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Right.
Now of course the media woiuld never have rigged the news by only showing the interviews they wanted viewers to see.
Of course not.
How naive can one be. LOL!!!
I suppose that one kind of flew by, eh! LOL!
Are we still looking at a PC Majority - that's no good!
Pollster Derek Leebosh of Environics Research Group is predicting a political realignment in Newfoundland and Labrador.
“It's a miniature version of what happened at the federal level in May,” he said.
The Orange Crush surge of NDP support in the federal election that battered the Liberals and lifted the late Jack Layton to Opposition leader will likely be felt here, he said.
In the St. John's region, NDP MPs Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary won with impressive margins, Mr. Leebosh said.
“That's a huge number of people who have gotten into the habit of putting their X beside an NDP candidate. Granted, it was federal, but it does kind of predispose people to go the same way provincially.”
Provincial New Democrats could pick up seats on the northeast Avalon peninsula, which includes St. John's, if that support transfers to provincial candidates, Mr. Leebosh said.
The party has also focused efforts on ridings such as Labrador West, which has been New Democrat in the past, and Burin-Placentia West, where there is anger over Tory handling of the fishery and a major shipyard.
Mr. Leebosh believes the NDP is helped by the “disarray” of the Liberals led by Kevin Aylward, an 11th-hour replacement for Yvonne Jones, who stepped aside in August as she recovers from breast cancer.
“Basically, Lorraine Michael and the NDP are sort of filling that vacuum,” Mr. Leebosh said.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/provincial-elections/ndp-in-nl-aiming-to-oust-liberals-as-second-party/article2196130/
Dig a little deeper into Roger Fitzgerald's performance as Speaker of the House of Assembly - it was embarrassing. He didn't even pretend to be impartial, and almost as bad, he didn't seem to know the basics of parliamentary protocol. His partisanship was very much on display. But as far as these things go, it probably would not have effected his electability if he was still running. As someone who lived in the district of former Liberal Speaker Lloyd Snow, I can attest that few notice these things.
I doubt Darryl Johnson will win this district, although it was suggested in post #53 above that he could be in play. According to CRA & The Telegram Newfoundland's east coast (NE Coast, Burin & Bonavista Peninsulas, but not the Avalon) is the region in which the PCs are doing the best at 49% (and that is a percentage of all polled, including undecideds).
But then, both Burin Placentia West and Labrador West are both likely to buck the trends found in the regional polling data.
Thanks NorthReport.
Another link from the Globe & Mail by Eric Grenier of threehundredeight.com. He makes an interesting point when he says:
I can't find the regional data from the Environics poll, but as Stockholm pointed out above, the CRA polling data for St. John's actually includes the rest of the Avalon Peninsula, where the NDP is not yet a force and likely won't be in this election, such as the North West Avalon, the Southern Shore, St. Mary's Bay, etc.
The one riding on the Avalon outside of greater St. John's that I'll be watching on election night is Bellevue Beach, where they have a do-nothing PC backbencher and a Liberal who is running a vengeance campaign. She was fired from a volunteer position with the rural secretariat of the provincial government over this ridiculous incident. The NDP candidate seems like the only person who seriously wants the job of MHA.
If the Environics data is for St. John's only, that's great news. Although Grenier doesn't tell us what Environics found in terms of the regional breakdown of the undecided voters.
I'll take Derek Leebosh's read over Eric Grenier's anyday.
Tory blowout so far. NDP and Liberals, as expected, duking it out for second. NDP leading Libs in the popular vote 25 to 17, and 4 to 2 in the seat count. Still very early, but the NDP is leading in Burin-Placentia West, Lake Melville, The Straits-White Bay North and Bonavista South.
Early results coming in;
27, 7, 2
All leading, no-one declared elected, but it looks like the NDP will displace the Liberals as Official Opposition.
Again, early days, but the NDP seems to be making some inroads in St. John's so far, leading in Cape St. Francis, St. John's Centre, St. John's East, St. John's North, and Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.
Labrador West is the only seat not yet reporting.
The NDP candidate in The Straits-White Bay North has got a 14-point lead with roughly a third of the polls reporting - was this seat on anyone's radar screen as a possible NDP gain?
See-saw battle in Burin-Placentia West - the NDP was up by 10 votes but is now down by 10 votes.
Lorraine Michael has 70% of the vote in Signal Hill. The other St. John's seats are taking a long time to report.
The NDP has started to fall behind in Labrador West with just under half the polls in.
So far the Liberals are on course to win three seats - the same number they won last time (Cartwright-L'anse au Clair, Bay of Islands and Burgeo-La Poile). They could add a fourth in St. Barbe. The Liberals seem to be holding their own in rural Newfoundland but their vote on the Avalon peninsula has cratered.
CBC just called a majority for the Tories (no surprise there), but it's shaping up to be a photo finish for Official Opposition.
Lorraine Michael declared elected, NDP still leading in 5 but Liberals are leading in 4.
NDP and Liberals tied at 5. The NDP is leading in St. John's North, St. John's Centre and St. John's East but trailing everywhere else in metro St. John's. Christopher Mitchelmore is hanging in there in The Straits-White Bay North. Julie Mitchell is just 25 votes back of Clyde Jackman in Burin-Placentia West. The Liberal candidate is getting less than 5% of the vote there.
Jim Bennett of the Liberals has inched into the lead in St. Barbe, and the Liberals are now in front in Torngat Mountains. Kevin Aylward is well back in St. George's-Stephensville East and looks to have lost.
The Liberals are ahead in Torgat Mountains as well. If the Liberals and NDP are tied in seats, the Liberals remain Official Opposition regardless of the popular vote. I seem to recall this situation occurred in Nova Scotia a few elections ago.
Interesting result with Christopher Mitchelmore, I'd like to know more about him.
I expected more in Labrador West, but nevertheless a fantastic result for the NDP
Oddly enough, the Liberals are losing two of their incumbent seats - Port de Grave and The Straits-White Bay North. I don't think anyone expected them to actually take new seats from the Tories.
The popular vote gap between the Liberals and NDP is starting to narrow too - the Liberals are up to 19 percent and the NDP is down to 24 percent.
The NDP pulled ahead again in Burin-Placentia West and have edged up to 6 seats, one more than the Liberals. The NDP seems to be pulling away in St. John's North, but the leads in St. John's Centre and St. John's East are still very small. There's also a tight race in St. John's West that could go the NDP's way.
NDP now leading again in Burin—Placentia West.
Closing for length.