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"Someone" should definitely speak to the timing possibilities range.
But it is 180 days after the warrant was issued by the Speaker- whenever that was... that is the deadline for when the date for the writ [eday] has to be issued [day the election is announced]. It can be issued for X amount - a long time- after that.
So, by early in March the eday has to be set- and it can be a long time after that.... long enough after the leadership race is over that the NDP can just wait until then before doing anything about the by-election. If Harper chooses to let it be that way, which would be the custom when its wrapped up with a parties leadership race.
For those who remember it, back in 2004, Paul Martin was so afraid of seeing Ed Broadbent win the vacant Ottawa Centre seat that he waited until almost the last possible day to call the by-election, and then the date was set for about 8 months later, ensuring that it would be 'folded in' with a general election call coming that year.
With what we've been seeing Harper doing lately, I still think he'll call the Toronto-Danforth by-election for the Monday before the leadership convention, March 19th, just to show that he can irritate an opposition party whenever he wants to.
It was issued the day the seat became vacant, which was the day Jack died. The information is also on PunditsGuide.
"Waiting for Topp" is a big mistake.
Harper could call the election early, Topp could lose the leadership and decide he doesn't want to run after all.
I would much rather see us nominate someone local early, and get them out on the doorstep right away. We shouldn't take any seat for granted.
It isnt just waiting for Topp. The party would have issues now even if every leadership candidate had a seat- let alone, when has that last happened?
No. The Speaker officially notified the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy August 30th.
http://ndpldr.punditsguide.ca/
A by-election can be called any time between now and February 26th and the by-election would be held at least 36 days later. There is no specified maximum length of the by-election campaign.
The NDP calling for nominations is a crap shoot around the probabilities. Here is my first run through.
1.] Harper can call the election anytime for 36 days later. It could be a snap call to end any time during or soon after the end of the leadrship race [soon after having the same effect]. They would be most unlikely to get the seat anyway, and look very bad to swing voters they need. In other words: fill your boots boys and girls. Still, if there were not other considerations, you would go ahead and do the nominations anyway. But there are other considerations, so it is a matter of weighing pros and cons of the various courses of action.
2.] Topp has said he will not run if it is called during the leadership race- that he cannot do both at once. Whether it is your intention to wait for him and Singh or not, you still have to consider the 'what ifs'. So what if you nominate someone, and then it turns out Harper does the right thing and waits until the race is over? [If for no other reason than to spite us, given we went ahead and did the nominations. And if Topp or the longshot Singh wins, then what? It will put everyone in a difficult position. A big mess.
Add, amend or critiqe probabilities of options as you like.
One thing we know for sure is that the date for the Danforth byelection has to be set at least a month before the NDP picks a new leader. I don't expect Harper to do the NDP any "favours" setting the byelection date in May or something like that. One way or the other - the writ period starts the day the byelection is called. If Topp wants to run in Danforth and if he won the nomination (not necessarily a foregone conclusion when he is still just a candidate for leader) - then it would give him a bit of an unfair advantage over the other leadership candidates since the party would have to spend something like $80k promoting him in the byelection which would coincide with the final phase of the leadership campaign. Its all a bit of a "sticky wicket". If Topp has a "plan B" in his back pocket to run somewhere else (i.e. maybe there is someone in Quebec who never really wanted to be an MP in the first place and is happy to stand aside for him if he becomes leader) then maybe he is better off announcing that he will NOT run in Danforth.
Harper will want the NDP to hold this seat, he knows they cannot win it and he'd rather see the NDP take it then the Liberals. I think it's best for the NDP to go ahead and nominate someone soon. The Liberals will be going after this seat, I'm surprised they don't have a candidate yet, and while the NDP shouldn't have trouble holding onto this seat you never know what could happen.
Winnipeg North is a good example of how you cannot assume a seat is safe. Judy Wasylycia-Leis won 63% of the vote in 2008, while the Liberals only won 9%, she resigns and a popular Liberal increased the party's support by 37% to win the seat.
Actually if Harper had his choice he would probably not mind the Liberals winning an upset victory in Danforth (not that there is much chance of that happening) - its in his interest for the Liberals and NDP to keep fighting each other and to as evenly matched as possible. The last thing he wants is for the Liberal downward spiral to continue and for the anti-Tory vote to totally consolidate behind the NDP.
Do you think it's possible that Harper might be willing to NOT nominate a Tory candidate in the byelection in exchange for the Liberals choosing a nominee from the right wing of their party, and then push for a "coalition" victory against "the socialist hordes", as W.A.C. Bennett might say?
