works: Any riding not named is predicted to stay with the same party, those ridings that are named are predicted to change from 2007. The changes include:
Brandon West: PC ---> NDP
Tyndall Park: Liberal ---> NDP
River East: PC ---> NDP
Kirkfield Park: NDP ---> PC
River Heights: Liberal ---> PC
Riel: NDP ---> PC
St. Norbert: NDP ---> PC
Showing a net swing from 2007 of:
NDP even
PC +2
Liberals -2
Leaving us with:
NDP 38
PC 21
Liberals eliminated
Any other predictions?
He was also a candidate in Calgary during the 1979 Federal Election. I remember his print ads: "Hello, I'm Doug Lauchlan."
Aristotle, from the beginning of your post, you've predicted they won't change hands, but I'm interested as to who you're perceiving as holding the seats of Dawson Trail and La Verendrye. I seem to remember reading that Ron Lemieux is running in Dawson Trail, since his current riding of La Verendrye was drastically changed in the last redistribution, and he thought he'd be more easily re-elected there (Dawson Trail) than in La Verendrye. And, in all honesty, I don't see very many people seriously predicting that the NDP will hold La Verendrye (Dawson Trail is more contested, predictions-wise).
The Tories will win La Verendrye easily. I expect Lemieux to hold on to Dawson Trail. The result is a wash for the parties because although the Tories nominally 'gain' La Verendrye, they lose a seat in southwest Manitoba (Minnedosa) because of redistribution.
I can't really disagree with any of Aristotle's predictions (except I think he meant NDP 36, PC 21) although I'm not so optimistic about the NDP taking River East and I think the overall result will be somewhat closer to the 1999 election. I think the window of opportunity in River East was there in 2007 when the Tories got an anemic 28 percent in Winnipeg, but with them bouncing back (such as it is) to around 35 percent, Mitchelson should scrape through again. I didn't think Riel was more vulnerable than say Southdale or Seine River, but it wouldn't shock me as Christine Melnick is by far the weakest cabinet minister.
I made that call because of the politics of active transportation.
I dunno. I admit I haven't lived there for a decade, but people in North Kildonan were pretty car-obsessed when I lived there. A few speed bumps were enough to end the career of Mark Lubosch, but I'd be surprised if a promise to create a safe crossing for a bike trail had the same kind of traction.
That being said, I am sure that Kurt Penner, who I have known for many years and who I know to be a very hard worker, has been diligently working the riding since his near-miss last time. And it may be that voters finally decide that Bonnie has passed her best-before date - she's been there for 25 years after all. Hard to say how the boundary tweaks will change things - the riding picked up some NDP-friendly territory along Donwood Drive from Rossmere, but there have also been a lot of McMansions going up in the new subdivisions along Headmaster and Bonner between Gateway and DeVries.
Ghoris, are you familiar with the bike path built on what used to be the Marconi rail line? That path basically ends at the Perimeter. There are also bike path improvements in Birds Hill Provincial Park, including a bridge that crosses Highway 59 and is on the same side of Highway 59 as the Marconi trail. Certainly Kildonan doesn't fit the urban/cycling/hippie kind of area that you would expect in Wolseley or Fort Rouge, but biking in Birds Hill Provincial Park is a popular activity. For cyclists to currently try and cross the Perimeter is dangerous, and I could easily see this idea resonating in the area, especially for those who may wish to take children with them, even if they drive their SUVs all over the city for work during the week.
I'm quite familiar with the bike path because it is within sight of my parents' house. It seems to be reasonably popular (at least for the four months of the year when it's pleasant to bike outside). The idea might get some traction, but I'll bet you dollars to donuts most of the people who bike in Birds' Hill Park are throwing the bikes in the back of the SUV and driving up there, and are going to continue to do so regardless of whether there's a crossing at the Perimeter or not. I'm not saying it's not a good idea or that it won't be a vote-getter, I just don't think it's likely to be a 'headline-grabbing' promise in most people's minds.
dp.
tp.
I wasn't aware that Election Act changes meant that we no longer receive voter registration cards, and instead, everyone is now enumerated before all provincial elections. I found this out yesterday when I was asking about my voter registration card. When I inquired today at Elections Manitoba, they claimed that 18 units had been enumerated in our building. We have [edited: 31] units.
I phoned my NDP constituency office to let them know, and the woman answering the phone said "well, apartment buildings can be very hard to enumerate..." (there isn't an appropriate emoticon for this except "omfg")
I phoned the NDP provincial head office and the woman on the phone there didn't seem to understand the implications either. She told me I could phone the constituency office and/or Elections Manitoba to find out where I vote. (I already know where I vote.) I asked her to consider the possibility that ours is not the only apartment building that has not been properly enumerated. She said "well, you must have had candidates coming through there." No. "Nobody was in the building?" The Liberals dropped off some pamphlets. "Well, most people know where to go vote." WTF? Do they think apartment dwellers only vote liberal and conservative or something? I'm in West Broadway. Probably not.
