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All numbers in the following post are rough eyeball estimates.
Swings to the NDP, general election over general election, range from +3.71 (Cut Knife--Turtleford) to a jaw-dropping -46.35 (Regina Walsh Acres). The only other seats that saw positive swings to the NDP were Athabasca (+0.97) and Cannington (where, in losing by 60.04% rather than by 61.17%, the NDP ever-so-artfully managed a swing of +1.13). Swings in Saskatoon range from -9.55 (Massey Place) to -25.97 (Southeast). In Regina, the least negative swing for the NDP was the -5.93 swing in Rosemont.
The Regina Walsh Acres numbers are distorted by the fact there was no SaskParty candidate there last time.
This also marks, I believe, the first time that the federal NDP has outpolled the provincial NDP in Saskatchewan.
True enough; annoyingly, I'd actually noted the lack of an SP candidate there in 2007 but forgot to actually factor that in beyond the initial observation. Discounting RWA, the biggest swing against the NDP was the (my estimate, as above) -33.99 in Regina Coronation Park. Reginas Dewdney and Douglas Park also saw swings of more than 30 against the NDP.
I don't think anyone believes "that people who vote Liberal all want to 'stop the Tories'" but, at the federal level, polls have shown that people who tend to support the federal Liberals are much more likely to choose the federal NDP as their second choice, much more so than the Conservatives. These polls also indicate that supporters of the federal NDP are much more likely to choose the federal Liberals as their second choice, much more so than the Conservatives.
Ekos poll - 29 Apr 2011
Second Choice preferences:
Liberal supporters
NDP: 54.1
No 2nd choice: 17.1
Conservatives: 12.6
Green: 12.0
BQ: 3.3
NDP supporters
Liberal: 37%
Green: 19
No 2nd choice: 17.4
Conservative: 13.5
BQ: 10.9
BQ supporters
NDP: 48.6
No 2nd choice: 21.7
Liberals: 13.4
Green: 8.2
Consevatives: 6.9
Green supporters
NDP: 40.3
No 2nd choice: 27.4
Liberals: 17.4
Consrrvatives: 11.0
BQ: 2.6
Conservative supporters
No 2nd choice: 47.4
NDP: 21.0
Liberals: 16.2
Green 11.1
BQ: 0.5
National federal vote intentions:
Conservative: 35.5
NDP: 30.6
Liberal: 19.9
BQ: 6.1
Green: 5.8
After the 2011 election, communities in all of Saskatchewan outside Regina, Saskatoon and the two northern ridings have no voice in the opposition. They have no local voice to question any government action or inaction. Their regions face one-party rule.
If Saskatchewan had a democratic voting system . . .
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-saskatchewan-had-democratic-voting.html
Can't you feel the momentum?
[post83 for the complete run down]
Sorry for being so ill informed- but was Mielli running?
Who would be obvious/likely names from outside the Caucus for leadership?
Bearing in mind that it is even more difficult to guess wo is up, or might be, for such a re-building job.
On the bright side- the way governments and voters are- Wall and the Sask Party will most likely have very much worn out their welcome long before 4 years from now. You can never count on that- but in terms of how difficult the road is likely to be... that probably will be there for room to find the legs and develop.
No, he wasn't. I don't know what he's doing now.
Cmon, if there is one thing that did work last night it was democracy. 64% voted Sask Party.
In a 2 party-system FPTP actually works.
Ryan sought the nomination in Saskatoon Sutherland, but withdrew before the convention. Not running makes it difficult (though not impossible) for him to make a second bid for the leadership.
Ryan got married shortly after the last leadership convention, and he and his wife recently had a child. He's working with the College of Medicine at the University of Saskatchewan and writing a book about the history and future of Medicare.
The likely leadership candidates at the moment are re-elected MLAs Trent Wotherspoon and Cam Broten, and probably only one of Ryan Meili, Yens Pedersen and Noah Evanchuk. Other possible candidates would include MLAs Warren McCall, Danielle Chartier and the newly elected Cathy Sproule. Of that potential cast, Cathy Sproule would be the oldest - a few years younger than me.
