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That article is ridiculous. Calling someone out on their party's track record - how "Harper-esque"! :rolleyes:
It takes a fair degree of intellectual dishonesty to compare the NDP's ads to the "Just Visiting" attack ads lauched against Ignatieff. The distinction between attacking someone's policies and attacking them personally seems to be lost on the author.
There are some very key differences though. 60% of the population of Manitoba live sin Winnipeg - Saskatchewan is much less dominated by Regina and Saskatoon. Manitoba also has 4 or 5 remote northern ridings that are supersafe NDP - Saskatchewan just has two.
Naturally I would love to see the NDP win more seats in rural MB - but the fact is that the Tories are the ones with a really big problem not being able to crack Wpg or the north. I'd rather be in the NDP's position than theirs. Every redistribution will see a seat added in Wpg and one subtracted from the depopulating rural areas.
BTW: Here are the full results of the Angus-Reid poll. Its worth noting that their last poll on vote intention in MB back in June gave the Tories a 12 point lead!
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.03_Manitoba...
Stockholm, I know you don't think rural voters matter, and parties do have different levels of strength in different regions, but any party that writes off large regions of a particular area are in for trouble. The fact is, Winnipeg has approximately half of the seats in the Legislature, and the attitudes of the suburbanites are very right-wing. These people are the reason Sam Katz was re-elected as mayor, despite his well-documented mis-steps on nearly every issue that Winniepg faces. Also, the way Winnipeg is developing and growing is giving more strength to the right-wing suburbs while the left-wing urban areas are losing clout. My MLA practically had her constituency eliminated in the re-distrubution, while that same re-distrubution put many Tory-friendly polls into a previously safe NDP seat while leaving the other safe Tory seats in Winnipeg intact. As for the "safe" northern seats, see my previous post about the NDP areas of the North losing clout as re-distribution drags those boundaries further south. And the fact is, the NDP almost won seats in the rural southwest 8 years ago.
I agree with you that it's dangerous to write off whole regions and that the NDP should not completely turn its back on rural voters. That being said, even in the high-water-mark election of 2003 (in terms of rural support), just one rural seat changed hands (Gimli - a bellweather that bucked the trend in 99). I'm all for trying to reach out to voters in southern Manitoba, but getting nothing but the middle finger in return time and again gets a little tiresome after a while.
Rural results from 2003:
Arthur-Virden: 42%
Lac du Bonnet: 45%
Lakeside: 39%
Minnedosa: NDP loses by 13 votes
Portage la Prairie: 42%, same in 2007
Russell: 41%
I get the frustration about the NDP not doing well in rural areas, having lived in Brandon for a good number of years. But these are very strong results. Look at Portage, where the NDP did very well the last 2 times in what is traditionally an NDP dead zone. The needle is moving slowly, but I think under the right conditions, they can move into the NDP column, and I still think that strong NDP showings in Brandon and Portage may have a halo effect on surrounding areas.
You also have to remember that in rural constituencies, incumbency and local party networks play a larger role than party ideology and provincial leaders, because social life is far more inter-connected than what you would find in a city. Conversely, a party wave in one direction or the other can easily take out a hard-working MLA in an urban area simply by being in the wrong party. Some of these PC guys have been around a long time, and would have a huge advantage regardless. Look at Minnedosa, where the PCs almost lost the seat in 2003 because the incumbent had stepped down, and yet held the seat more comfortably in 2007 because the PC MLA had 4 years to make herself known to people. And for the NDP to have strong results like those in PC incumbent seats is pretty impressive.
Fair enough, but as they say, close is only good enough in horseshoes and hand grenades. In 2007 the NDP was generally down across the board in rural Manitoba, Portage being an exception. And I'd venture to guess that the NDP's recent strength in Portage and Brandon vis-a-vis other constituencies outside the Perimeter has more than a little to do with the fact that these seats are each centred on a single large population centre and are not particularly 'rural' in that sense. A constituency like Brandon West has a lot more in common with, say, Assiniboia than it does with the Spruce Woods constituency that surrounds it.
Bump! It's election day!
Interesting to note that in a national ARS poll from ~1 month ago, Selinger had the 3rd highest approval rating of any premier in the country! And that helps bring the party preference votes up.
More interesting is that on the economy, job creation, and managing the deficit the NDP LEADS the PC's! These are all so-called right-wing issues, which one would expect the PC's to lead in.
And the MB PC leader is a dud. No wonder so many moderate voters, esp. in Winnipeg, who might be natural PC supporters are now comfortably aligned with the NDP. What's not to like?
I had predicted that the NDP will win a 4-peat before the election began. Gonna be a fun night!
Polls close 8 PM Manitoba time?
How's voter turnout? Heavy?
Is your coverage streaming online anywhere?
I think they're pulling the vote ;o)
Despite the high advanced poll turnout and a beautiful day (29 degrees apparently), I'm hearing it's been pretty slow...
NDP has surged to second place in southwestern ontario - traditionally royal blue. I do not recommend ever giving up. Strategize and campaign four years out.
BTW, I am watching CBC Manitoba's coverage here: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/Manitoba/1304130959/ID=2141255983
The Free Press also has streaming coverage on its website: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com
As I write this, the CBC website has the Tories leading in 4 of 8 seats, with the NDP over 50% of the vote.
Its way too early, wait until at least 9:45
Edit: This race is going to be very tight, best of luck to the NDP!
NDP is in the lead, but by riding and not popular vote, if I'm reading the stats correctly.
Very few polls from Winnipeg so pop vote reflects that
33 ndp 22 pc 0 l
NDP down 3 seats PC up 5 Lib down 2 PCs need to gain 12 seats -- are not doing it
vote 48% PC 43% NDP
Chief's doing fine in Point Douglas. That's nice to see.
Based on the results with 10/67 polls in, it looks like Lac du Bonnet is going to be a nailbiter.
8 ridings closer than 50 votes and 16 closer than 200 that is reason there is no call yet
Current numbers:
NDP 36
PC 19
LIB 1
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/live-manitoba-provincial-...
Liberals have only 7% in vote-- leader hanging on
NDP Majority has been called
Majority declared.
I think the recent federal success has helped the NDP brand.
Very close popular vote. PC's appear to be ahead slightly in popular vote.