This is a serious breakdown of communications on Elections Manitoba's part, and a serious breakdown of basic comprehension on the NDP's part.
No they're not. Elections Manitoba buzzes the caretaker's number and announces him or herself. By law, they must let them in. They then go and knock on all the doors and ask the relevant questions. If nobody's home, they slip something under the door saying the occupant, "sorry I missed you, but you need to register to vote, here's how."
Do you know of anyone else who has had a similar experience? You should definitely say something about it.
I will pursue this, Aristotleded. Any suggestions as to who I should contact who I haven't already? And isn't it bizarre the reaction I got from both NDP offices??
How far up the Elections Manitoba food chain have you gone? Maybe you should find some other people this happened to and get rabble.ca to publish it?
edited.
I think part of the problem is that the NDP assumes they are going to win your area anyways, and are "picking their battles." If this happened in the south end of the city or in Brandon, I think you would get a much different response. I'm not saying that's right, but that's unfortunately how things go when the crunch comes.
Yes, I think that's true. Plus it being the day before election. I was mainly commenting on the obtuseness of the NDP office personnel.
However, if it can be shown that ours was not the only building that was incompletely enumerated, isn't there a legal problem here?
Thanks for the report, jas. I actually thought they did away with door-to-door enumeration some time ago, instead relying on the national register of electors which is updated through data gathered from Revenue Canada, HRDC, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "voter registration cards" - are you talking about the card you get in the mail from Elections Manitoba showing you where and when to go vote? If so, I am surprised that they would not send out these voting cards. I recall our family being enumerated in Manitoba in the past and we always got polling cards in the mail to bring with us to vote, so we knew where to go and what polling subdivision we were in. (In my experience, the voting cards are intended to help the DROs as much as the voters.)
Hugh has been spending a lot of time lately in what he has identified as five 'targets' for the PCs in Winnipeg: Assiniboia, Radisson, Rossmere, St. James and St. Vital. I suspect these are 'second-tier' targets since I would have thought that seats like Dawson Trail, Kirkfield Park, Seine River, Southdale and St. Norbert were the most vulnerable. Even out of this group, St. Vital is quite safe for the NDP, and Radisson should be reasonably safe. Rossmere used to be a very competitive NDP-PC seat in the past but has not been close since 1999. Assiniboia will be a lot closer this time, I expect, but Jim Rondeau has a huge personal following in the riding and parachute candidate Susan Auch has a huge mountain of nearly 3,000 votes to overcome. St. James is competitive because it is an open seat, but I give the NDP a slight edge at the moment.
I have been labouring over my predictions for tomorrow. I was thinking it was going to be a real squeaker along the lines of 30 NDP to 27 Tories, but going seat-by-seat, I am having a hard time seeing how the Tories get more than 6 net gains. There is definitely a 'time for a change' sentiment out there, but I don't think the Tories have closed the deal to really motivate people to actually get out and vote against the NDP. From what I read in the media, a lot of people who have indicated they are going to vote Conservative have also said they are holding their noses, which means that many of them may simply stay home. Turnout will likely be low which historically has tended to favour incumbents. Plus I think we might see some additional last-minute leakage of what's left of the Liberal vote to the NDP, following the Harvard/Neville endorsement.
I am probably predicting with my heart rather than my head here, but my final numbers, for what they are worth, are NDP 32, PC 25, Liberal 0.
NDP: Assiniboia, Brandon East, Burrows, Concordia, Dawson Trail, Elmwood, Flin Flon, Fort Garry-Riverview, Fort Richmond, Fort Rouge, Gimli, Interlake, Kewatinook, Kildonan, Logan, Minto, Point Douglas, Radisson, Riel, Rossmere, Seine River, Selkirk, St. Boniface, St. James, St. Johns, St. Vital, Swan River, The Maples, The Pas, Thompson, Transcona, Tyndall Park, Wolseley.
PC: Agassiz, Arthur-Virden, Brandon West, Charleswood, Dauphin, Emerson, Fort Whyte, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye, Lac du Bonnet, Lakeside, Midland, Morden-Winkler, Morris, Portage La Prairie, Riding Mountain, Riel, River East, River Heights, Southdale, Spruce Woods, St. Norbert, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo.
Liberals: Goose egg!
An Angus Reid poll out today almost exactly mirrors the Probe poll: NDP 46, PC 43, Liberals 8, Greens 3.
The NDP leads in Winnipeg with 51%, while the Tories dominate rurally with 53%.
The Tories' retention rate from 2007 is 88% versus the NDP's 78%. The Liberal and Green retention rates are dismal - the Liberals have held only half their 2007 vote and the Greens only a third. This suggests to me that the NDP has managed to squeeze some more votes out of what's left of the Liberal party to offset former NDP voters defecting to the Tories.