That all said, I'm quite adamant that it would be utterly foolish to go straight into a leadership race. The SNDP needs to take some time for reflection, self-examination and real internal renewal. What happened yesterday is far deeper than a leadership problem.
My own timeline would call for about a year of some sort of deliberative process (not sure exactly what it would look like). Effectively, that year wouldn't start before January, reporting to a provincial convention in November of next year with some kind of statement of a vision of modern social democracy - a new Regina Manifesto, if you will. A leadership race in the first half of the next year - so a new leader about June '13.
As a minor footnote, it was pleasing to see both the Liberals and Greens utterly squashed. Bater can howl at the moon all he likes. No-one's going to listen to him.
Ryan Meili sounds like the kind of person who should walk away from the Sask NDP train wreck and instead be the federal NDP candidate in whatever riding is created in Saskatoon that takes in the solidly NDP areas. He would be a great addition to federal caucus and possible cabinet material. I'd like to see him and Noah Evanchuk as a federal NDP "dynamic duo" in Saskatchewan in 2015!
Sounds a wise tack Malcolm- where my thoughts would run if I were there.
The only caveat I would put in is that the [explicit] deliberative process might be too long.
A lot of deliberation is vital. And no leadership vote, or run-up to it, is also essential.
But how process-wise you get that good deliberation is the tricky question.
Nothing focuses people better on questions of direction of the party than a leadership race. It gives multiple groups a reason and a structure for working on that.
The downsides- for the group deliberation process- is that the leadership race also is a lot aboy personailities and leadership styles. The breaking into groups with a plurality of directions to flog is strong enough to outweigh that downside..... but you dont want to be off into all the dynamics of a full fledged race, or close off candidates who migh emerge or grow interested largely because or out of a process of explicit deliberation.
So the prior extended delibeartive process is intuitively the best. Unfortunately, it does not draw as many people in. It tends to be only the policy wonks with a smattering of organizational junkies [who are usually inclined to policy wonking too]. Its hard to give the process the punch it needs.... and there is usually no natural leader capable of breathing life into it.
Something to keep in mind is how the post 1993 debacle federal party formal renewal deliberations blended into the leadrship race- even before it was formally set. And by the latter stages of the Renewal Process, the meetings even hosted leadership candidate debates on the side.
Mind you, to my mind the post-1993 Renewal Process produced some immediately forgetable please everybody and cover all the bases pablum, and there was little or no discussion in the leadership race about alternative directions for the party to take, even with Svend a front runner.
Some of that was the party then. But anytime a process focuses on the policy wonks in the NDP, that is strongly what you tend to get.
An alternative would be to specifically eschew coming out with any final product- let alone a new Regina Manifesto.
Quite the opposite: encourage competing tendencies to come out with alternative 'manifestoes'. And with an eye to the leadership race they are going to organicaly wean themselves away from the satisfy all the constituencies boilerplate stuff, and hone in on agendas that can win compeitions inside the party and on the broader stage.
If you are male. And if you live in Regina, Saskatchewan, and the two northern ridings, yes. In the other 57% of Saskatchewan you are living in one-party regions. Problems with your Health Region in Prairie North, Prince Albert Parkland, Kelsey Trail, Sunrise, Sun Country, Five Hills, Cypress, or Heartland? Who're ya gonna call? Last night Saskatchewan elected nine women and 49 men. Don't blame the voters: polls have shown 90% of Canadians want to see more women elected. If women are nominated we'll elect them. The Saskatchewan Party nominated very few women, because they nominated all candidates one at a time. What would have happened if one-third of MLAs were elected from regions?
If people wanted more women why didn't they elect Deb Higgins in a completely urban riding? Strong, honest member. Im afraid there are bigger factors at play that PR wont fix.
Not to mention that under a PR system, the Saskatchewan Party still has a super-majority that can do what it wants anyways.
Saskatchewan... increasingly coming to resemble Alberta, just no mountains.
Where's the party to the right of the Saskatchewan Party?
The Libs campaigned from the right of the SP. And lost badly.
Closing for length.