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The Manitoba NDP and provincial election 2011: strategy - future - futility? Part 2

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Lens Solution
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Joined: Dec 18 2010

Liberals declared re-elected in their one seat held by leader Jon Gerrard.


Lou Arab
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Joined: Jul 25 2001

Can someone from Manitoba explain how it is the NDP can win a lot of seats in South Winnipeg in provincial elections, yet the area is a dead zone for the NDP federally?


dacckon
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Joined: May 19 2011

Congrats to Greg Selinger and the Manitoba NDP!

 

Its a very hard act to come out of Gary Doer's shadow, a man who was deeply charismatic and connected with the spirit of Manitobans. He truely captured all centre-leaning voters and got a popular vote of around 49.5%. Previously, Selinger's govt was polling around the 20s, and pushed forward to victory.

 

But now a deeper question remains, should the Manitoba NDP push PR? I think the right wing may hop on board with this. AV might be a possibility.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Kerri Irvin-Ross won! Woo hoo!


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

This is actually a surprising result precisely in its sameness. I did think there'd be more nailbiting, and was even hoping for some excitement. It's a very solid endorsement for the NDP.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

So are any Manitoba PC backers screaming about "gerrymandering" yet?

(on edit)

Btw, CBC now finally showing the NDP ahead in the popular vote.  Wonder if that trend will continue the rest of the night.


Lens Solution
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Still a very close popular vote, but the NDP has inched ahead now.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

NDP 45.48%

PC   44.37%


jas
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Lens Solution wrote:

Liberals declared re-elected in their one seat held by leader Jon Gerrard.

Why would they run Hesse against Jennifer Howard? That's a waste of a candidate.

 


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Selinger is actually looking at net gain of one seat. The Tories are currently trailing in St. Norbert, which I figured was an easy pickup for them. As it stands, the Tories have gained ZERO seats in Winnipeg. The only change has been that the NDP has gained one seat from the Liberals.


ghoris
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Spoke too soon. Kirkfield and St. Norbert just flipped to the Tories, but margins are extremely close.


Howard
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Joined: Aug 31 2011

Woohoo!


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

CBC is reporting that in the mock votes for high school students, NDP wins 34 seats. Greens come third.

That's encouraging, too.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Brandon West narrowly called for the PCs. Fingers crossed for a re-count.


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

What an asshole Don Plett is - "When you win 44% of the vote, you should be in government!" and calling the NDP a "campaign of fear".  You don't win government with 44% when the other guys get 46%, dummy. Wow, they are SUPER-bitter right now.


ghoris
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Only 3 seats outstanding:

Tories lead in Kirkfield Park by 53 votes.

Tories lead in St. Norbert by 18 votes.

NDP leads in Interlake by 340 votes.

 

Selinger just interrupted Hugh's speech. Bad form. Guess they were pissed Hugh took so long to concede.


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

Do you think all the happiness around the Jets had something to do with it, too? (...and the awesome summer we had...? Wink )


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

Selinger' speech cut over McFadyen's.

McFadyen announces he's stepping down?

 


ghoris
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Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Hugh! 

Interestingly, Hugh got more votes (percentage-wise) than Gary Filmon did in either 1995 or 1999, in which the Tories got 31 and 24 seats, respectively (versus 19-21 tonight, depending on the outcomes in St. Norbert and Kirkfield Park).

The Tories have no leader waiting in the wings and they still have a caucus full of deadwood. They are going to spend some more time in the wilderness.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

jas wrote:
Do you think all the happiness around the Jets had something to do with it, too? (...and the awesome summer we had...? Wink )

Absolutely. Selinger mentioned that in his ads. Maybe not the Jets per se, but the overall sense of optimism.

Lou asked why the NDP won in South Winnipeg while they don't do well federally, and I'm confused that the same people who just re-elected Greg failed to elect Judy last year. What happened?

Here is my take. The common thread is that since last year, Winnipeggers have re-elected the incumbent administrations at the civic, provincial, and federal levels, because of that optimism. Much of the provincial win was on the back of Doer's popularity, and that machinery was allowed to grow roots into the communities. Obviously many who voted for Harper and Kazt voted for Selinger.