There is some troubling news for the NDP in that Tory support is firmer (82% of declared Tory voters will stick with them vs. 75% of NDP voters). Fully half of Liberal voters say they may yet change their minds before tomorrow. This could be a real wild card when it's this close.
I don't understand it either. Having that physical piece in the mail helps bring more attention to the election, which, this year, could be easily missed by many.
Anyway, I'm a moron. I miscounted the units in my building (they number 1 - 38, plus basement units, but there are only eight per floor and four floors!
).
EM's only error may have been simply that they didn't leave appropriate notification for several of us that they'd been by.
(Not only that, I didn't even notice that I'd posted the same message three times today.)
Editing my posts to prevent any future reference to my moron-ity.
Ghoris, I'm curious why you think Dauphin and Brandon West will go PC tomorrow night?
Just a gut feeling. I could be totally wrong on both of those, but for the last two elections we have seen a real polarization between Winnipeg and the rest of the province, with Winnipeg being more and more likely to vote NDP and the rest of the province (outside of the North) more and more likely to vote Conservative. If the Tories are polling at 53% outside the Perimeter, and are basically not on the radar screen in the North, then it stands to reason that they are gaining votes somewhere. Dauphin was a relatively close call last time (900 votes), much closer than 'traditional' rural swing seats like Gimli. I think the Tories have the edge in Brandon West as an incumbent seat that has traditionally voted Tory since its creation (1981, 1999 and 2003 being the only exceptions).
In the old days, it was a straight-up north-south division both inside Winnipeg and out, and the swing seats all fell right along the dividing line. But in the last two elections, we've seen rural seats that the NDP would traditionally win when it formed the government (such as Lac du Bonnet, Springfield, Ste. Rose) have stayed resolutely in the Tory category to the point where all of these seats are now out of reach for the NDP. Traditionally 'safe' rural NDP seats like Dauphin and Selkirk have become less so in recent election cycle. As you and I have discussed at length, the NDP's strength in Brandon East has been slowly but steadily eroding in the past 15 years to the point where a formerly safe seat has become competitive. Meanwhile, inside the Perimeter, you've got the NDP winning formerly 'safe as houses' Tory seats like Kirkfield Park, Assiniboia, Fort Garry, Southdale, St. Norbert and Seine River that the NDP wouldn't have dared dream it could win a decade ago. I think the political ground is shifting in Manitoba and from now on we are going to be seeing a pattern similar to Saskatchewan, with polarization on an urban-rural basis.
I would hope that we don't go down the same road Saskatchewan did, because what we see in Saskatchewan makes it very difficult for the NDP to win, given the large number of rural seats. The federal election showed that racking up majorities in the cities and crossing your fingers doesn't work.
As for the numbers there, what I hope that means is that the PCs will only win with larger margins in seats they already hold. I'm not sure if the voters in Dauphin want to throw out their Cabinet representation, with polls suggesting that the province's major population centre will re-elect this government. I've also argued that the star of the NDP is rising in Brandon, with the election of Shari Decter-Hirst to the mayor's chair, and if she keeps on her current path, she will be Brandon's mayor as long as she wants. Waddell is coming on strong in Brandon East, but it has more to do with a personal appeal than anything else. Speaking of Brandon East, it's quite obvious that Caldwell will never see the inside of the NDP Cabinet again, so the only way for Brandon to be represented at the Cabinet table is to vote for Jim Murray. Portage has also shown NDP strength in recent elections, and if the NDP was at a different point in the political cycle, it would almost certainly go NDP.
I'm not willing to write off the rural areas yet. Just 2 elections ago, the NDP was thought to have serious chances of breaking through in the rural southwest, and I wonder how history might have changed if that breakthrough materialized, and I live in hope with the rise of the NDP fortunes in Brandon. Portage will probably elect an NDP MLA one day if the NDP keeps working at it, and who knows if increased spending in areas like health care, the medical school in Brandon (McFadyen actually gaffed by suggesting it might not be feasible), and infrastructure may soften some of the hard opposition the NDP faces.
Wow that is gonna be a real nailbiter of an election night!
Manitoba NDP’s ‘Harper-esque’ ads could help the party earn its fourth consecutive majority
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/manitoba-ndp-harper-esque...
I've just looked through old constituency boundaries courtesy of Wikipedia, from 1969 onwards. It looks to me like the North has been losing population and clout. For example, while St. Rose may have once been winnable for the NDP, it has now been lumped into the much larger Aggasiz constituency, which extends all the way south to Highway 1. Dauphin has been taking on more of the Tory polls, hence the name Dauphin-Roblin. I suspect Springfield is now more of a bedroom community for rich people who want country living while commuting to Winnipeg (there was recently a controversey in that area over a group home going in). Sure things are changing in Winnipeg, but I think the NDP component of those northern ridings you mentioned is becoming more diluted.