I can almost picture Harper being open to creating a national version of the old B.C. Socreds, the "Yukon Party" or the "Saskatchewan Party"...perhaps they'd call it the Canada Party?
You can forget about that scenario. If for no other reason- kiss of death for the Liberals.
Topp has been saying that if the by- is called during the race he will not offer.
Technically, it will be called during the race. So, presumably that means called, and eday too close to be thinking of nominations after the race is over. I think Stockholm gave another reason for this.
Its not a formal announcement per se, but I heard it from him as an answer at a meet and greet.... a question he probably gets at virtually every event where there are questions put to him.
He also ansers that a seat is important but not critical ASAP. Whether or not you agree with that, it butresses his intention viz the what ifs of running in Danforth or not.
And who might that be? Our oldest MP, Lise St-Denis is 70. A retired teacher, she ran in 2008 in the Montreal suburb of Longueuil where she lives. This year she was parachuted in Chretien's old riding of Saint-Maurice, far away, where she had no ties; she edged the Bloc by 4,600 votes. Shortly after her election, St-Denis was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. But Brian Topp has no ties to Saint-Maurice either. Who else? Dr. Djaouida Sellah in Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert, where she beat the Bloc by 9,000 votes? Maybe she wants to go back to practicing medicine? However, she's a Mulcair supporter. Tyrone Benskin, his presumed ACTRA ally? Never presume: Benskin hasn't endorsed anyone.
Topp's home riding where he grew up in St. lambert. The NDP MP there is Sadia Groguhe, but I have no idea if she is one of the ones who might be looking for an "out". There is another issue no one has mentioned if there was a by election in Quebec. The front runner to succeed Duceppe as BQ leader is the rightwing ex-PQ cabinet Daniel Paille. He lost the NDP in Hochelaga in may and if he becomes leader he also needs a seat. If an NDP MP from a riding that the NDP took from the BQ stepped aside, it would be hard for Paille to avoid running there - setting up a very high stakes NDP/BQ by election.
I think a good option for Topp could be Hull-Aylmer. Nycole Turmel has capped off a stellar career with a stint as Opposition leader, but any shadow cabinet position after her current one will be a step down. She'll be 72 by the time of the next election, so even if the NDP became the government she may be too old for a cabinet position. I could see her stepping aside sooner, for the good of the party, if the new leader needs a seat.
As for Toronto Danforth, is there any talk of Mike or Sarah Layton running for the seat?
I doubt there will be to many MPs willing to give up a $100,000+ job unless they get something out of it.
Absolutely none. Sarah has a young daughter and is pregnant again and i have no idea if she has any interest in running for public office. Mike Layton is just one year into being the city councillor for Trinity-Spadina across town and he seems to have a pretty high profile already and is emerging as one of the key "leaders of the opposition" to Ford. If he ever wanted to move up to another level of government - it would make more sense for him to focus on his current job someday run in Trinity-Spadina when Marchese or Olivia Chow retire.
Danforth should be an NDP lock no matter what - so its not as if the party desparately needs someone with the last name Layton to be able to hold it. As for Peter Tabuns - I'm sure the guy would rather be an MP than be an MPP - but the fact is he ran for re-election to the Ontario legislature just a month ago despite knowing that the federal seat was vacant - I think the idea of him resigning so soon after being re-elected and sparking a provincial byelection in the same riding where there will be a federal byelection is ludicrous.
I think the bottom line on Topp is that he does not have any reason to worry about a seat should he bacome Leader. That he is not just giving that implicit message because he needs to.
1. He needs to win the leadership.
2. He needs to win the leadership.
3. If he wins, and nominations are not closed for Danforth. Perfect. [And likely the same for if he does not win the leadership.]
4. If it is not THAT easy, there are a number of possibilities for a seat where we are not losing someone who wants to be there.
5. But even that isnt necessary. If getting a seat is in the indefinite future- big deal, he's the Leader of the Opposition. He will not have to jump in front of the microphones like Jack did when he was a seatless newbie Leader of a small Caucus.
That said, I still think that does not make the choice of when to push the nomination process an easy one for the party.
If the seat is still open for nominations after the race, I would not be surprised to see Martin Singh offer.
I think he is probably in this come what may. But even if he did follow up the leadership race with a run for a seat, and it did not have to be Nova Scotia... it would also make sense to take a pass on Danforth that a number of others want... and take a run at a Conservative held seat in Mississauga or Brampton, where it will be otherwise probably a long shot for us.
