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Actually my figures are correct as I used the Nanos polling results for Oc1 1-3.
Is there some reason Nanos didn't publish his polling results only for Oct 3?
No matter how much people want to cherrypick polls, and spin silliness with the help of the mainstream press, the NDP has made huge inroads on the Libs in Ontario since the last election, and I am quite optimistic about the Ontario NDP's chances tomorrow nite.
Yes, sadly it looks like the 30% poll was the wonky 20th time out of 20 poll that's totally wrong.
I have what I think it is a healthy disrespect for all the pollsters as polls are used primarily to manipulate voters. And there is no way to control a pollster, or pollsters, from offering up outrageous polling results during an election campaign as long as just before voting day their polling is reigned back in to closer reflect reality. For anyone to suggest, or infer, that the Ontario NDP have not made huge inroads against the Ontario Libs is absurd.
According to Nanos, Saturday, October 1st was a fantastic day for polling for the NDP (see post #40 above). But Sunday and Monday night's polling showed a significant shift away from the NDP towards the Liberals, with Tory support remaining stagnant. If that trend continues until the end, then a lot of expected NDP gains in Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa and the North could be gone with the wind.
It's certainly possible that Hudak will be shut out of the 416 (he certainly won't make the huge gains that Harper did), but Hudak may have a shot at one seat in the 416 like York Centre or Eglinton-Lawrence according to some people.
True. McGuinty's environmental plan has Dr. David Suzuki's endorsement!
Whether one likes McGuinty in other areas or not, one cannot deny his commitment to the environment.
You don't seem to be so eager to quote dr. Suzuki's condemnation of the Liberal's pro-nuclear policies and how he demanded that the liberals stop lying on their website by making it sound like he was recommending that people vote Liberal.
The only seat in Ottawa the NDP is contending in is Ottawa Centre, and it won't be a terrible thing if it doesn't win there. Both the Liberal and NDP candidates are great (as even the conservative Ottawa Citizen had to acknowledge) In its recent endorsement it gave Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi a slight edge over NDP candidate Abil Naidoo. So voters will be well-served by either man in that riding.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Ottawa+Centre+endorsement+Naqvi+tops+c...
I think you're over interpreting what is probably statistical noise. I don't believe for one second that if saturday had been election day - the ONDP would have won 30% of the vote and that if the election had been the very next day they would have had 24%. We are talking about daily samples of about 250 decided voters and the level of day to day statistical noise is always going to be huge. If nanos ever released daily results of his polls during an entire election campaign - I can assure you it would look like a EKG reading with gyrations for every party on a daily basis.
That raises an interesting question for the next federal election as well. Can the NDP establish itself as the main alternative to the Conservatives, or will many people make sure that doesn't happen? That is why it may remain the case that the Liberals are the only party at the federal level who can defeat the Conservatives.
The Ottawa Citizen, also a conservative newspaper, endorsed McGuinty (grudgingly) over Hudak yesterday. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for McGuinty, but I think it may demonstrate your point that some of the centrist and conservative media are sending the message that McGuinty, while very flawed, is at least more competent and trustworthy than Hudak:
'Hold your nose and vote Liberal'http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/Hold+your+nose+vote+Liberal/5497096...
You're way off topic. This is the Ontario forum for provincial topics.
And give it up with the desperate plugs for the Liberals.
I look forward to any analysis that says that a party with 34 seats, ZERO following in francophone Quebec and a toxic brand image in western Canada could defeat the Conservatives in the next 50 years or so?
The issues are interconnected. Have you not noticed that the Ontario election threads are full of comments about how the Ontario provincial results can affect the federal results and federal election?
It is very much on topic, but it's not something I plan to devote a lot of time to.
It took the NDP 50 years to be Official Opposition. How do you know it won't take that long for them to become Government?
And there is no way to know whether a party that has never held power can do so, particularly when it only had 36 seats 6 months ago. See the dilemma?
