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Actually encourage him, the Martinites, the Raes, and the Dosanjhs to continue big time, as you can see how effective they have been in helping out the Libs party fortunes. ;)
People who have been around can easily and quickly spot who posters are fronting for.
Yes, I think a Liberal minority is the most likely outcome. I know a couple of the pollsters were on CTV today like Frank Graves of EKOS saying it looks like a majority, but I think that will be an effort for McGuinty.
Some of the people I've talked to this month find Hudak a bit creepy, so that may be a factor too. Women in particular don't like him talking about his 3-year old daughter every 2 minutes.
Now of course all politicians are guilty of injecting their kids into the discussion from time to time to give themselves a good family image, and so McGuinty and Howarth also talk about their kids, but you're not supposed to do it 20 times!
In the debate Hudak kept saying "My 3-year old daughter does this" and "My 3-year old daughter does that".
And perhaps the most bizarre thing said in the whole debate:
"My 3-year old daughter can make acronyms out of fridge magnets!"
Given the nature of things right now, what happens in places like Sudbury and Scarborough Southwest (where in both cases, the Liberals are facing very strong NDP challengers, and result could come down to a few hundred votes) could mean the difference between a majority and a minority.
Robert Benzie of the Toronto Star tweeted that Angus Reid has final final numbers that say Libs 37, PC 33, NDP 26. Funny that they went into field for one more day and managed to turn a 3 point PC lead into a 4 point Liberal lead...I guess this is what they call CYA.
I think it will have crossed the minds of more than a few that said daughter would probably make a more convincing leader of the PCs than her dad.
For what it's worth, Angus Reid called the Manitoba numbers almost on the nose. Their poll said NDP 46, PC 43, Liberal 8, Green 3, versus the actual results of NDP 46.0, PC 43.9, Liberal 7.5, Green 2.5.
Here we go again!
Horwath wades into orange crush again today in Guelph
http://www.guelphmercury.com/news/article/604638--horwath-wades-into-ora...
And here it is:
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf
Though the NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario is a bit hard to believe.
Would that be some sort of record?
I'm sure if you never talk with anyone outside downtown Toronto that is perfectly true. However, if you ever bothered to speak with environmentalists in the whole rest of the province you would find a different story. This is exactly why the Liberals are about to be shut out of rural Ontario.
I guess Scarborough-Rouge River is some sort of NDP traditional final rally. That was Jack's last rally on Sunday night May 1 and it is Andrea's last event tonight!
WOw. 78% in Northern Ontario! Sudbury, TB-Superior North, and Kenora seem like locks now, and this puts Sault Ste Marie, and heck maybe even Nipissing into play. I wonder if PSM is included in their definition of "North", I'm guessing not.
Out of just over 1000 people surveyed across the province, how many would there be from Northern Ontario? 50? 60? or less? The margin of error would be ridiculous.
i used to live in the riding , scarborough rouge river, my mom and i drove to see layton last may (-it seemd we were the only chinese people in attendence), now i live in scarborough centre. I am not even bothering to vote tomorrow.
The whole poll is ridiculous. It shows massive regional shifts that just defy logic or on the ground experience.
Since the prediction thread is closed, and this one will probably get closed any minute, here are my predictions:
Lib 59, PC 29, NDP 19
Lib 52, PC 31, NDP 24
Awww, what the hell. I dont know it down to riding by riding so I'll go with a fairy tale projection:
if Angus Reid predicted 27 for the NDP, and the NDP is good at mobilizing its base, as are the tories, lets say
30 NDP (28% of the vote)
42 Liberal (34 % of the vote)
35 PC (34 % of the vote)
Greens 2.8%, et al- 3.2%
I'm treating that number with exactly the seriousness I'm giving to the 52% who are voting Liberal in Toronto. The poll samples for regions are so small, the numbers for individual parties bounce around like a pinball. Although there may be an essential truth in the numbers (The ONDP is poised to do very well in the North), putting any faith in *that* particular number is foolish. Just because AR broke it out into regions, doesn't mean they have any validity.
NDP caucus of 21. And I'll be happy to be pleasantly surprised.
...
NDP 30
Lib 50
PC 27
(predicted, in part, in the hope that Hudak's anti-trans hate pamphlet will bit the PC's big time).
even Elizabeth May has decided to pile on Tim Hudak and reprimand him over the anti-gay flyers. Can't say I have a problem with her doing so:
"I am really offended by the Hudak campaign homophobic and dishonest flyer. Just saw details..."
Oct 4
@ElizabethMay
http://twitter.com/#!/ElizabethMay
Election prediction project has posted its final numbers: Lib 52, PC 38, NDP 17.
While those numbers seem generally about right, I think the Liberals will do slightly better and the Tories slightly worse, with the end result being a narrow Liberal majority. Some of the individual riding calls are a little odd.
Forecast PC gains: Barrie, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Huron-Bruce, Kenora-Rainy River, Kitchener-Conestoga, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Nipissing, Northumberland-Quinte West, Prince Edward-Hastings, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Forecast NDP gains: Algoma-Manitoulin, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Windsor West.
There's a few things (and omissions) in the ONDP platform that I'm not particularly thrilled about. That being said I think the environmental policy is pretty damn good. I questioned the HST thing at first but I'm in Toronto and frankly totally forgot the reality for many Ontarians that they have no choice but to drive. HST was a shift of tax onto working people. Dalton's rebates don't do enough. If you're in the North heating and a car aren't luxuries, they are necessities. The Liberal version of the GEA does encourage more private generation while the NDP wants more public involvement and supports local initiatives like coops are schools putting solar panels on their roofs. They even have target for green energy production that is 5k Megawatts higher than the Liberals. NDP is also anti-Nuke, anti-Coal and anti-mega quarry. The NDP's green plan is a balanced approach which seeks to take the green shift burden off of working people and promote public transit and conservation instead. Which is cheaper for everyone. They are even calling for grants so low-income house owners can retrofit their homes. These people freaking out at Horwath are these sanctimonious middle class environmentalists from Toronto who are willing to create more misery for the working class to enforce their own environmental agenda. These "progressives" have thrown social class out the window. They would rather focus on the environment to comfort their middle class guilt. This is why the Green Party can't break through. Many of its voters are actual lefties supporting social justice but disillusioned by the traditional parties (I don't blame them). They don't research much into GP policy, but if they actually attend a debate with a GP candidate who knows the actual platform of the party, they get turned off fast with its elimination of income taxes, income splitting, etc. Global warming is a threat to society, but we want to have a society that is worth protecting from global warming.
Accidental post. self-delete.
accidental post. self-delete.
Them calling YSW for the Liberals makes me think they've ventured off into the world of fantasy. I would be delighted to read their reasoning for such a prediction.
The site gives far too much weight to incumbents, and only changes the prediction if the incumbent is beyond all hope of saving.