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Ontario 2011 election campaign 5

MegB
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Joined: Nov 28 2001

Continuing from here.


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MegB
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Olly
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Joined: Nov 28 2002

When do we start posting predictions....?


NorthReport
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howeird beale
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Joined: Jan 14 2011

 

Quote:

the momentum that came out of the federal election was putting wind under our wings from very early on.

 

arrrggghhh! I hate that song!

That's it. I'm voting Tory Tongue out


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Some replies from previous thread:

 

Nicky-- Forum research poll is massive and very accurate no doubt about general trends and specific ridings that are not close. However no poll can determine where close races are going to go. 24 of the ridings in the Forum poll - your post 95 - were within 5% by my rough count. I'm not sure that a poll can be relied on for individual ridings where the gaps are as much as 10% but I certainly do not believe 5%. We should look back to this and compare final results to the forum poll and see how useful that massive poll actually was over regular polls. I think pollsters are trying to take on more than they can really do.Unfortunately they will just blame so-called last minute shifts for any inaccuracy so they will never be held accountable for pretending to be more accurate than they really are.

Debator-- It is bad form to blame the parties who did get votes for the fact that your party did not get votes. It is presumptive and insulting to voters. The Conservative majority in the Spring is because either the Liberals or NDP did not get enough votes not because either of them got too many. People fled the Liberal party in all directions-- you should be grateful if you don't like Harper that the NDP was able to pick up a lot of those votes and unhappy that the NDP did not pick up more. Otherwise you should consider why the Liberals lost all those votes. Perhaps you could consider that it is attitudes that presume the vote was stolen from its rightful place in the Liberal party that are to blame. Had the NDP gotten fewer votes there are a good many ridings that went NDP that would have gone Conservative.

On the left-- You are right a majority could happen easily. Given how close so many seats are an extra effort could turn many seats. Clearly the party with the greatest membership in numbers will have the advantage. I think that might be the Liberals at this point. If they are able to turn all the marginals in their direction they could change the campaign. As well, we have seen no polling on how popular a minority would be or whether people would feel it would be unstable. (Nor do we know how much this was a factor in the last campaign federally.) If a small number of people decide they want a more stable government rather than a more representative one along with people afraid of splitting the vote and allowing the PCs a win (as some are claiming happened federally) then this could inflate the Liberals by a couple key percentage points delivering a majority. There is a real risk this could happen. The PCs ironically don't seem to have the numbers for a majority themselves even with a last minute shift when you look at seats but the Liberals are close. That said a small move away from the Liberals could also tank them although I think that is unlikely.

Janfrom the Bruce-- I agree with your point that such detailed polls could advantage a party with the resources to take that advantage. However, it is known that parties usually pay big bucks for internals such as these so that would like be in play anyway. Perhaps as you seem to suggest the poll is due to a desire to make these public to inspire workers to pull harder. I am not convinced that it helps the Liberals that much though because in many cases it could also expose how close the NDP are to taking a seat while showing that the PCs are not in it. There are a good many that might convince people to run from the NDP to the Libs to keep out a PC but just as many where they might feel the relief the PC is far back and that they can go NDP. It could be a neutral effect in that regard. But still the push for volunteers has become a public one for all parties in tight races and some have greater resources to bring. I do think polling sells papers and that itself is a motivation.

Howard-- Good observation. Parties with greater numbers of members produce bigger rallies even than parties with more votes. Only when you have a special rock-star like feel to a campaign can you get bigger numbers than your membership. Layton ended up doing that. In this campaign I would not look at rally size for anything more than the strength of the campaign base and organization which does matter but does not always translate.

David Young- I can't see spillover having much effect. The people who pay much attention to other provinces are the same people who are so politically tuned they won't be moved by such things.