There's an elephant in the room. This election was McFadyen's to lose, and he did. There was a sense that people were tired of the NDP, the NDP was trailing in the polls, and McFadyen should have been able to ride that to victory. He knew that the NDP was going to go after him on privatizing health care, I have no idea why he wasn't able to effectively counter that. Here are his other mis-steps:

  • Promising to hire more doctors and nurses. Okay, the NDP is already promising to do that. As Lakoff says, you re-inforce the frame
  • Promising to balance the budget in 2018. This removed any credibility as financial stewards, as the NDP planned to balance the books in 2014, four years earlier. Especially after previously insisting that a budget should be balanced year over year.
  • They claim crime as a strong point, but I think their plank about tracking sex offenders with GPS hurt them. Even if you don't like the "hug-a-thug" approach of the NDP, I can't imagine people would feel safe with sex offenders being monitored, given the number of high profile, violent crimes involving people violating their bail conditions. If you can't trust sex offenders to not re-offend, most people would want them locked up, given the number of people who violate bail.
  • BipoleIII. The original opposition was based on cost, as moving to the west side of the province was done because of environmental concerns. Instead of turning around the environmental angle, they hammered on cost, effectively boxing themselves in as bean counters who don't care about the environment.

So what now that he has stepped down? Obviously they need new leadership, but I'm not sure the power-brokers will allow what the PC Party needs. Remember that Stuart Murray was told to back off the Crocus scandal in the early 2000s, and had the PCs gone after that, they could have done better. I think someone like Leeann Rowatt would do wonders, she would cut into middle class women's votes that go NDP, and she's likeable. Who else could it be?


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

ghoris wrote:
What an asshole Don Plett is - "When you win 44% of the vote, you should be in government!" and calling the NDP a "campaign of fear".  You don't win government with 44% when the other guys get 46%, dummy.

It seemed to work for Grant Devine in 1986Wink


jas
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Joined: Jun 6 2005

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Who else could it be?

Well, they're talking Myrna Driedger... Wink

 


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004
Really happy with this outcome, because it reinforces the fact that the NDP are good financial stewards.

ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

NDP back in the lead in St. Norbert - 150 votes up with just 4 polls to go! Cool

Sharon Blady still trailing by 50 votes in Kirkfield Park. Those last two polls are taking *forever* to count - must be advance polls, or maybe they're recounting them.

Nevakshonoff re-elected in Interlake by about 500 votes.

An astounding result.


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

ghoris wrote:

What an asshole Don Plett is - "When you win 44% of the vote, you should be in government!" and calling the NDP a "campaign of fear".  You don't win government with 44% when the other guys get 46%, dummy. Wow, they are SUPER-bitter right now.

Looks like the NDP won over 60% of the seats and the Tories won just over a third of them, despite being within 2 points of each other in the popular vote.  Let's hear it for FPTP!  


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

What is Jon Gerrard like politically?  I heard he was actually more progressive on social issues than the NDP in Manitoba - is that true? 


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Dr. Gerrard has spoken a great deal about the shortcomings of health care, and what he feels the NDP can do to be more pro-active and preventive. He raises a great deal of civic issues, like cuts to community policing and the lack of rapid transit, but most people who follow those issues place the blame on the city. On education, I don't think he has ever supported the tuition freeze. As for finance, he leans more towards the right, talking about making Manitoba "competitive" or being a "have province (whatever that's supposed to mean) and he is in favour of reducing "job killing" pay-roll taxes.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

ghoris wrote:
NDP back in the lead in St. Norbert - 150 votes up with just 4 polls to go! Cool

Sharon Blady still trailing by 50 votes in Kirkfield Park. Those last two polls are taking *forever* to count - must be advance polls, or maybe they're recounting them.

CTV has already called both seats as you stated them.


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Will the Manitoba NDP use its renewed majority mandate to bring in proportional representation electoral reform?

Where's Fidel when you need him, to point out that this is a "phony 24% majority"?


ghoris
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Joined: May 29 2003

Free Press is calling St. Norbert for the NDP but CBC has not made the call. Dave Gaudreau has a 85-vote lead with 2 polls left to report.

NDP leading in Kirkfield Park now by 29 votes with 1 poll left to report.


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