That is by the way not based on any inside information. Beyond the fact that Martin is a positive, charming and persistent guy who is not going to be looking at one big role of the dice.
Very logical, but raises a question for Pierre Ducasse and his fans. He was going to run again in Hull-Aylmer until he stepped aside for Nycole Turmel. Assuming she does not run again in 2015, Pierre would be a logical candidate. If Topp took Hull-Aylmer in a by-election, would he move elsewhere in 2015? Not necessarily.
Pierre did not stand aside for Nycole. He has very young kiids now, and just stood down period. But that does not change your point, and my educated guess is that Pierre will be ready to come back to it whenever there is an opening.
When he stood down it had been nearly 10 years of hard uphill slogging. It is a totaly transformed picture now.
I hope it's Marilyn Churley.
I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!
I hope the executive does a better job than Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is pretty much retired into her sweet gig as justice of the peace. If the NDP has to reach into its distant past for a candidate its in bad shape. Sorry - she was a powerful figure in her day but that day has passed. New blood please!
Well it's the riding association who does a candidate search and not the NDP executive!
Given our caucus composition and strategic position, the last thing we need is to add 'new blood'.
We don't need another person who has never held a seat to be figuring out the gig and climbing the learning curve. The many newbies in our caucus would benefit from having someone like Marilyn Churley sharing her 15 years of experience. She's great as a local member, really listening and working with the community and local groups. And she was great as a opposition member for 10 years and as a cabinet minister - she knew how to push issues and make things happen from both sides of the house.
Next election, we need to present ourselves as a government in waiting. We need to show we have people who understand how government work. We don't need a 'ministeriable' person, but a proven, effective minister.
I've lived in Toronto Danforth most of the time since my family moved here when I was kid in the sixties. I've chatted with friends and neighbours over the past weeks and months and there's lots of warmth and affection and support for Marilyn. It's a pretty political, and by that I mean, NDP political riding. People noticed Topp's statement about not running here. It makes sense to us that he should want to concentrate on his leadership bid. It's not like we've got a tiny caucus, public support in the single digits, and a leader desparate to find somewhere they can win in order to get into the House. Time enough.
We've been blessed with many NDP MPPs and MPs here - John Gilbert, Jim Renwick, Bob Rae, Lynn Macdonald, Gary Malkowski, Peter Tabuns, Jack Layton, Marilyn Churley. Marilyn is up there with the best of them, and has always done well here in her home riding where she has such deep roots. I'd love it if she ran, for the sake of the riding, our caucus, and all Canadians who will benefit from electing a New Democrat government in 2015.
I still think there is a limit to how many time you dippers can go back to the same well and replace yourselves with older less impressive versions of yourself. (ie marilyn).
Where ahs it been said that Topp isn't running in Danforth? is that confirmed?
I'm not sure that Joe meant to say that unqualified.
What Toppe said is that he would like to run ther me:akes sense even for personal/family reasons. But that if the by-election is called during the leadership race, then he cannot do both, and he will pass on Danforth.
[As noted, technically, the by-election has to be called during the leadership race. The actual consideration whether it is called late enough, and with the eday late enough, that nominations can happen after the leadership vote, without the party hobbling itself. If you want to get real technical and 'what if'... it is quite conceivable that the eday would be called for late enough that Brain Topp and/or Martin Singh could say that they are going to offer for Danforth whatever the outcome of the leadership vote. The point Topp was making is that he cannot be expected to run in two full out campaigns at the same time, and he will not.]
For Joe's puropses of the thoughts and conversations in the riding- it is relevant enough that Topp has ruled himself out as definitely offering there.
Yes, KenS is right.
I'm embarrassed to have omitted David Reville from the list. I loved the way he was so approachable and interested, the great work he did on behalf of people with Mental Health issues, and his strong sense of what makes a community and city work. I learned a lot from him when we worked together in Rae's office in 92/93. Renwick and Reville and Churley all came up through working as City Councillors. David exemplified the great style and approach that Marilyn has in spades.
With regard to women, we have a great history here in the East End of Toronto. Agnes MacPhail, Canada's first female MP, represented our area for a while. And I remember working for Kay MacPherson, former President of the National Action Committee on the Status of Women when she ran in the early 70's in the north end of what is now Toronto Danforth, and how she did so well standing up to my overbearing father. ;)