 


A political
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Joined: Sep 19 2005

Well here are my predictions

Liberal   54

PC        37

NDP      16

No Tories seats in Toronto.


edmundoconnor
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What is very clear is that Ontario marks the last stand of the Liberal brand, insofar that it helps the federal Liberals. The BC and Quebec Liberals are so divorced from the federal party, that their relative fortunes do not have any bearing federally. The PEI Liberals will not help any Liberal renaissance. The Liberals are dead, or effectively dead, in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and NL. If the Liberals falter in Ontario, the abyss beckons.


edmundoconnor
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A political wrote:

Well here are my predictions

Liberal   54

PC        37

NDP      16

No Tories seats in Toronto.

That would make the Liberals technically in a minority situation, since one Liberal will become Speaker and does not count to their totals, except in the event of a tied vote.


Krago
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Latest EKOS Poll (Oct. 2-3)

All Voters: Lib 39.1%, PC 29.1%, NDP 24.5%, Green 6.0%, Others 1.4%

Likely Voters: Lib 39.6%, PC 31.9%, NDP 22.1%, Green 5.3%, Others 1.0%

2007 Election: Lib 42.3%, PC 31.6%, NDP 16.8%, Green 8.0%, Others 1.3%


Lens Solution
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EKOS poll seems high for the Liberals.  And I notice their Green numbers are higher than some other polls too.


OnTheLeft
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What the hell is wrong with people.

First they flock to Harper to stop an NDP government, and now if EKOS is correct, they are prepared to hand McGuinty a third majority? If so, then what happened to all of that McGuinty anger?

I suppose the only consolation in this apparent scenario is that a McGuinty win will make right-wing heads explode.


theleftyinvestor
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edmundoconnor wrote:

A political wrote:

Well here are my predictions

Liberal   54

PC        37

NDP      16

No Tories seats in Toronto.

That would make the Liberals technically in a minority situation, since one Liberal will become Speaker and does not count to their totals, except in the event of a tied vote.

 

Not necessarily. They don't have to choose a Liberal as Speaker, do they? It's by secret ballot. If the numbers turn out that completely divided, the Liberals could well "nudge" their caucus towards choosing a non-Liberal for the job. Of course, the NDPs and PCs could similarly have a vested interest in making sure that Speaker is a Liberal.


Aristotleded24
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edmundoconnor wrote:
What is very clear is that Ontario marks the last stand of the Liberal brand, insofar that it helps the federal Liberals. The BC and Quebec Liberals are so divorced from the federal party, that their relative fortunes do not have any bearing federally. The PEI Liberals will not help any Liberal renaissance. The Liberals are dead, or effectively dead, in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and NL. If the Liberals falter in Ontario, the abyss beckons.

Even so, the Liberal brand in BC and Quebec is in deep trouble as well, and as McGuinty may yet form a majorioty, it seems certain that he will lose seats. What's noteworthy is the decline in the Liberal brand in every provincial election that has occured since 2010, and looking ahead, the Liberals in Alberta don't seem to have much hope.


Stockholm
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This will motivate you to get out and vote for the Ontario NDP!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oc7U40DWxc&feature=player_embedded


Lord Palmerston
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My prediction is Liberals 45 seats, PCs 40, NDP 22

NDP pickups will be: 

Algoma-Manitoulin, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Windsor West, York South-Weston

 


Stockholm
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Final Ipsos poll:

Liberals - 41%

PC - 31%

NDP - 25%

Green - 3%

Remember - it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Liberals to win if the NDP is over 20%!

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/20eXcg/www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressre...

I think that with this Liberal surge and Tory collapse but the NDP still very strong - some Liberal ridings like Ottawa Centre or Windsor West might be less winnable - but now the NDP may have a much better shot at some NDP/Tory races like Oshawa or Essex or even Sarnia Lambton.


ghoris
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If the Liberals are 10 points ahead of the Tories, how is it 'impossible' for them to win with the NDP over 20%? The Liberal and PC numbers are almost identical to the 2007 results, with the only difference being the NDP is up and the Greens are down.

