Ontario 2011 election campaign 5

I don't see much evidence that the PC vote is collapsing outside maybe the 416 area and maybe slipping some in the 905 and Ottawa region.  In the north, southwestern and eastern Ontario that doesn't seem to be happening.  This dynamic may mean some big surprises in ridings no one thought were in play.   

Which polls lack regional breakdowns. Pretty much every one I've seen has had regional breakdowns and two have riding breakdowns.

The polls seem pretty consistent to me. And the most exciting thing is the return of the NDP not just in Hamilton and Oshawa but generally in the 905. Although Bramalea-Gore-Malton is the only seat this will likely move, I've been really impressed by the consistency amongst the various regional numbers that put the party in serious contention in the Southwest, North and 416.

So, when do the polls close, exactly?

9:00 pm Thursday night.  

So many polls today.

Who to trust?

Well, as I'm sure most of us here know, the death penalty is wrong anyway. 

Too bad the Americans haven't realized that yet  (the only country in the Western world to still have the death penalty).

Abacus poll - I assume this is the last one of the election?

Decided voters

Liberal  37%

PC       34%

NDP     24%

Likely voters

Liberal  40%

PC       35%

NDP     22%

Best Premier

McGuinty     30%

Hudak         21%

Horwarth     19%  (near tie with Hudak)

unsure        30%

Favourability

Horwath      48% fav./18% unfav.

McGuinty     37% fav./45% unfav.

Hudak        32% fav//48% unfav.   

http://abacusdata.ca/2011/10/04/ontario-election-final-poll-lp-37-pc-34-...

Which polling company to trust?

According to The Globe and Mail, senior PC advisers are saying they are worried.

Which poll to trust? Maybe all of them. The margins are perhaps so slim in swing ridings there's an unusually broad range of possible outcomes.

I believe that is called cherry picking as other polls are showing different things, particularly depending on your area.  And don't get me started that the Green Energy Act being anything but a greenwash of a massive privatization shift of our electricity generation capacity.  It is anything but progressive.

My guess is that we don't know the outcome and neither do the pollsters.  Local races are likely to loom much larger than in previous elections.  At this point I still think it is possible that any of the three could form government, in orders of liklihood of course.  But almost for sure we will be back at it sometime in 2013

I think the right realized he was toast weeks ago. I suspect their internal polling looks bad. The Stun not endorsing him, articles in the Toast and Stun talking about his lacklustre campaign, coverage of how even Bill Davis couldnt really come up with anything nice to say about him, Harper getting Flaherty to endorse him rather than doing it himself...

The homophobic and chain gang garbage seems designed just to get his bedrock fundamentalist (of all faiths) creep vote motivated so he doesnt get wiped out.

But, the tories are the masters of getting old white folks rides to the polls so who knows.

I heard the opposite. Tories being told to vote NDP in swing ridings to get their cherished tax reductions.

Angus Reid-Toronto Star last poll:

PC: 36%

Liberal: 33%

NDP: 26%

Green: 5%

The tightest Ontario election in a generation will come down to the wire with the Progressive Conservatives facing a shutout in the city of Toronto, a new Toronto Star-Angus Reid survey suggests.

In the final major poll before Thursday's vote, the Tories are at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 33 per cent, the New Democrats at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

"It's a statistical dead heat," Jaideep Mukerji, managing director at Angus Reid, said Tuesday.

That means victory will go to the party that can best mobilize its voters, but the Tories may not win one of Toronto's 23 ridings, so must secure 54 of Ontario's remaining 84 seats for a majority in the 107-member Legislature.

"In the last two weeks despite the (televised leaders') debate and all the different controversies, our polling is showing that the race really hasn't changed all that much," said Mukerji.

In last Saturday's poll, Tim Hudak's Tories were at 34 per cent, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals at 33 per cent, Andrea Horwath's New Democrats at 26 per cent, and Mike Schreiner's Greens at 6 per cent.

