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Climate Change general thread Pt.2

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Brian White
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Joined: Jan 26 2005

allah wrote:

Is there any published research indicating what the response time sea-level rise and global temperature increase is to a specific rise in CO2? i.e. when should we expext the general public to notice these effects or are they too gradual to make people aware of the risks?

The rise in sea level is just over 3 mm per year at the moment.  This is hard to measure when you think that normal tides are hugely variable and tides  can easily  be different by 4000 mm in a single day.  The 3 mm figure is only for the last decade or so, it used to be less per year.

I don't think it is possible to make the public alarmed about this in countries other than Netherlands and Bangladesh, etc, even though it affects every country with a coastline. (England is losing land to sea level rise right now).


allah
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Joined: Mar 15 2011

Thanks Brian. What about measured warming? does it take a year or so or a decade to show up?


Gaian
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Joined: Aug 5 2011
Sea levels rising in parts of Indian Ocean; Greenhouse gases play ... www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100713101412.htm 13 Jul 2010 – While a number of areas in the Indian Ocean region are showing sea level rise, the study also indicated the Seychelles Islands and Zanzibar off ... The Maldives and Rising Sea Levels www1.american.edu/ted/ice/maldives.htm Rising sea levels threaten the country's tourism-dependent economy and the ... The Maldives are comprised of nearly 1200 islands and atolls in the Indian Ocean. ..... For decades the people of West Papua have been suffering blatant human ... I. Case Background - II. Environment Aspect - III. Conflict Aspect BBC News | Sci/Tech | Islands disappear under rising seas news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/368892.stm Rising sea level, driven by global climate change, has drowned two islands in ... most of the coastline of the 29 atolls of the Marshall Islands is suffering erosion. ... In the Indian Ocean, the beaches of a third of the 200 inhabited islands of the ...

Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

allah wrote:

Thanks Brian. What about measured warming? does it take a year or so or a decade to show up?

Decades, because most of the warming is not in terms of surface temperatures, but increasing the heat content of the oceans (this is described as the thermal intertia of the oceans). Also it takes decades to establish a statistically significant trend. Which is not to say that the increased incidence of extremes is not important.

Not sure this is the best explanation but I found it quickly.

http://www.stopglobalwarming-newstrategies.net/Thermal-Inertia-of-the-Oc...


allah
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Joined: Mar 15 2011

Excellent response to my question Policy. This is what I was seeking.  Thanks!


M. Spector
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Joined: Feb 19 2005

Quote:
In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution. Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. Those forecast global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit (2.4-6.4 Celsius) by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees (4 Celsius).

Even though global warming sceptics have criticised the climate change panel as being too alarmist, scientists have generally found [the IPCC's] predictions too conservative, Reilly said. He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen. The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios. - The Guardian

In other words, we could now be looking at a more than 6.4 Celsius-degree increase in average global temperatures by 2100, which is catastrophic.


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

allah wrote:

Excellent response to my question Policy. This is what I was seeking.  Thanks!

You're welcome.


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

M. Spector wrote:

Quote:
In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution. Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. Those forecast global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit (2.4-6.4 Celsius) by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees (4 Celsius).

Even though global warming sceptics have criticised the climate change panel as being too alarmist, scientists have generally found [the IPCC's] predictions too conservative, Reilly said. He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen. The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios. - The Guardian

In other words, we could now be looking at a more than 6.4 Celsius-degree increase in average global temperatures by 2100, which is catastrophic.

Technically the IPCC doesn't make predictions; it is an consensus assessment of not quite up to date studies. That is just one reason for its reports being more conservative than most of the actual science.


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

Brian White wrote:

I don't think it is possible to make the public alarmed about this in countries other than Netherlands and Bangladesh, etc, even though it affects every country with a coastline. (England is losing land to sea level rise right now).

Yes, every land with a coastline is affected.

Canada has been losing land dramatically for at least the past two decades, and, especially here on the Quebec coast. Sept-Iles took steps to prevent further land loss by reinforcing their shoreline, as has the small community of Natashquan (birth place of Gilles Vigneault). Here in the even smaller community of Kegaska, shoreline erosion has claimed much land over an even longer period, as absolutely nothing has been done to stop the erosion process, despite many calls to the municipal Administrator.


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

Boom Boom wrote:

Brian White wrote:

I don't think it is possible to make the public alarmed about this in countries other than Netherlands and Bangladesh, etc, even though it affects every country with a coastline. (England is losing land to sea level rise right now).

Yes, every land with a coastline is affected.

Canada has been losing land dramatically for at least the past two decades, and, especially here on the Quebec coast. Sept-Iles took steps to prevent further land loss by reinforcing their shoreline, as has the small community of Natashquan (birth place of Gilles Vigneault). Here in the even smaller community of Kegaska, shoreline erosion has claimed much land over an even longer period, as absolutely nothing has been done to stop the erosion process, despite many calls to the municipal Administrator.

Shoreline erosion occurs without rising sea levels; rising sea levels enhance shoreline erosion in addition to flooding low-lying areas. Richmond and Delta are vulnerable areas in the lower mainland.


Rebecca West
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Joined: Nov 28 2001

Closing for length.


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