It's disappointing that the NDP has not been able to chip away at the Liberals more - McGunity is not that well-liked and people say they want a change, yet these numbers suggest the Liberals will win another majority and the NDP seems to be stalled at 25%.

The Tories appear to be in free-fall and their numbers may not have found the floor yet. Is there any chance the NDP could eclipse them for Official Opposition?


Stockholm
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ghoris wrote:

If the Liberals are 10 points ahead of the Tories, how is it 'impossible' for them to win with the NDP over 20%?

I was being sarcastic! I think it shows that the way to defeat Tories is to convince people NOT to vote for them - this obsession with "vote splitting" is a useless distraction.

I think that the NDP is taking votes from the Liberals in some areas and the Liberals are taking some ex-Green and ex-Tory votes in other areas and the NDP is also taking some Tory votes from people who find Hudak creepy.

If in fact 2/3 of the Green vote from 2007 shifted to the NDP - it would be quite ironic given all the buzz about how supposedly the NDP had "betrayed" the enevironmental movement by wanting to remove the HST from gas and home heating!


Lord Palmerston
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Stockholm wrote:
I think it shows that the way to defeat Tories is to convince people NOT to vote for them - this obsession with "vote splitting" is a useless distraction.

Very true.  This bears repeating wherever the strategic voting argument is raised.  


Aristotleded24
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ghoris wrote:
If the Liberals are 10 points ahead of the Tories, how is it 'impossible' for them to win with the NDP over 20%? The Liberal and PC numbers are almost identical to the 2007 results, with the only difference being the NDP is up and the Greens are down.

It's disappointing that the NDP has not been able to chip away at the Liberals more - McGunity is not that well-liked and people say they want a change, yet these numbers suggest the Liberals will win another majority and the NDP seems to be stalled at 25%.

The Tories appear to be in free-fall and their numbers may not have found the floor yet. Is there any chance the NDP could eclipse them for Official Opposition?

I think what it comes down to is that people are deeply afraid of Hudak, and whatever reservations they have against McGuinty, at least he's the devil they know. As good a job as Andrea does, remember that given the relative strengths of the parties, the only way for the NDP to have a significant amount of influence was for the PCs to do well enough to knock the liberals back into minority/third place territory. As the third party in a legislature with a massive majority, they simply are not going to get the attention that's needed to percolate in voter's minds in between elections. Don't forget that stability has a massive appeal, and the only way to get that in Ontario is to vote Liberal. It's that desire for stability that Harper successfully appealed to.

I also think that the federal Liberals realize how critical Ontario is to them and have pulled out all the stops to help.

That said, there are still a couple of more days, and things can change. From all the predictions I've seen, the worst case scenario is a slim Liberal majority.


MegB
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The vote-splitting/strategic voting meme has always been complete rubbish.  It's something put out by the party that feels most threatened during any given election campaign.  It should be ignored by all sensible people.

The best case scenario for Ontario is a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition.  The Libs talk the progressive talk, and the NDP makes them walk the walk.  McGuinty is on the record saying that Horwath will "force" an election if his party wins a minority.  They're very nervous - I'm sure the federal results have them all planning their exit strategy.

I think you'll find that more PC votes go to the Green party than NDP. It's a better ideological fit.


OnTheLeft
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I really hope McGuinty doesn't weasel out a slim majority, as it will be quite depressing, especially with the NDP polling around 25%. FPTP makes a mockery of the vote.

If it's a Liberal minority, it will provide a tremendous opportunity for Horwath/the NDP to have a much larger profile in the provincial media and for the voters to get much more acquainted with her. Certainly that will provide a much stronger platform for the NDP in the next provincial election.


Stockholm
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Maybe the Tory meltdown will continue and the NDP will become official opposition to a Liberal majority government!


toaster
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Does anyone have a pic of Andrea like the one of Jack Layton that had hope on the bottom? 

 


NorthReport
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Sounds about right.