And on Sept. 17, the numbers were virtually identical: PC 36, Liberal 32, NDP 26 and Greens 6.

"The first part of the campaign is about persuasion and the last part really just turns out to be about getting your voters out. We have a pretty good sense of where the camps are. It's just how effective are they going to be in getting out their vote on Election Day," he said.

"There does seem to be a higher motivation among Tory voters to get out there and vote on Thursday. They realize there's a lot at stake for them."

Indeed, 77 per cent of Conservative-leaning respondents said they "will definitely" vote PC compared with 71 per cent of Liberal-inclined voters sticking with the Grits, 65 per cent of New Democrat supporters casting NDP ballots and 45 per cent of Greens remaining with their party.

"They really don't like Dalton McGuinty and unlike some of the other parties, they don't really see some other alternative for them," the pollster said.

Another factor encouraging Tories to cast ballots could also be increasing buzz about a minority Liberal government propped up by the NDP. Ontarians have not had a hung Parliament since the 1985 election.

"The Tory turnout looks higher than it did a few days ago and I think it might be because they realize this election might be in jeopardy for them," he said.

Demographics may slightly favour the Tories as well - 41 per cent of respondents 55 and older plan to vote PC compared to 36 per cent for the Liberals, 20 per cent for the New Democrats and 2 per cent for the Greens.

"Historically, people that turn out to vote tend to be older Canadians and that's an area where the Tories have an edge over the Liberals," noted Mukerji. Weather across the province is forecast to by sunny with temperatures in the high teens.

The online survey of 2,223 people was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday and is considered accurate to within 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

But there are ominous signs for the Conservatives, including the party's apparent failure to gain traction in Toronto, where they have not won a provincial riding since 1999.

They are mired in third place at 24 per cent in the city. The Liberals, who hold 19 of Toronto's 23 seats, are at 46 per cent. The New Democrats, who have four city seats, are at 27 per cent and the Greens are at 2 per cent.

"There's something to be said for vote efficiency. The Liberals are doing very well in the 416 area," noted Mukerji.

"Even though (the Tories) are at 36 per cent (overall), there's some pretty vote-rich areas, particularly in the 416, where they don't really seem to have made the inroads that they wanted to," he said.

In the 905 region, the Tories are ahead with 41 per cent to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 24 per cent for the NDP and 6 per cent for the Greens.

That suggests both the Conservatives and New Democrats could win GTA seats currently held by the Liberals.

In terms of gender - 40 per cent of men support the Conservatives compared to 31 per cent of women. In contrast, 33 per cent of men and 34 per cent of women back the Liberals. The NDP has 22 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women and the Greens have 4 per cent male and 5 per cent female.

Despite polls indicating his two terms of majority government are at risk, McGuinty still sounds confident, emphasizing he plans to "drive as hard as we can" in the final hours of the campaign.

"I'm after as many seats, as much support, as many MPPs as we can have in order to form a strong, stable Liberal government," he said in the Tory-held riding of Dufferin-Caledon.

Hudak also strived to remain upbeat, but his nervousness about the Liberals pulling off a win was obvious Tuesday as he raised time and again the spectre of a Grit-NDP coalition.

"Ontario families are getting behind the PCs because we're the only party that can actually bring change to Ontario," he said in Ottawa.

But in Toronto Horwath insisted she is "running to be in the top chair" - not to be kingmaker.

"You guys talk about that M-word, 'minority' but I talk about the M-word as 'momentum' and we still have it."

http://speakyourmind.thestar.com/thestar/get-talking/last-poll-of-the-ca...

The most recent poll from Nanos poll which came out yesterday, is showing the Ontario Libs dropping from 42% to 34%, or down 8% from the last election while the NDP has gone from 17% in the last election to 30% now, for an increase of 13%. This means that the NDP has effectively gained 21% on the Libs since the last Ontario election. If this momentum continues, and there is nothing to suggest it won't, the NDP could be overtaking the Libs by tomorrow nite.