One of the things hurting Hudak in Toronto may be Rob Ford:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/toronto-mayor-rob-ford-caught-u...
Steering this thread gently back towards topic, I notice that Lorenzo Berardinetti has put out a home-brewed leaflet indicating his action (or rather his inaction) on the Quarry Lands issue. The fact that it wasn't put together by the central campaign, and that the whole production looks hurried, I'd say this indicates that Lorenzo is hurting bad in Scarborough Southwest. He's realizing his years of snoozing at Queen's Park might well be coming to bite him on the ass tomorrow.
I think that may be a good point. A lot of the underlying indicators in these polls seem to support McGuinty rather than Hudak. Hudak is not in as weak a position as Ignatieff, but he faces some of the same challenges Iggy faced when going up against Harper:
Eg. McGuinty is beating Hudak on the 'Best Premier' question, and the polls like the Abacus one above show many voters think the Ontario economy is doing allright. Horwarth comes 1st on likeability, but McGuinty comes 2nd and Hudak 3rd, which means that Hudak is again finishing below McGuinty. When you are trying to present yourself as more attractive than the incumbent, that is not encouraging.
"I guess you missed all the hysterical articles and editorials in the national Post and the Globe and the Sun begging Ontarians not to give the NDP the balance of power since they might actually pressure the government to do something progressive. the pro-business press wants AUSTERITY and cutbacks. With a Liberal majority - they MIGHT get that. With the NDP having the balance of power - it will nix that whole agenda. the stakes are very high for Bay St - they cannot let the NDP have any influence."
Oh come on, you know I'm just taking the piss. I did read those. That Ibbitson article was particularly funny. He sounded like raging lunatic. On the one hand the NDP's HST cut was blowing a hole in the much needed fiscal capacity of the province, on the other not continuing with the corporate tax reductions will send the Ontario economy the way of Greece. If the NDP had a policy of the sky being blue he would have argued green is the only way to go.
You may be right about that. I've heard that apparently that brochure even makes him look weak and ineffective on the issue, even though it's supposdly his own brochure.
Ibbitson? or Ivison? I think it was John Ivison of the National Post that wrote that ridiculous fear-mongering piece about how the NDP would bring Ontario spiralling into collapse if it was allowed to be part of a Liberal government.
Ibbitson writes for The Globe and Mail, but I think he is also a conservative so he's not much better.
You know that the HST is actually part of the austerity packages being brought in by governments like Greece that are so unpopular? You do know that the GST/HST is massively unpopular in all its incarnations, and that BC recently voted to scrap it? You know there's a good reason that Brad Wall, very much in line ideologically with Harper, hasn't introduced the HST there?
No.
But you're annoying.
You also know that Sweden, Denmark, etc. all have equivalent goods and services taxes, right?
U.S is one of the only OECD countries without one. Let's go that route to fund the state!
U.S is one of the only OECD countries without one. Let's go that route to fund the state!
Just posted by Cathy Crowe, NDP candidate for Toronto Centre, on Facebook:
"Hundreds of cockroaches left on campaign doorstep this morning (again). Thank you campaign team for dealing with this disgusting act and not being intimidated"
Final Forum Research poll:
Lib 37%, PC 36%, NDP 23%
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1065061--liberal-minority-likely-majority-possible-poll-finds?bn=1
I believe Leger may be the absolute final poll of the campaign.
I always want to be as polite as possible on these sorts of boards, but some posters just make it nearly impossible. It never fails to amaze me how Debater always manages to show up for a couple of days when the Liberal Party some spinning and water-carrying done right quick. Maybe he'd be fractionally less annoying if he'd just drop the whole tortured, thoughtful progressive schtick that he likes to shop around here and just openly be the Liberal tub-thumper he so obviously is. If he'd be honest, maybe more people (including me) around here would willing to engage him seriously, but until then, coming across his posts is like stepping around steaming piles you find on a walk through the dog park.