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Ontario 2011 election results
October 6, 2011 - 12:30pm
Post election results and comment here!
Here are the final predictions for EPP (Election Prediction Project) and 308.com. I've also plugged the vote switch figures from the last Angus-Reid poll (see page 4) into the UBC vote forecaster. Taking these three sources, I've put together a 'majority' pick for each riding.
The Liberals would retain 59 seats and lose 13 to the opposition.
The PCs would retain 25 seats and pick up four (Barrie, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Nipissing, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry) from the Liberals.
The NDP would retain 10 seats and pick up nine (Algoma-Manitoulin, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, York South-Weston) from the Liberals.
So the combined final meta-prediction (which happens to match mine earlier) is: Liberal 59, PC 29, NDP 19
I predict the NDP wins Essex
Oh god, I thought we got over projections at the last federal election.
Mr. Morrow thinks that the Liberals will keep London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre and York South-Weston away from the NDP, but lose Kitchener-Conestoga and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex to the Tories.
I predict that we will never learn to get over predictions.
Lon-Fan, Ott Ctr, YSW are all toss ups. They could go either LIB or NDP, depending on GOTV. Projections are rough ballparks only; they don't help us much in very close races like these. NDP could get anywhere between 12 and 22 seats, depending on how the close races break. I am confident the LIBs will win (albeit be taken down a notch), but it could be a narrow win or a comfortable one. It just depends on these close one-on-one battles.
I suggest people look back at the final seat projections from EPP, 308 and Democratic Space for the federal election in May and see how wildly wrong they all were!
Caveat emptor
Seems to have a misprint in 905. He clearly shows possible NDP pickups in Bramalea and Oshawa, yet the range says 0 - 1, not 0 - 2.
Our deadhead rep for team red will likely clean house, and he's barely conscious most of the time.
Yup, thanks Wilf. Fixed.
So here is the average of those 3 predictions
L 55
PC 32
ND 18
I think this average looks credible-- the big variable I think is the strength of the PC vote and how that will affect the NDP-Liberal races.
I think the NDP is going to do well in pop vote but if the PC vote collapses to the Liberals it won't matter as seats will stay Liberal that otherwise would go to the NDP.
I suspect the NDP in the low-to-mid 20s can give the Liberals a run only if the PC vote holds up. I say this because I think the PC vote in some areas is very strong and that it is in many of those key 3-way races where it could go down and if it does that could be bad for the NDP except in places like Oshawa. This could be especially true if you look at the demographics most annoyed by the PC campaign. If indeed the PCs tank in immigrant areas for example-- those include a lot of Lib-NDP contests.
Strangely I think if the NDP take Oshawa it will be due to PC weaknesses and they will pay dearly in other places for bad splits caused by this.
So if the PC vote holds the results could look like this:
L 52
PC 32
NDP 23
If the PC vote tanks the PCs will still do well in key ridings but the NDP will lose more seats than they will so the results could even look like this:
L 63
PC 27
NDP 17
I'm torn between the two types of scenarios in predicting. FPTP is a real bugger...
Then there is the issue of light voting and very tight races and then you have to wonder how many races will end up with almost unpredictable results only a couple points apart. This means with luck flowing one way or another or a better ground game and this could go toward one party or another.
Then there is the question of ease of voting. If it comes down to this-- with buses expensive, and service poorer as some major municipalities cut back on busing this year, will there be a difference between the suffrage rates of people busing as opposed to driving? If you have a car and were at home during the day in my area, voting is an under ten minute investment. If you don't it is about a 40 minute investment in walking and perhaps another 30 minutes in waiting if you have to go in the busier evening time. Some of those shift workers simply may not be able at all, be discouraged from going out of fear of crowds, or might try only to have polls close while they are in line.
It may be that the suffrage rates might have something to do with effort required. If you are retired and are 60-70 years old and still driving voting is a heck of a lot easier than if you are working a 12 hour shift, are young and have no car.
Interestingly many of the voting places are not the easiest to get to by public transit either. They are not selected by distance only but also be available venue. The place I vote is far from most of the people voting. I don't know why they are not using the closer venue they used to use here. This means two apartment buildings worth of people most of whom have no cars will walk a long way through a residential neighborhood they are not familiar with to vote. If they indeed do that.
Municipalities could consider free buses for voting if they wanted to get out the vote... Since voters that use transit are more likely to support public services they might be doing themselves a favour.
BTW I think it is premature to start a results thread so early-- I suggest renaiming it to Ontario election 6 and then start a new one at 9pm for results. The name of this thread is confusing and people might have a harder time finding the start of the results looking back on this if they ever wanted to.
The results thread was created in advance in order to give the editor a chance to put together a front page promo on rabble.ca
When do the polls close?
My prediction is 49 Liberals, 37 PCs, 21 NDP.
NDP pickups are: Algoma-Manitoulin, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Center, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan and Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Windsor West, York South-Weston.
The ridings to watch include Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Essex and Oshawa.
9:00pm Eastern.
Beauty day factor happenin' for the Algoma riding here. I wanted to vote twice for the NDP candidate, but the poll clerk wouldn't allow it. I operate under the pretense that it never hurts to ask.
Polls close at 9pm EST, 8pm CT.
Some polls are extended.
I'm personally worried about Kenora-rainy river. Its tory federally and without the former ndp leader it might turn blue.
^^ Yeah, I'm a bit nervous too. The NDP candidate in Kenora isn't that great, to be honest. But it does help (Kenora, maybe not TB-A) that Fort Frances falls in the provincial boudries.
By the way, toaster, in the predictions thread you were ranking the ridings you thought the NDP would win by what you called "%win" - I was wondering what that meant: the percentage of vote the NDP candidate gets, the candidate's percentage margin of victory, or the percent chance that the candidate wins?
Why does McGuinty keep on reminding me of Anthony Perkins from the movie Psycho.... and Hudak keep on reminding me of Michael Keaton from the movie Beetlejuice?
Go Andrea go!
dp
Threads: the candidate's percentage margin of victory.
I'm seeing early numbers for Sudbury and Temiskaming Cochrane and I'm getting very nervous.
Only a handful of polls. Way too early to draw any conclusions.
Only one small poll last I saw T-C. The riding is largely rural where some polling stations are very one-sided and completely unpredictable of the final vote. In this same riding in the election 5 months ago the Liberal was winning Temiskaming all night, but ended up losing by something like 7 votes based on the last polling station or two to report.
Last minute prediction:
Lib 35.0% (50)
PC 35.5% (40)
NDP 23.0% (17)