Rebecca West wrote:

The vote-splitting/strategic voting meme has always been complete rubbish.  It's something put out by the party that feels most threatened during any given election campaign.  It should be ignored by all sensible people.

The best case scenario for Ontario is a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition.  The Libs talk the progressive talk, and the NDP makes them walk the walk.  McGuinty is on the record saying that Horwath will "force" an election if his party wins a minority.  They're very nervous - I'm sure the federal results have them all planning their exit strategy.

I think you'll find that more PC votes go to the Green party than NDP. It's a better ideological fit.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

I think there is an anti-NDP vote out there in Ontario. It was with Hudak but has moved to the Liberals to prevent a minority with NDP holding the balance of power. I think that anti NDP vote which could be as high as 5% has been trying to figure out which way to go and has decided Hudak is out of the game. Add to that a 5% that is right wing enough to consider Hudak but is turned off by either the homophobic and immigrant attacks or turned off by the incompetence of making those attacks. Those two explain a sudden 10% opening up. In fact if Hudak had opened up 5% on McGuinty he might have been able to get the anti NDP vote for himself.

Things will be tight-- The Liberals could come up with a majority and the NDP could be staring at a pile of near misses-- or things could go much better. If the PC vote really melts down the FPTP system could create a series of disasters. Every vote will count as I predict that 5000 votes distributed in the right or wrong places will decide between a majority rout and a minority. There will be lots of close races.

If the Ipsos poll is right and the NDP get 24% and the PCs 29% the NDP will likely have more seats than the PCs but it could be very unpretty for both parties...


Life, the unive...
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Ontario is a collection of regions.  Any polling that doesn't recognize that isn't worth squat.  In the current strength/weakness in regions for all the parties situation, the seat count could be rather unpredictable.


Sean in Ottawa
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Rebecca West wrote:

I think you'll find that more PC votes go to the Green party than NDP. It's a better ideological fit.

Actually I don't believe this.

The PC votes that are ideological will stay with the PCs and not go anywhere. It is those who are not ideological but against this government, the HST or angry in general that could move. Then there are those who vote out of fear-- they could move.

We should be aware that there are many motivations for voting and ideology is not the prime one for vote switchers as most people who are more ideological are more loyal to their 1st party of choice. Those who vote from fear could be people fearing an NDP or PC government or a minority or majority government.

Finally the Green voters and NDP voters are much closer to each other in motivation even though the leadership and policies of the parties are poles apart. In fact there are a good many Green NDP switchers out there who imagine the Greens to be more progressive than they are. Even more confusing is the fact that there are a number of very progressive Green candidate even who are drunk on the same kool-aid. I have met and agreed with several Green candidates on many issues and been surprised at the gap between where they are and the leadership of their party. This is in part because the Green membership is in fact all over the road when it comes to ideology in spite of their fairly right wing leadership core. Secondly the Greens often lack candidates and will take any green candidate with enviro creds even though their politics could be polar opposites. This is one reason I feel that if the Greens ever ad a caucus it could implode in disagreements on very fundamental things.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Ontario is a collection of regions.  Any polling that doesn't recognize that isn't worth squat.  In the current strength/weakness in regions for all the parties situation, the seat count could be rather unpredictable.

Exactly.

And this is where soemof the concerns are. If the PC vote collapses in the GTA and some other places-- the NDP could discover it needs almost 50% of the vote to win when last time 35-38% was enough. Depending on where the PC collapse is occurring the NDP can pick and or lose seats. Some results could be shocking as the NDP could lose very strong seats as PC vote runs Liberal but actualy take some more PC seats with a lower vote when those turn in to 3-way races.

A PC meltdown if it is deep enough could give the NDP Oshawa while losing more traditional seats like even PHP. (I think PHP will go NDP but I think you see what I mean.) Even Northern seats that were tilting to the NDP could still go Liberal if the PC vote collapses.


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